Spain vs Italy: Preview and Prediction

Spain take on Italy in a heavyweight encounter at UEFA Euro 2024, as both teams will look to continue their winning start to the competition.

Spain started with a stellar win over Croatia to open their account at Euro 2024 to set up an intriguing clash with Italy. But that game may have seen an unusual streak come to an end. For the first time since beating Germany at the Euro 2008 final, Spain had the lowest percentage of possession for the first time in 136 games, and yet, they managed to steer clear of their opponents with ease.

Is this a new way to play under Luis de la Fuente, and if it is, then Spain seemed quite effective in their application on the pitch. Alvaro Morata, captaining La Roja for the first time in a major tournament, will be mightily pleased with his goal, which made him the third all-time top scorer at European championships, after Cristiano Ronaldo and Michel Platini.

The big talking point from their win over Croatia was the performance of Lamine Yamal, who became the youngest ever player at a Euros and, by virtue of that, became the youngest ever assister after setting up the experienced Dani Carvajal for his first ever international goal. The Barcelona youngster will have plenty of focus on him ahead, as he will have to make another key contribution against Italy.

Italy also started with a win over Albania. However, they were handed an early scare when Nadim Bajrami scored after 23 seconds for the fastest-ever goal recorded at the European Championships. Yet, the Azzurri were able to bounce back from the adversary and score twice in five minutes in the first half to take control of the game.

Luciano Spalletti clearly took some risks with his selection and relied on some young stars like Riccardo Calafiori in his backline alongside Alessandro Bastoni. Nevertheless, it was a bit strange considering both the centre-backs were left-footed. But the former did put in a stellar showing in only his third international game.

Goals from Bastoni and Nicolo Barella proved enough for Italy to sail through the remainder of the game, but they did create a host of better chances. Federico Chiesa was clearly the livewire for Italy, and he will have all eyes on him when his team takes on Spain.

Italy are the reigning champions and is vying to become only the second team to win the Euros in back-to-back editions. For now, Spalletti will view progression from this group as winners as his priority, and for that, they must topple Spain and collect at least a point from their last game.

Team News & Tactics

Spain

The Spanish manager might assess his only injury concern in Aymeric Laporte, and this game could see the French-born centre-back return to the bench. Hence, the central partnership of Robin Le Normand and Nacho Hernandez might continue, as Luis de la Fuente is ideally expected to name an unchanged lineup after that three-goal performance against Croatia.

There was a scare with Rodri and skipper Morata. But the duo has returned to full training and will be expected to play against Italy. Pedri and Fabian Ruiz will be in the lineup alongside the Manchester City midfielder, while de la Fuente will persist with the likes of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams on the frontline.

However, the game state might see the manager think about making a few changes as Italy could offer a robust defensive setup. Hence, there is the off chance that de la Fuente might call upon the likes of Dani Olmo and Alejandro Grimaldo to feature in a changed setup of sorts.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Nacho, Cucurella; Pedri, Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams

Italy

Luciano Spalletti does not have any injury worries with his squad after the win over Albania, although that does not mean he will stick with the same setup. The former Napoli boss insisted that he’s not hung on particular lineups and has the players to factor changes should he feel the game state needs it.

For instance, Spain like to hold on to the ball and have pacey wingers to open up defences. Hence, he might consider Gianluca Mancini instead of Calafiori and Bryan Cristante ahead of Lorenzo Pellegrini. However, the aforementioned starters have yet to give the manager a reason for a drastic change, meaning Spalletti might name an unchanged lineup.

Calafiori and Bastoni are an odd pair of left-footed centre-backs, with both keen on foraying forward rather than sitting back with patience. However, the former was superb against Albania, and Spalletti might continue with him against Spain.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Frattesi, Jorginho, Barella; Chiesa, Scamacca, Pellegrini

Key Stats

  • Spain and Italy will face each other for the 11th time in a major tournament.
  • This will also be a record fifth consecutive Euros the two sides meet, starting from 2008.
  • Spain have won their last two games against Italy, but they have never managed three games against the Azzurri in a row.
  • Spain have prevailed in their last three meetings with reigning champions, and have reached in the Final in each of those editions.
  • Italy have lost only one of the last ten competitive games against Spain in a major tournament, which came in the Euro 2012 Final.

Player to Watch

Lamine Yamal

Embed from Getty Images

After watching Yamal’s performance against Croatia, Luciano Spalletti might have drawn up plans specifically designed to stop the teenage sensation. His pace and trickery are a few of the great characteristics the Barcelona youngster has. But more importantly, he is unpredictable and often has defenders on toast.

Hence, he will be the one to keep a close eye on the Italian defence, as he could have another productive game for La Roja. Should he happen to score in this tournament, Yamal could become the youngest-ever goalscorer in European Championship history, as he became the youngest assister in the opening game against Croatia.

Prediction

Spain 2-2 Italy

This game has the hallmarks of a draw from the looks of it, as both teams have the attacking power and defensive solidity to have a close encounter. Spain may still have a slightly better-attacking setup owing to their electric wingers. But Italy boast a solid yet adventurous defensive setup.

This is a game that could bring the best out of both teams, and the game does have the tendency to swing either way. However, this is a high-stakes encounter between the group favourites that could end in an entertaining draw.

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