Spain vs Croatia: Preview and Prediction

Spain and Croatia will aim to kick off their campaign at UEFA Euro 2024 with a bang when they clash at Olympiastadion Berlin on Saturday.

The UEFA Euro 2024 will kick-start on Friday with the match between Germany and Scotland. Saturday’s proceedings will get underway at the RheinEnergieStadion with the game between Hungary and Scotland. The action will continue in Berlin with Spain vs Croatia, the opening Group B tie.

Spain qualified for UEFA Euro 2024 by finishing atop Group A in the Qualifiers. While Scotland gave the heavyweights a run for their money, they had a handy four-point gap at the summit. La Roja prepared well for the European Championships, winning both games this month by scoring five goals in each match while conceding only once.

As for Croatia, they narrowly missed the top spot in Group D, with Turkiye pipping them to the summit. The latest generation of world beaters is reaching its last legs, with captain Luka Modric and vice-captain Domagoj Vida in the twilight of their careers. In addition, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Perisic, Marcelo Brozovic, Ante Budimir, and Andrej Kramaric are on the wrong side of 30. So, UEFA Euro 2024 will be their final chance to win a major international tournament.

The most recent Spain vs Croatia clash was the UEFA Nations League final last year, which ended in a goalless stalemate before La Roja prevailed 5-4 on penalties. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.

Team News & Tactics

Spain

There were some surprises in store when Luis de la Fuente announced his squad for UEFA Euro 2024. Aleix Garcia, Alejandro Balde, Pedro Porro, and Marcos Llorente are some of the notable absentees for Spain as they get set to take on Croatia in the Group B opener.

Unai Simon will take his usual berth between the sticks, with Spain lining up in a 4-3-3 formation in front of him against Croatia. The backline should feature Dani Carvajal, Robin Le Normand, Aymeric Laporte, and Alejandro Grimaldo.

As for the midfield unit, Mikel Merino might get the nod over Fabian Ruiz. The 27-year-old will pair up with Rodri and Pedri in the middle of the park, with the latter providing the creative impetus from the central areas.

Captain Alvaro Morata will lead the line for Spain against Croatia, with two young attackers playing the supporting role from the flanks. Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal will provide a burst of pace in the final third that can catch the Croatian defenders off-guard.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Grimaldo; Merino, Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Morata, Williams

Croatia

Unlike his counterpart in the Spanish dugout, Zlatko Dalic did not take many surprising calls with his final call-ups for UEFA Euro 2024. Borna Barisic, Duje Caleta-Car, and Kristijan Jakic are the only notable absentees from the Croatian squad.

Croatia will line up in a 4-3-3 formation against Spain, which will morph into a 4-2-3-1 under certain circumstances. Dominik Livakovic will take his usual spot between the sticks, with the backline featuring Josip Stanisic, Domagoj Vida, Josip Sutalo, and Josko Gvardiol.

As for the midfield unit, the experienced trifecta of Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, and Mateo Kovacic will link up in the middle of the park. While Kovacic and Brozovic will aim to keep things tight in the middle of the park, Modric will often take up advanced positions and provide the creative impetus in the final third.

Ante Budimir will likely spearhead the attack for Croatia against Spain, with Bruno Petkovic being an option on the bench. Andrej Kramaric and Lovro Majer will complete the numbers in the final third, with the duo often taking up central positions and allowing the full-backs to provide the width.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Livakovic; Stanisic, Vida, Sutalo, Gvardiol; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Majer, Budimir, Kramaric

Key Stats

  • Spain and Croatia will face each other at the European Championships for the fourth consecutive edition. La Roja won two of the previous three encounters (1-0, 2012 group stage; 5-3 a.e.t., 2020 round of 16), while Croatia won the other (2-1, 2016 group phase).
  • Excluding penalty shoot-outs, Spain have lost only two of their last 22 matches at the European Championships (W13 D7). That defeat came against Croatia and Italy in the 2016 edition. They have reached the knockout stages in six of their last seven appearances, the only exception coming in 2004.
  • Spain’s last 50 goals at the European Championships have all come from inside the box. Their most recent goal from distance was Raul’s strike against Slovenia in the group stage of the 2000 edition.
  • Only Cristiano Ronaldo (8) and Antoine Griezmann (7) have scored more goals than Alvaro Morata (6) across the last two UEFA European Championships.
  • Ivan Perisic has been directly involved in 18 goals at major international tournaments for Croatia since his debut at UEFA Euro 2012 (ten strikes, eight assists). During that time, Cristiano Ronaldo (21: 17 goals + 4 assists) was the only European player involved in more strikes at the FIFA World Cup and UEFA European Championships.

Player to Watch

Alvaro Morata

Embed from Getty Images

Morata has been in the news this week after suggesting he might move abroad in the summer transfer window due to poor reception from the Atletico Madrid fans. However, the experienced striker will not pay heed to the uncertainties surrounding his future at the club level.

The 31-year-old will lead Spain into a major international tournament for the first time since taking over the reins from Sergio Busquets. He has a solid record in the last two European Championships and will be the go-to man for Luis de la Fuente at UEFA Euro 2024. The Spain captain will hope to deliver the goods to kick-start the campaign on a high.

Prediction

Spain 2-1 Croatia

Spain might have blown Andorra and Northern Ireland away in the two friendlies ahead of UEFA Euro 2024. However, Croatia will not present as straightforward a challenge, considering the Blazers have a more robust defence.

Zlatko Dalic will set his team up to defend with numbers behind the ball and hit Spain on the counter. That will bring Lovro Majer and Josip Stanisic into the picture, with the duo creating a goal for Vatreni. However, that will only be a consolation goal, with Spanish clinching a narrow 2-1 win to go to the top of Group B.

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