AC Milan will aim to close the gap to the top six when they take on Genoa at the San Siro on Sunday evening.
After a strong European showing midweek, AC Milan return to Serie A action on Sunday evening, hosting an in-form Genoa side at the iconic San Siro. While Milan look to rebound from a league defeat to Atalanta, Genoa come into the clash unbeaten in their last five matches, buoyed by newfound defensive solidity under Patrick Vieira.
Milan’s 2-0 victory over Red Star Belgrade on Wednesday marked their fourth consecutive win in the Champions League, keeping them within touching distance of an automatic Last 16 qualification spot. Goals from Rafael Leao and Tammy Abraham showcased their attacking quality, but coach Paulo Fonseca was unimpressed with the team’s overall attitude, hinting at changes to the lineup.
Domestically, Milan’s situation is less rosy. A 2-1 defeat to Atalanta last weekend left the Rossoneri 12 points adrift of the league leaders, effectively ending their title aspirations for this season. However, with three league matches remaining before the year’s end, Milan will look to finish strongly, starting with Genoa.
Historically, Milan have dominated this fixture, losing just one of their last 13 Serie A meetings with the Grifone and scoring at least twice in eight of the last 10 encounters. Additionally, they have kept five clean sheets in seven home league matches this season, further highlighting their strength at San Siro.
Since Patrick Vieira took charge at Genoa, the Ligurian club has shown marked improvement in performance and results. The Grifone are unbeaten in five matches, keeping three clean sheets and winning their last two away games without conceding a goal. Under Vieira, Genoa have become a more cohesive and tactically disciplined side, evident in their increased passing accuracy and reduced defensive errors.
Genoa’s confidence will be bolstered by their last visit to San Siro in May, where they managed to snatch a point in a thrilling 3-3 draw. Despite their resurgence, however, facing a wounded Milan side at their fortress presents a formidable challenge. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
AC Milan
The home side’s squad depth will be tested on Sunday evening, with a number of key players unavailable due to injury. Ruben Loftus-Cheek is ruled out with a thigh injury, while Christian Pulisic remains sidelined with a calf problem. Additionally, Alvaro Morata picked up a knock during the midweek win over Red Star Belgrade, making him a major doubt. Tammy Abraham is likely to start up front in his place.
The Rossoneri will also be without Ismael Bennacer, Luka Jovic, and Alessandro Florenzi, further limiting Paulo Fonseca’s options in midfield and attack. Despite these setbacks, the form of Rafael Leao, who has been involved in three goals in his last four league appearances, offers hope for Milan’s attacking prospects.
Paulo Fonseca is expected to line his side up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on defensive stability while utilising the creative flair of his attacking players.
In goal, Mike Maignan will take charge, providing reliability between the sticks. The defensive line will feature Emerson at right-back, Matteo Gabbia and Malick Thiaw as the central defensive pairing, and Theo Hernandez at left-back. Hernandez will also play a key role in supporting Milan’s offensive transitions with his overlapping runs.
The double pivot in midfield is likely to include Youssouf Fofana and Yunus Musah, who will be tasked with breaking up Genoass attacks and linking play with the forward line.
The attacking midfield trio will see Samuel Chukwueze on the right wing, Tijjani Reijnders in the central playmaking role, and Rafael Leao on the left flank. Leao’s pace and ability to cut inside will be crucial in creating chances and stretching Genoa’s defence.
Leading the line will be Tammy Abraham, stepping in for the injured Alvaro Morata. Abraham’s physical presence and finishing ability will be vital in converting Milan’s chances into goals.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson, Gabbia, Thiaw, Hernandez; Fofana, Musah; Chukwueze, Reijnders, Leao; Abraham
Genoa CFC
Patrick Vieira will return to San Siro with familiar faces, as Mario Balotelli and Junior Messias make a return to their former club. While Balotelli is unlikely to start, he could make an appearance off the bench, playing at San Siro in Serie A for the first time in over eight years. Leading the line will instead be top scorer Andrea Pinamonti, who has been a vital part of Genoa’s attack this season.
In defence, Vieira can call upon Johan Vasquez, who returns to the squad after serving a suspension in the 0-0 draw against Torino. However, Genoa will be without several key players due to injury, including Koni De Winter, Jeff Ekhator, Caleb Ekuban, Ruslan Malinovskyi, and former AC Milan forward Junior Messias, limiting Vieira’s options as he prepares for a challenging trip to Milan.
Vieira is expected to field a 4-3-2-1 formation to balance defensive organisation with attacking intent. In goal, Nicola Leali will continue to provide a steady presence between the sticks. The back four is likely to feature Stefano Sabelli at right-back, Mattia Bani and Johan Vasquez as the central defensive duo, and Aaron Martin at left-back. This defensive line will aim to neutralize Milan’s dynamic attackers.
In midfield, Morten Frendrup, Milan Badelj, and Morten Thorsby will form a solid trio, tasked with disrupting Milan’s possession and initiating transitions. Frendrup and Thorsby will provide energy and defensive cover, while Badelj will dictate the tempo from a deeper position.
The attacking midfield roles will likely be occupied by Alessandro Zanoli and Fabio Miretti, who will operate just behind the lone striker, Andrea Pinamonti. Pinamonti’s movement and clinical finishing will be key to Genoa’s chances of finding the back of the net, particularly on counter-attacks and set pieces.
Probable Lineup (4-3-2-1): Leali; Sabelli, Bani, Vasquez, Martin; Frendrup, Badelj, Thorsby; Zanoli, Miretti; Pinamonti
Key Stats
- Milan have lost just one of their last 13 Serie A matches against Genoa (W9 D3). Genoa’s only victory during this period came in March 2020, a 2-1 win with goals from Goran Pandev and Francesco Cassata, while Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored for Milan.
- Genoa drew their last away match at San Siro against Milan (3-3), after having lost five of their previous seven visits (W1 D1). The last time Genoa drew two or more consecutive away games against Milan in Serie A was in 1981 when they drew three straight.
- Milan have scored at least two goals in eight of their last ten league games against Genoa. This is as many times as they managed in the previous 36 encounters, underlining their improved offensive efficiency in this fixture.
- Genoa are unbeaten in their last five league matches (W2 D3), keeping three clean sheets during this period. The last time they went on a longer unbeaten run in Serie A was between December 2023 and February 2024, when they avoided defeat in eight consecutive games.
- Milan have kept a clean sheet in five of their seven home Serie A matches this season. The last time they managed more clean sheets in their first eight home games of a Serie A season was in 2002/03, when they achieved seven.
Player to Watch
Rafael Leao
Leao remains AC Milan’s standout performer and the player to watch as they take on Genoa at San Siro. The Portuguese winger has been a driving force in Milan’s attack this season, and his recent form has been exceptional. Revitalised since his stellar display at the Bernabeu last month, Leão has contributed to three goals in his last four Serie A appearances, nearly equaling his output from his first nine games this term.
Known for his electrifying pace, technical skills, and ability to beat defenders in one-on-one situations, the Portuguese star is a constant menace on the left flank. His ability to cut inside and either create opportunities for teammates or unleash powerful shots makes him Milan’s most versatile and dangerous attacking threat. Against a Genoa defence that has shown improvement in recent weeks, Leao’s creativity and unpredictability will be key to breaking them down.
Additionally, his chemistry with Milan’s other attacking players, including Tammy Abraham and Tijjani Reijnders, could be pivotal in unlocking Genoa’s compact setup. If Milan are to rebound from their recent league setback and secure a much-needed win, expect Rafael Leoo to be at the heart of everything positive for the Rossoneri.
Prediction
AC Milan 2-1 Genoa CFC
Milan’s superior attacking firepower, led by Rafael Leao and Tammy Abraham, will go up against a Genoa defence that has shown resilience in recent weeks. Vieira’s tactical acumen and Genoa’s improved organisation could make this a closer contest than the form book suggests.
While Genoa’s recent form will make this a competitive encounter, Milan’s quality in attack and their strong home record should ultimately see them prevail. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for Paulo Fonseca and his charges.
