Leeds United will aim to keep the pressure on Sheffield United when they take on Stoke City on Boxing Day.
Stoke City and Leeds United clash at the bet365 Stadium on Thursday in a pivotal Championship encounter that carries high stakes for both sides. Leeds, sitting comfortably in second place, are determined to maintain their promotion push, while Stoke are fighting to distance themselves from the relegation zone as they endure a challenging season.
Stoke come into this match on the back of a disappointing 2-0 loss to Sheffield Wednesday. Despite their opponents being reduced to ten men in the 41st minute, the Potters failed to capitalize and ended up conceding twice in the second half. Head coach Narcis Pelach has faced growing criticism for his team’s poor form but tried to highlight some positives from their performance, particularly their aggression and control in the first half. However, their inability to sustain that intensity over 90 minutes has been a recurring issue.
Stoke are currently winless in their last eight matches and have lost four of their last five outings, conceding at least two goals in each. On the positive side, they have been somewhat resilient at home, losing only once in their last eight games at the bet365 Stadium. Yet, five of those results have been draws, indicating a lack of killer instinct when it matters most.
Leeds United, in stark contrast, have been flying high under Daniel Farke. The Whites dominated Oxford United in their last match, securing a commanding 4-0 victory. Their performance was clinical, producing nearly three expected goals (xG) while allowing their opponents zero shots on target. This result showcased why Leeds are one of the most balanced sides in the Championship, with a league-best goal difference of +26. They have scored 41 goals—the most in the division—while conceding just 15, a testament to their solid defence and prolific attack.
Leeds have won nine of their last 13 matches, keeping seven clean sheets in that time. However, they have shown some vulnerability away from home, drawing four and losing two of their last seven away fixtures. Despite this, Daniel Farke’s men are clearly in top form and will look to capitalize on Stoke’s defensive weaknesses.
The key players for Stoke will need to step up if they are to avoid another defeat. The Potters have struggled to maintain defensive solidity, and their attack has lacked sharpness in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Leeds will likely rely on Joel Piroe, their leading scorer, to spearhead their attack. Playmakers such as Brenden Aaronson and Dan James have also been instrumental in Leeds’ success this season. At the back, Pascal Struijk and Liam Cooper will be pivotal in ensuring the Whites maintain their strong defensive record.
Given the stark contrast in form between the two sides, Leeds are heavy favourites heading into this fixture. Stoke’s poor defensive record and inability to capitalize on opportunities make it difficult to see them getting a result against a side as clinical and disciplined as Leeds. Meanwhile, the Whites will look to take advantage of Stoke’s vulnerabilities and continue their promotion charge. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
Stoke City
Stoke City will be without key defensive midfielder Ben Pearson for this crucial fixture, leaving a gap in the middle of the park. In his absence, Tatsuki Seko and Wouter Burger are expected to form a double pivot in midfield, tasked with shielding the defence and initiating attacks.
At the back, centre-backs Ben Wilmot, Michael Rose, and Ben Gibson are likely to form a three-man defence, aiming to provide stability in front of goalkeeper Viktor Johansson. Up front, Thomas Cannon is set to lead the line as the lone striker, supported by attacking midfielders Andrew Moran and Lewis Koumas in advanced roles.
The anticipated formation for Stoke City is a 3-4-2-1. Viktor Johansson will occupy the goalkeeper position, with Ben Wilmot, Michael Rose, and Ben Gibson forming the three-man defensive line. At wing-back, Junior Tchamadeu is expected to feature on the right flank, with Jason Bocat on the left.
In central midfield, Tatsuki Seko and Wouter Burger will operate as the double pivot, aiming to connect defence with attack. The creative duties will fall to Andrew Moran and Lewis Koumas, who will play behind striker Thomas Cannon, providing the attacking impetus for the Potters.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Johansson; Wilmot, Rose, Gibson; Tchamadeu, Seko, Burger, Bocat; Moran, Koumas; Cannon
Leeds United
Leeds United will have to navigate their trip to Stoke without defenders Junior Firpo and Maximilian Wober, both sidelined until early January due to muscle injuries. This leaves manager Daniel Farke with limited options at the back.
Additionally, midfielder Ilia Gruev is unavailable until mid-January, forcing adjustments in the midfield. To further complicate matters, Joe Gelhardt remains out of contention, leaving a gap in attacking options. Despite these challenges, Leeds will rely on their depth to maintain their momentum.
The anticipated formation for Leeds United is a 4-2-3-1 setup. Illan Meslier will take his place between the posts as goalkeeper, shielded by a backline of Jayden Bogle at right-back, Joe Rodon and Ethan Ampadu as the central defensive pair, and Sam Byram occupying the left-back position.
In midfield, Ao Tanaka and Joe Rothwell are expected to operate as the double pivot, providing both defensive cover and creative impetus. The attacking trio supporting the lone striker will consist of Dan James on the right flank, Brenden Aaronson in the central playmaker role, and Manor Solomon on the left wing. Joel Piroe will lead the line as the central striker, tasked with spearheading Leeds’s attack.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Bogle, Rodon, Ampadu, Byram; Tanaka, Rothwell; James, Aaronson, Solomon; Piroe
Key Stats
- Stoke City have won three of their last four home league games against Leeds United, with their only loss in that span being a 3-0 defeat in August 2019.
- Leeds have won three of their last four league games against Stoke, keeping a clean sheet in each of those victories (3-0 and 5-0 in the 2019/20 season and 1-0 in March 2024).
- Stoke have lost only one of their last eight league games on Boxing Day (W4 D3), with their only defeat being a 2-0 loss away to Birmingham City in 2018.
- Leeds have won three of their last 10 Boxing Day league matches (D3 L4), with those wins coming in three consecutive years between 2016 and 2018.
- Leeds manager Daniel Farke has lost his last three Boxing Day league matches, including twice with Norwich City (in 2019 vs. Aston Villa and 2020 vs. Watford) and last year with Leeds United away at Preston.
Player to Watch
Lewis Koumas
The Liverpool loanee has emerged as one of Stoke City’s bright sparks in a challenging season. The young forward has demonstrated his potential with his dynamic movement and technical ability, making him a key figure in Stoke’s attacking setup. Operating either as a wide player or centrally, Koumas has the versatility to exploit defensive gaps and create scoring opportunities.
In a team struggling to find consistency, his energy and willingness to take on defenders stand out. Koumas’s ability to link up play and deliver quality in the final third will be crucial against a Leeds side known for their strong defensive organisation. Facing one of the Championship’s most robust defences, the 19-year-old has the chance to show his mettle and make a significant impact for the Potters on Boxing Day.
Prediction
Stoke City 0-2 Leeds United
While Stoke City’s home form has been respectable, their defensive frailties and lack of consistency will likely cost them against a high-flying Leeds United side. With momentum on their side, the Whites should secure a professional victory, keeping a clean sheet and extending their dominance in the Championship.
