AC Milan will take on Lecce in the early Serie A clash on Friday night at the San Siro
Fresh off a morale-boosting victory in the Derby della Madonnina, AC Milan will be eager to extend their winning run when they host Lecce at San Siro on Friday evening. The Rossoneri, who endured a rocky start to the season, seem to have turned a corner under manager Paulo Fonseca, as they secured a crucial 2-1 win against their city rivals Inter Milan last week.
Matteo Gabbia’s late header not only ended Milan’s six-game losing streak in the derby but also provided Fonseca with a much-needed respite. The coach, who had faced mounting pressure after a disappointing start in both Serie A and the Champions League, made a tactical switch that paid off against Inter, with Christian Pulisic giving the Rossoneri an early lead.
Now sitting in sixth place with eight points from five matches, Milan are looking to gain further momentum before their challenging midweek clash with Bayer Leverkusen in Europe. Their opponents, Lecce, arrive at San Siro without a victory since August and will be desperate to end their winless streak.
Despite a decent start to the season, Luca Gotti’s side has struggled in recent weeks, highlighted by their early exit from the Coppa Italia at the hands of Serie B side Sassuolo. The Salentini’s inability to hold onto leads was evident last weekend as they conceded twice in stoppage time against Parma, turning a certain victory into a disappointing draw.
The history between these two clubs doesn’t bode well for Lecce, who have not beaten Milan in Serie A since April 2006. Moreover, Milan have been dominant in recent meetings, remaining unbeaten in their last 12 encounters and outscoring Lecce 29-12 during that span. With Milan’s confidence sky-high and Lecce struggling for form, the Rossoneri will be firm favourites to take all three points. The Hard Tackle explores the possible lineups and strategies for this much-awaited match.
Team News & Tactics
AC Milan
Milan could face some selection dilemmas ahead of their clash with Lecce, especially given the upcoming Champions League fixture against Bayer Leverkusen. In the recent derby win over Inter, manager Paulo Fonseca opted to start Alvaro Morata and Tammy Abraham together in a more attacking setup.
Whether Fonseca sticks with this two-striker formation or reverts to a more traditional lineup remains to be seen. Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic, who has been the team’s top scorer this season, are expected to feature in the eleven unless Fonseca opts to rest some key players. If he chooses to rotate, Noah Okafor and Samuel Chukwueze are on standby to step in and provide attacking depth.
On the injury front, Milan have a few concerns. Marco Sportiello is sidelined due to a hand injury, while Ismael Bennacer remains out with an ankle problem. Alessandro Florenzi is continuing his recovery from an ACL injury, which rules him out of action for the foreseeable future. Additionally, captain Davide Calabria is a major doubt due to a muscular issue, which could force Fonseca to adjust his defensive lineup for this match.
In terms of the probable lineup, Mike Maignan is expected to start in goal. The back four will likely consist of Emerson Royal on the right, Fikayo Tomori and Matteo Gabbia as the central defenders, and Theo Hernandez on the left.
In midfield, Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders are set to form a double pivot, providing a solid base for the more advanced attacking trio. Christian Pulisic, who has been in fine form this season, will operate on the right flank, with Alvaro Morata in the central attacking role and Rafael Leao on the left. Up front, Tammy Abraham is expected to lead the line as the central striker.
This setup provides Milan with a balance of defensive solidity and attacking fluidity, allowing them to maintain their winning momentum in Serie A while keeping some energy in reserve for their challenging Champions League encounter.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson, Tomori, Gabbia, Hernandez; Fofana, Reijnders; Pulisic, Morata, Leao; Abraham
US Lecce
Lecce will revert to a stronger lineup for their trip to San Siro after making several changes during their midweek Coppa Italia clash. Key players Federico Baschirotto and Nikola Krstovic were rested for the cup tie but are expected to return to the starting XI against AC Milan.
Krstovic has been Lecce’s standout performer this season, being the only player to score more than once for the Giallorossi. First-choice goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone is also set to return between the posts, with former AC Milan forward Ante Rebic likely to feature against his old club.
French full-back Frederic Guilbert will miss out on this fixture after being sent off in last week’s draw against Parma. His absence means that Andy Pelmard will probably take his place in the defensive line. Lecce will also be without Mohamed Kaba, who is recovering from an ACL injury, and Medon Berisha, who is sidelined with a thigh problem. These absences pose a challenge for manager Luca Gotti as he looks to navigate a tough fixture against Milan.
In the 4-2-3-1 setup, Wladimiro Falcone will take his place in goal, supported by a back four consisting of Andy Pelmard on the right, Kialonda Gaspar and Federico Baschirotto as the central defenders, and Antonino Gallo at left-back. The midfield will likely see Ylber Ramadani and Lassana Coulibaly as the double pivot, providing both defensive cover and creative support.
Ahead of them, the in-demand Patrick Dorgu is set to play on the right wing, with Ante Rebic in the number ten role, and Tete Morente on the left. Nikola Krstovic is expected to lead the line as the lone striker, looking to add to his goal tally this season.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Falcone; Pelmard, Gaspar, Baschirotto, Gallo; Ramadani, Coulibaly; Dorgu, Rebic, Morente; Krstovic
Key Stats
- AC Milan have avoided defeat in 24 of their last 25 Serie A matches against Lecce (W13 D11), scoring an average of 2.3 goals per game (57 goals in total). Lecce’s only win in this period came in April 2006 at Via del Mare (1-0).
- Milan have won 10 of their last 11 home games against Lecce in Serie A (D1), scoring 32 goals (2.9 per game) and conceding only six. Lecce have only achieved one away win against Milan in 18 previous such games in the competition (D3 L14), which was a 2-1 victory in October 1997.
- After winning only one of their previous 10 league matches (D6 L3), Milan have now secured back-to-back Serie A wins for the first time since March and April 2024, when they had a run of five consecutive victories.
- Milan have avoided defeat in 15 of their last 16 home games in Serie A (W10 D5), scoring in each of these matches (37 goals, 2.3 per game). Their only defeat at home during this period was against Inter Milan in April.
- Following their draws against Torino (0-0) and Parma (2-2), Lecce could draw at least three consecutive Serie A matches for the first time since November and December 2023, a run that included a goalless draw against Milan at Via del Mare stadium.
Player to Watch
Rafael Leao
Rafael Leao is a key player for AC Milan, known for his explosive pace, dribbling skills, and ability to change the game with moments of brilliance. His versatility allows him to play both as a winger and a forward, making him a constant threat to any defence.
After a quiet start to the season, Leao has started to find his rhythm, providing crucial assists and goals for the Rossoneri. With his creative flair and ability to take on defenders one-on-one, he can break down Lecce’s defence and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates.
Leao’s ability to cut inside and unleash powerful shots, coupled with his knack for finding space in the box, will be vital for Milan as they seek to continue their winning momentum. His performance could be the difference-maker in securing another victory for Milan at San Siro.
Prediction
AC Milan 2-0 US Lecce
AC Milan’s recent upturn in form, coupled with their historical dominance over Lecce, suggests a comfortable victory for the home side. While Lecce have shown resilience at times, their inability to see out games could be their undoing against a Milan side brimming with attacking talent. Expect the Rossoneri to control proceedings and secure their third consecutive Serie A win.
