Paraguay face an uphill task against World champions Argentina in their CONMEBOL FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier on Thursday night.
In a pivotal World Cup qualifying match, leaders Argentina travel to Asuncion to face a defensively solid Paraguay side on Thursday night. While Lionel Scaloni’s men are on track for a smooth qualification to defend their title in 2026, Paraguay’s defensive resilience and recent form under manager Gustavo Alfaro present a potentially tricky challenge.
Argentina have been impressive in the CONMEBOL qualifiers, with a recent 6-0 win over Bolivia, where Lionel Messi scored a hat-trick and assisted twice. This victory put them at 22 points, well on their way to securing a spot in the finals. Scaloni’s team are focused on securing the top position in the standings — a feat they have not achieved in the last two qualifying cycles.
The Albiceleste are not easily deterred by away games, having collected 10 points from five road fixtures, four points more than any other South American team. However, they have recently dropped points away, losing to Colombia in September and drawing with Venezuela last month.
Facing Paraguay will be challenging, as they were the last team to keep Argentina scoreless in an away game, back in 2021. Meetings between these two sides tend to be low-scoring, with the last seven encounters producing only seven goals. Paraguay have proven to be a disciplined defensive unit, aiming to disrupt Argentina’s rhythm and replicate past successes against the reigning champions.
Paraguay, managed by Gustavo Alfaro, are climbing the standings and currently sit in an automatic qualification position. With just four goals scored and four conceded in their 10 qualifiers, Paraguay’s pragmatism under Alfaro has been highly effective. Their recent form, taking eight points from four games, has propelled them from long shots to serious contenders for a qualifying spot.
Alfaro’s strategy has been to win at home and draw away, a formula that has served well in the South American qualifiers. Notably, Paraguay beat Brazil and held Uruguay to a draw in September, followed by a draw with Ecuador and a narrow 2-1 victory over Venezuela last month.
That win against Venezuela was the only match in their campaign to produce more than one goal, highlighting their conservative yet effective approach. Paraguay’s low-scoring matches often reflect their tight defensive structure, which they’ll aim to employ against Argentina. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
Paraguay
Gustavo Alfaro will lead Paraguay against his home nation, Argentina, with a squad largely composed of players familiar with Argentine football, as seven members currently play in Argentina’s domestic leagues. The squad remains almost unchanged from last month’s roster, but there are some concerns regarding the lack of game time for many of Paraguay’s attacking players.
Antonio Sanabria recently regained a place in Torino’s starting lineup after his impressive brace against Venezuela in October, which will be a boost for Paraguay’s offence. However, Miguel Almiron, Julio Enciso, and Ramon Sosa, who operate in the Premier League, have struggled for regular minutes at their respective clubs, which could affect their sharpness in this fixture.
In a likely 5-2-3 setup, Roberto Fernandez is expected to start as the goalkeeper. The five-man defence will feature Juan Caceres at right-back, with Gustavo Gomez, Fabian Balbuena, and Junior Alonso as the central defenders, and Omar Alderete in the left-back position. This defensive line will aim to maintain Paraguay’s disciplined approach against Argentina’s potent attack.
In midfield, Andres Cubas will pair with Diego Gomez in a double-pivot role, providing defensive coverage and aiding transitions. The attacking trio will include Miguel Almiron on the right wing, Antonio Sanabria as the central striker, and Julio Enciso on the left wing. This frontline, although facing limited club minutes, will look to capitalize on any counter-attacking opportunities against the Argentine defence.
Probable Lineup (5-2-3): Fernandez; Caceres, G Gomez, Alderete, Balbuena, Alonso; Cubas, D Gomez; Almiron, Sanabria, Enciso
Argentina
Lionel Scaloni is expected to bring some familiar faces back into the lineup. Midfielder Enzo Fernandez has seen reduced game time recently at Chelsea but remains a key figure in Argentina’s midfield and is likely to start.
Giovani Lo Celso has recovered from the injury that ruled him out during the October international break, and his return could see Scaloni opt for a more balanced lineup, potentially sacrificing Lautaro Martinez for Lo Celso in an away setting.
In goal, Emiliano Martinez will return to the starting lineup after serving a two-match suspension last month, replacing Geronimo Rulli as Argentina’s number one. In a probable 4-4-2 setup, Emiliano Martinez will start in goal. The backline will likely feature Nahuel Molina at right-back, Nicolas Otamendi and Cristian Romero as the centre-backs, and Nicolas Tagliafico at left-back, providing experience and stability to Argentina’s defence.
In midfield, Rodrigo De Paul and Enzo Fernandez will take up central roles, offering both defensive support and playmaking. Giovani Lo Celso, back from injury, is expected to occupy the left side of midfield, while Alexis Mac Allister will play on the right, adding creativity and balance to the formation.
Up front, Lionel Messi will operate alongside Julian Alvarez in attack, forming a dynamic partnership. Messi’s playmaking ability and Alvarez’s movement will aim to break down Paraguay’s disciplined defence.
Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Martinez; Molina, Otamendi, Romero, Tagliafico; De Paul, Enzo, Lo Celso, Mac Allister; Messi, Alvarez
Key Stats
- Paraguay have one of the best defensive records in the CONMEBOL qualifiers, conceding only four goals in their 10 matches.
- Argentina are unbeaten in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, leading the standings with 22 points. They have scored 20 goals and conceded just two.
- Argentina have taken ten points from five away games in the qualifiers, the highest of any team in CONMEBOL.
- Argentina have won just three of their last 13 qualifiers against Paraguay this century.
- The last seven encounters between Paraguay and Argentina have produced just seven goals combined, with the last two games held in Paraguay ending in goalless draws.
Player to Watch
Lionel Messi
Messi remains the central figure for Argentina as they face Paraguay in this World Cup qualifier. Fresh off a masterclass in his previous match, where he scored a hat-trick and provided two assists in a 6-0 win over Bolivia, Messi’s form is peaking at a crucial stage in Argentina’s qualifying campaign. His vision, technical skill, and playmaking ability have been instrumental in his team’s dominant run, and he continues to be the team’s creative heartbeat.
Against a defensively solid Paraguay, Messi’s ability to unlock compact defences will be essential. Paraguay have a strong record of keeping games low-scoring, and Argentina will need Messi’s precision in passing and free-kick threat to break through. Additionally, his partnership with Julian Alvarez up front adds another layer to Argentina’s attack, as the two can combine to exploit any gaps in Paraguay’s backline.
Prediction
Paraguay 0-1 Argentina
While Argentina come into this match as the favourites, Paraguay’s strong home form and defensive discipline could keep them competitive. Argentina’s superior firepower and Lionel Messi’s influence may ultimately break down Paraguay’s defences.
Expect a tight, defensive battle with Argentina finding a way through Paraguay’s defences, likely through a moment of magic from Messi or a set-piece opportunity. The Hard Tackle predicts a hard-fought 1-0 win for Lionel Scaloni and his charges.
