Spain vs Georgia: Preview and Prediction

Spain will want to continue their winning run at the Euros and aim to reach the quarter-finals as they take on surprise package Georgia.

Spain finished their group as winners and as the only team at the Euros to have a 100% record as they get set to take on Georgia this weekend. They might have made wholesale changes to their side for the final group game against Albania, but an early goal from Ferran Torres proved enough as La Roja held on to the precious lead and went to collect three more points.

Meanwhile, Luis de la Fuente has plenty of pressure on his shoulders as he aims to take Spain to the big games, which come in the latter part of the Euros. La Roja have faltered in each of their last three big competitions, starting from the 2018 World Cup up until the Qatar showdown.

In all those events, they have bowed out on penalties, and de la Fuente will want this corrected. The best way to do that is by getting the goals early and possibly many to put the game beyond doubt, as Georgia are about to come in their way of success.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s second-minute goal against Portugal filled the Georgian fans at the stadium and back home with hope and, more importantly, a dream that this team can go through to the knockout rounds after all. Georges Mikautadze’s penalty in the second half made them realise that the dream is a big possibility, as the team put in a top-notch performance to keep the star men of Portugal at bay until the end.

While the goalscorers deserve plenty of credit, the actual hero was their goalkeeper, Giorgi Mamardashvili, who was on hand to make some assertive and decisive saves against Cristiano Ronaldo & Co. Now, he will hope for another such performance against Spain, as Georgia will want to continue dreaming of the impossible.

Spain will be a big test for Georgia, although they have shown with their performances that they are ready for the big test. While some may argue Portugal were a much-changed side, they still had some formidable stars in their ranks. Georgia must maintain their objective and must keep their momentum going from the previous game and into this one against La Roja.

Team News & Tactics

Spain

Luis de la Fuente will likely alter his lineup and bring out his strongest team to the pitch after resting many vital players for their last group game against Albania. More importantly, he will have key midfielder Rodri Hernandez back into the fold after he missed the previous game with a suspension.

Only Aymeric Laporte is expected to keep his place in the backline as the manager brings his preferred defenders back into the fold. This means that Dani Carvajal, Marc Cucurella, and Robin Le Normand are all set for returns, as well as goalkeeper Unai Simon.

Dani Olmo made a big statement early on against Albania after setting up the only goal for Torres, although the pair are set for a bench role once more. De la Fuente will continue to deploy young stars Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams alongside Alvaro Morata in the attack. Even in midfield, Pedri and Fabian Ruiz will return to their stations as Spain looks to go all out against Georgia.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Pedri, Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams

Georgia

Willy Sagnol may have found his right formation in the nick of time and might continue with it ahead of their essential and historic clash against Spain in the Round of 16. They do not have any missing players, meaning the manager can select the strongest team and make changes if needed, although there’s no reason to alter the side that beat Portugal.

This means Sagnol will persist with five at the back and play Georges Mikautadze and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia up front in a two-pronged attacking setup. The huge focus will be on how the Georgians plan on playing against Spain, as they do have a big powerhouse keeper in Giorgi Mamardashvili should they take the game to penalties.

It is a long shot even for Sagnol to plan and execute, as he will want his defence to be at its very best to contain the tricky attackers Spain has at its disposal. Either way, this will likely be an unchanged lineup from the last game, with the hope that they repeat their performances.

Probable Lineup (5-3-2): Mamardashvili; Kakabadze, Gvelesiani, Kashia, Dvali, Lochoshvili; Chakvetadze, Kiteishvili, Kochorashvili; Mikautadze, Kvaratskhelia

Key Stats

  • Spain have scored at least three goals in their last three matches against Georgia in all competitions.
  • Spain have won six of their last seven matches against Georgia in all competitions.
  • Spain are the only team with a 100% record at Euro 2024.
  • Georgia have conceded the most shots and shots on target at Euro 2024
  • Giorgi Mamardashvili has saved 16 of the last 17 shots on targets faced.

Player to Watch

Giorgi Mamardashvili

Embed from Getty Images

Georgia have some dreadful defensive numbers, as Willy Sagnol’s team has faced the most shots in the tournament and most attempts on target while also conceding the highest xGA so far of all teams at the Euros. The fact that they have not conceded a whole lot of goals is because of their goalkeeper, Mamardashvili. Naturally, looking at those numbers, it is clear that the Valencia man has faced the most shots.

In fact, he has saved 16 of his last 17 shots on target and will be in for a busy day ahead of the meeting with Spain. While Sagnol will hope his defensive players perform better, there is the undying hope that Mamardashvili will be the hero that keeps the team in the game. Should this game go to penalties, Georgia may then have a big enough chance to go through, all because they have the formidable Mamardashvili.

Prediction

Spain 2-1 Georgia

Spain will want a rampant start to proceedings when they face Georgia to eliminate any late threat from Sagnol’s side. Hence, the Spanish manager will wish to have clinical displays and avoid any complacency that could creep in if the game drags on in regulation time without his team scoring.

Georgia, on the other hand, have shown they can be clinical in the final third and a significant threat from counter-attacks. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze do give the team a chance to score goals, and they might be against Spain, although La Roja are the clear winner in our prediction. Still, this could be a tighter game than many would expect.

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