AC Milan will aim to secure their first win of the Serie A campaign against Venezia at the San Siro this weekend.
On Saturday, AC Milan will be keen to achieve their first victory of the 2024/25 Serie A season by defeating Venezia at San Siro. Milan have experienced a sluggish start to the season, accumulating a mere two points from their initial three matches. Meanwhile, recently promoted Venezia are also striving to secure their inaugural victory, having garnered just one point and one goal thus far.
Milan manager Paulo Fonseca is facing increasing pressure as he has not yet achieved his first competitive victory since assuming the position at San Siro. Conjectures have already started to circulate about his possible successor, with Thomas Tuchel and ex-Milan manager Massimiliano Allegri apparently being among the leading contenders if the club’s performance does not improve.
Milan’s campaign commenced with a disheartening draw against Torino, in which they had to gradually recover from a two-goal deficit to secure a point towards the end of the match. The Rossoneri subsequently suffered a surprising loss to recently-promoted Parma, and most recently, they allowed a lead to be surrendered against Lazio, only to be rescued by an exceptional counter-attacking goal from Rafael Leao.
The considerable worry lies in their defensive vulnerabilities, as Milan have allowed a minimum of two goals in each of their last five matches, including the latter part of Stefano Pioli’s tenure. Fast resolution of this matter is imperative for Fonseca, particularly considering the imminent and pivotal Champions League match against Liverpool next week. The inability to achieve a win against Venezia may result in Milan becoming winless in their first four Serie A matches for the first time in the current century.
Nevertheless, Milan face a favourable historical record at San Siro, as they have only suffered one loss out of their last 13 home matches against Venezia in Serie A. This one loss occurred in 1942.
Conversely, Venezia have encountered significant challenges since achieving promotion to the Serie B playoffs. Aside from their early departure from the Coppa Italia, the Arancioneroverdi have only managed to secure one point in their first three matches.
Although Venezia initially led through Magnus Andersen in their first encounter against Lazio, they ultimately suffered a 3-1 defeat. They have subsequently been unable to score in their following two matches, including a 1-0 loss against Torino in their most recent match.
Head coach Eusebio Di Francesco is confronted with a difficult task following a difficult summer transfer window. His team will be aiming to take advantage of Milan’s unstable defence in order to put a stop to their prolonged period of inability to score goals. The Hard Tackle explores the possible lineups and strategies for this game.
Team News & Tactics
AC Milan
AC Milan are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation for their clash against Venezia. Mike Maignan will start in goal, providing stability and leadership from the back. Davide Calabria is set to continue at right-back, with Fikayo Tomori and new signing Strahinja Pavlovic forming the central defensive pairing. Theo Hernandez, who offers both defensive solidity and attacking threat, will return to his usual position at left-back.
In midfield, Youssouf Fofana will partner with Tijjani Reijnders in the double-pivot, responsible for controlling the tempo of the game and breaking up opposition attacks. The attacking trio just behind the striker will consist of Christian Pulisic on the right wing, Ruben Loftus-Cheek operating centrally, and Rafael Leao on the left flank, providing creativity and flair.
Up front, Tammy Abraham is likely to lead the line, making his first start for AC Milan since arriving from AS Roma, as Alvaro Morata is eased back into action following his injury recovery.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Pavlovic, Hernandez; Fofana, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Abraham
Venezia FC
Venezia are expected to deploy a 3-4-2-1 formation for their trip to San Siro. Finnish goalkeeper Jesse Joronen will start between the posts, providing a reliable presence in goal. The three-man defence will likely feature Jorrit Hendrix Idzes on the right, Michael Svoboda in the centre, and Marin Sverko on the left side of the defensive line.
In the midfield, Antonio Candela will occupy the right wingback position, while Francesco Zampano will operate as the left wingback. The central midfield pairing will consist of Alfred Duncan and Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, who will be tasked with controlling the game from the middle of the park.
Gaetano Oristanio and Mikael Ellertsson will play just behind the striker, providing creativity and linking play between the midfield and attack. At the top of the formation, Joel Pohjanpalo will lead the line as the lone striker, aiming to open his scoring account for the season after a prolific campaign in Serie B.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Joronen; Idzes, Svoboda, Sverko; Candela, Duncan, Nicolussi Caviglia, Zampano; Oristanio, Ellertsson; Pohjanpalo
Key Stats
- AC Milan have won 10 of their last 13 Serie A games against Venezia, including a 2-0 awarded win in 1963. Venezia’s only victory during this period came on March 19, 2000, with a 1-0 result courtesy of a goal by Filippo Maniero.
- AC Milan have not lost in 12 of their 13 home games against Venezia in Serie A (W8 D4). Venezia’s only away win at San Siro against AC Milan was in November 1942 (2-1 at Arena Civica).
- AC Milan are winless in their last five league games (D3 L2), and if they fail to win on Saturday, they could register a longer streak without a win in Serie A for the first time since March and April 2018.
- AC Milan could fail to win any of their first four Serie A games of the season for only the second time in the last 65 years, having also done so in the 1997/98 season (D2 L2).
- AC Milan have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five league games, with a total of 12 goals conceded (2.4 on average per game). Only once before in Serie A history have Milan recorded a longer streak of conceding two or more goals in consecutive matches (eight between 1943 and 1946).
Player to Watch
Rafael Leao
Rafael Leao is AC Milan’s standout player and one to watch against Venezia. After being dramatically dropped for Milan’s clash against Lazio, he made an instant impact when he returned to the starting lineup, creating a stunning breakaway goal.
Since the start of the 2022/23 season, Leao is the only player in Serie A to have reached double figures for both goals and assists, with ten goals and ten assists. His ability to influence the game through his speed, creativity, and eye for goal makes him a vital part of Milan’s attack. Against a Venezia side that has struggled defensively, Leao could be the difference-maker, helping Milan break their winless streak.
Prediction
AC Milan 2-0 Venezia FC
Despite AC Milan’s defensive vulnerabilities, their attacking quality, particularly with players like Rafael Leao, should see them past Venezia in this encounter. AC Milan will be looking to take control of the game at San Siro, with Paulo Fonseca’s side seeking their first win of the campaign.
Venezia have struggled to find the net so far this season, and while they may have some moments, their lack of goals is likely to hurt them against a Milan side eager to bounce back. A solid attacking performance from Milan, combined with Venezia’s scoring struggles, should lead to a 2-0 victory for the home side.