Brazil vs Ecuador: Preview and Prediction

Brazil will be eager to get their FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers campaign back on track when they host Ecuador at Estadio Major Antonio Couto Pereira this week.

The international break has picked up steam, with national teams across the world displaying their chops. Brazil will return to action for the first time since bowing out of the 2024 Copa America in the quarter-finals when they host Ecuador at Estadio Major Antonio Couto Pereira in a FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifier.

Brazil would have hoped for a run to the Copa America 2024 final earlier in the summer as they looked to restore the winning feeling on the senior level. However, the Selecao bowed out of the continental even in the quarter-finals, going down to Uruguay. Meanwhile, the South American giants have struggled in the CONMEBOL version of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers, languishing in the sixth spot after six games, 11 points behind Argentina.

As for Ecuador, they have been solid in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers thus far, losing only once while winning three games and playing two draws. However, they have conceded a three-point penalty for using false birth documents for Byron Castillo in the previous World Cup qualification cycle, thus falling to fifth in the standings.

The two most recent matches featuring Brazil and Ecuador have ended in a 1-1 draw, with La Tri last beating the Selecao in 2004. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.

Team News & Tactics

Brazil

Dorival Junior has seen the injury bug strike his squad ahead of his side’s upcoming tie in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers. Brazil’s head coach has seen one player pull out from the group before Ecuador’s visit to Couto Pereira.

Eder Militao has left the Brazilian camp after sustaining a leg injury. In addition, Yan Couto was already out of the squad after picking up a knock this past weekend in the Bundesliga. Meanwhile, Dorival Junior has dropped a few players from the Copa America group, with Rafael, Gleison Bremer, Douglas Luiz, Andreas Pereira, Gabriel Martinelli, Evanilson, and Pepe missing out.

However, Raphinha is the most shocking omission from the squad, and his absence means the front three of Rodrygo, Endrick, and Vinicius Junior pick themselves. As for the midfield unit, there is no looking past Andre Trindade, Bruno Guimaraes, and Lucas Paqueta.

Meanwhile, Brazil will line up in a 4-3-3 formation against Ecuador, with Alisson Becker an automatic pick between the sticks. Finally, the backline will feature Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhaes, and Guilherme Arana.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Arana; Bruno Guimaraes, Andre, Paqueta; Rodrygo, Endrick, Vinicius Junior

Ecuador

Like his counterpart in the Brazilian dugout, Sebastian Beccacece has seen one player pull out from the squad due to a fitness issue. Cristian Ramirez has withdrawn from the group due to his injury.

Meanwhile, Beccacece made several changes to the squad he picked for the 2024 Copa America. Alexander Dominguez, Jose Hurtado, Layan Loor, Andres Micolta, Jose Cifuentes, Joao Ortiz, and Jordy Caicedo have missed out on the latest group.

Hernan Galindez should take his spot between the sticks, with Ecuador lining up in a 4-3-3 formation in front of him against Brazil. The backline should feature Angelo Preciado, Willian Pacho, Piero Hincapie, and Pervis Estupinan.

As for the midfield unit, there is no looking past Alan Franco, Moises Caicedo, and Carlos Gruezo. The trio will look to keep things tight in the middle of the park. Finally, Enner Valencia will lead the line for La Tri against Brazil, with Jeremy Sarmiento and the highly-rated Kendry Paez being the two wide attackers.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Galindez; Preciado, Pacho, Hincapie, Estupinan; Franco, Caicedo, Gruezo; Paez, Valencia, Sarmiento

Key Stats

  • Brazil and Ecuador have locked horns 35 times in all competitions thus far. The Selecao have a superior head-to-head record with 27 wins (D6 L2).
  • Brazil are unbeaten in their last 12 meetings against Ecuador, although the two most recent clashes have ended in 1-1 draws.
  • Brazil have kept clean sheets in five of their last seven meetings against Ecuador.
  • However, Brazil are winless in their four most recent games in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers, suffering three consecutive defeats and failing to score in two outings. On the other hand, Ecuador are unbeaten in their five most recent matches in the competition, keeping three successive clean sheets.
  • Heading into the latest matchday, Brazil had the second-worst defensive record in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers thus far, conceding seven times in six games.

Player to Watch

Rodrygo Goes

Embed from Getty Images

Rodrygo has not been a happy camper this week after his shock exclusion from the Ballon d’Or top 30. The 23-year-old voiced his displeasure on Instagram after the update, while many of his compatriots have expressed their support for him in the last 48 hours, including Neymar.

However, that is in the past, and the Brazil international must let his game do the talking for him. The time is now for Rodrygo to step up and deliver the goods for the Selecao as the South American giants look for inspiration amid their recent struggles.

Prediction

Brazil 2-1 Ecuador

Brazil might have struggled to make a mark in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifiers, with Ecuador producing impressive performances thus far. However, the hosts have a superb recent record against La Tri, the two most recent results notwithstanding.

Brazil’s defensive deficiencies mean Ecuador will put them under the pump. However, they should find their mojo in the final third, with Vinicius Junior stamping his authority this week. Ecuador will not go down without a fight, but Brazil should have enough quality to clinch a narrow 2-1 win.

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