Aston Villa will aim to build upon their win against Manchester City when they take on Newcastle United on Boxing Day.
Newcastle United and Aston Villa meet at St. James’ Park in a high-stakes Boxing Day clash, with both sides eager to strengthen their bids for a top-four finish. Only two points and two places separate these teams in the Premier League table, and the match promises to be a thrilling encounter with plenty at stake.
After a difficult run of just two wins in 11 league games, Newcastle have rediscovered their form with back-to-back 4-0 victories against Leicester City and Ipswich Town. Their emphatic win at Portman Road featured a hat-trick from Alexander Isak, who is proving to be a pivotal figure in Eddie Howe’s attacking lineup. Complemented by Jacob Murphy’s consistent contributions, Newcastle’s frontline appears to be firing on all cylinders.
The Magpies are now eighth in the table, only one point behind Manchester City and two adrift of Aston Villa. They also remain a force to be reckoned with at St James’ Park, where they are unbeaten in their last 15 Premier League home matches against Villa. However, Newcastle’s recent Boxing Day record at home is less favorable, with three consecutive defeats during the festive period, including last year’s 3-1 loss to Nottingham Forest.
With European ambitions firmly in mind, Newcastle have also performed well in cup competitions, reaching the EFL Cup semifinals after defeating Brentford. Eddie Howe’s side will aim to capitalize on their strong home form and maintain pressure on their rivals in the race for European spots.
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa, while impressive at home, have struggled away from Villa Park. The team has lost their last four Premier League away matches, a disappointing streak that includes defeats to Nottingham Forest and other mid-table sides. Despite this, Villa remain sixth in the standings, thanks to their recent victory over Manchester City, where goals from Jhon Duran and Morgan Rogers sealed a crucial 2-1 win.
Villa’s poor away record stands in sharp contrast to their otherwise strong form. The Birmingham club has notched important victories in the Champions League and domestic league this season. However, they are looking to end their Boxing Day curse, having lost their first post-Christmas fixture in each of the last three seasons, conceding three goals on every occasion.
Unai Emery will demand a response from his players as they aim to end their away struggles. A win at St James’ Park would be a statement of intent, showing that Villa can contend with top-tier opposition away from home. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
Newcastle United
Newcastle United will see the return of Joelinton from suspension, but his involvement remains uncertain due to a facial injury that required stitches after the recent EFL Cup victory over Brentford. Meanwhile, Joe Willock, who picked up a minor knock during the match against Ipswich, is expected to be available for selection. However, the Magpies are still dealing with several key absences, including first-choice goalkeeper Nick Pope, Callum Wilson, Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles, and Emil Krafth.
With Callum Wilson unavailable, Alexander Isak will continue to lead the line, having already netted 23 Premier League goals in 2024. His form places him among the league’s top scorers for the year, trailing only Erling Haaland (26) and Cole Palmer (25). Jacob Murphy, in fine form with multiple goal involvements across his last three league matches, is likely to retain his spot and provide support alongside Anthony Gordon in Newcastle’s attacking setup.
The Magpies are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Martin Dubravka will start as the goalkeeper, with Tino Livramento occupying the right-back position and Lewis Hall deployed on the left. Fabian Schar and Dan Burn will form the central defensive partnership.
In midfield, Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes will operate as the holding duo, providing a balance of defensive coverage and playmaking capabilities. Joe Willock is anticipated to take on a more advanced midfield role.
In attack, Jacob Murphy and Anthony Gordon will flank Alexander Isak, who leads the line as the striker. Murphy and Gordon will provide width and creativity, while Isak will spearhead the Magpies’ offensive efforts with his clinical finishing.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Dubravka; Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall; Tonali, Guimaraes; Willock; Murphy, Isak, Gordon
Aston Villa
Aston Villa’s attacking setup remains uncertain, as Ollie Watkins could be recalled to the starting lineup after being used sparingly in recent matches. However, Jhon Duran has been in excellent form, having scored four decisive goals in the Premier League this season. Additionally, Duran boasts the best minutes-per-goal ratio in the league, finding the net once every 80 minutes. Both Watkins and Duran have scored seven top-flight goals this term, but Unai Emery has so far refrained from pairing the two together, prioritizing midfield strength.
In midfield, Amadou Onana is likely to retain his place alongside Boubacar Kamara and Youri Tielemans, providing stability and creativity in the centre of the pitch. On the positive side, Leon Bailey has recently returned from a muscular injury, adding depth to the squad, while Jacob Ramsey has resumed training, though he will not feature in this fixture. Emery is fortunate to have an almost fully fit squad available for the trip to St James’ Park.
Aston Villa are expected to adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation. Emiliano Martinez will start in goal, providing leadership and shot-stopping expertise. Matty Cash and Lucas Digne will occupy the right and left full-back roles, respectively, with Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres forming the central defensive duo.
In midfield, Boubacar Kamara and Amadou Onana will operate as the defensive pivot, offering protection to the backline while contributing to ball progression. Youri Tielemans will play in an advanced midfield role, flanked by John McGinn on the right and Morgan Rogers on the left, adding creativity and attacking intent.
Leading the attack will be Jhon Duran, whose sharp finishing and ability to capitalize on chances make him a significant threat to Newcastle’s defence.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Kamara, Onana; McGinn, Tielemans, Rogers; Duran
Key Stats
- Newcastle United are unbeaten in their last 15 Premier League home games against Aston Villa (9 wins, 6 draws) since a 3-0 loss in April 2005. They have won the last three home meetings by an aggregate score of 10-1.
- Aston Villa have lost four of their last five Premier League encounters with Newcastle (1 win), including both meetings last season. The last time Villa lost three consecutive games to the Magpies was between January 2013 and February 2014.
- Newcastle (16) and Aston Villa (15) have lost more Premier League games on Boxing Day than any other teams in the competition’s history.
- Newcastle have lost their last three Boxing Day home matches, including a 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest last year. This is the longest such streak in their league history.
- Aston Villa have lost on Boxing Day in each of the last three seasons, conceding three goals in every defeat. The last time they lost on Boxing Day in four consecutive league campaigns was between 1932-33 and 1935-36.
Player to Watch
Jhon Duran
With seven goals already in the league, Duran has proven to be a decisive figure for Unai Emery’s side. What sets him apart is his ability to influence games in key moments, as evidenced by his league-high four match-winning goals this campaign.
Duran boasts the best minutes-per-goal ratio in the Premier League, scoring every 80 minutes on average. His physical presence, pace, and knack for finding the back of the net make him a constant threat to opposing defences. Against Newcastle, a team with a solid backline, Duran’s ability to exploit spaces and convert chances will be vital.
Although he faces competition from Ollie Watkins for the starting striker role, Duran’s clinical finishing and impact off the bench have made him an invaluable asset. Whether starting or as a substitute, expect him to be a pivotal player for Villa as they aim to break their poor Boxing Day record and secure a result at St. James’ Park.
Prediction
Newcastle United 2-1 Aston Villa
While Aston Villa have the quality to trouble Newcastle, their dismal away form and Boxing Day woes make it difficult to back them against a rejuvenated Magpies side. With Alexander Isak in scintillating form and Newcastle’s home advantage, they are favourites to edge a closely contested match. Villa will likely put up a fight, but Newcastle’s defensive solidity and attacking firepower should be enough to secure all three points.
