Lazio vs AS Roma: Preview and Prediction

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A marquee showdown of Italian giants accentuates the Coppa Italia quarter-final as Lazio host AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico on Wednesday.

The stage is set for the latest installment of the Rome derby, with Lazio set to host AS Roma in a Coppa Italia quarter-final at the Olympic Stadium.

After a difficult start to the season, Maurizio Sarri’s side have picked up and been one of the most in-form sides in Serie A over the last three months. The Biancocelesti have taken 23 points from a possible 36, moving them to within just two points of Bologna in fifth, despite spending large periods of the season in the bottom half.

A strong finish to 2023 was key, as Lazio recorded back-to-back wins over Empoli and Frosinone before opening the New Year with a 2-1 victory away at Udinese. The Biancocelesti will be eager to keep the momentum going and get one over on their historic rivals here.

As for the visitors, while Roma might have extended their Coppa Italia adventure against Cremonese last week as first-choice strike duo Romelu Lukaku and Paulo Dybala both emerged from the bench to score late goals and save Roma’s skin, Jose Mourinho’s side have continued to struggle with their consistency.

Although they are in the latter stages of both the Coppa Italia and Europa League, they are still a long way off that elusive top-four spot in Serie A. Winless in four out of their last five league outings, Roma are eighth in the standings with 29 points. They are one point behind seventh-placed Lazio and Atalanta in sixth, and four adrift of Fiorentina, who close the top four.

They did earn a credible point against Atalanta last time out after forward Paulo Dybala rescued a home 1-1 draw for Roma as Argentina converted from the penalty spot in the first half, and a positive result against their city rivals could well boost their confidence.

Team News & Tactics

Lazio

Lazio will be without two crucial players of their own through injury here, as Ciro Immobile (hamstring) and Luis Alberto (groin) will both miss this encounter.

The visitors have been boosted by the return of Alessio Romagnoli, while right-back Manuel Lazzari was also available after suspension at the weekend. Neither of them was given a run-out over the weekend and could be drafted back into the starting XI here as Maurizio Sarri looks to freshen things up.

Daichi Kamada will also be at Sarri’s disposal, after the midfielder was a surprise omission from Japan’s Asian Cup squad. Despite netting only once in his last 14 games, summer recruit Taty Castellanos is set to continue in attack, while Felipe Anderson’s future is up in the air with rumours of a move away from the club, which means Sarri could opt for Mattia Zaccagni and Gustav Isaksen out wide.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Provedel; Lazzari, Romagnoli, Patric, Hysaj; Guendouzi, Rovella, Kamada; Isaksen, Castellanos, Zaccagni

AS Roma

Jose Mourinho was sent off in Roma’s 1-1 draw with Atalanta after two separate yellow cards for furiously protesting towards the referee in each half of the game. He will likely face another touchline suspension and could miss his team’s upcoming Serie A clash against AC Milan at the weekend. However, he will be barking out orders from the dugout in this critical Coppa Italia showdown.

Although Houssem Aouar and Evan Ndicka have both left for the Africa Cup of Nations, long-term absentee Marash Kumbulla could be back on the bench after an eight-month layoff. However, English pair Chris Smalling and Tammy Abraham remain sidelined alongside injury-prone Portuguese midfielder Renato Sanches.

The Portuguese boss could go with his strongest possible starting XI this midweek. Ndicka’s absence, along with Diego Llorente’s half-time substitution on Sunday, provided a chance for 18-year-old centre-back Dean Huijsen to make his debut after signing on loan from Juventus last week.

Mourinho could hand him a start here alongside Rasmus Kristensen and Gianluca Mancini in the three-man central defensive unit, with Svilar playing the sweeper-keeper role. Meanwhile, Nicola Zalewski will continue in his makeshift role on the left flank, while Zeki Celik will feature as the right wing-back, who will maraud his flank quite regularly.

In midfield, Lorenzo Pellegrini will be the key man, who will look to engineer the openings when pushing Lazio forward, while Bryan Cristante will play the anchor man role and protect the backline. Edoardo Bove will provide the X-Factor with his late runs in and around the box. Up front, Andre Belotti could miss out, with Paulo Dybala and Romelu Lukaku, who has eight Serie A strikes to his name this season, forming the deadly strike duo.

Probable Lineup (5-3-2): Svilar; Celik, Kristensen, Mancini, Huijsen, Zalewski; Bove, Cristante, Pellegrini; Dybala, Lukaku

Key Stats

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Paulo Dybala

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There is uncertainty over where Dybala’s long-term future lies as he has entered the final 18 months of his AS Roma contract. While several Premier League clubs circling around his tasty €12 million release clause valid until January 15, the Argentine attacker is hopeful of being offered a new deal as he is keen to remain at Stadio Olimpico despite being the subject of widespread interest.

Roma should do everything in their power to keep their star man. When he is fit, his numbers have been excellent since joining on a free transfer in 2022 after seven years at Juventus. He has been a big hit for Jose Mourinho with 48 direct goal contributions (24 goals, 14 assists) in his 55 appearances so far.

This year, the World Cup winner has netted six times and set up six more in 17 appearances, maintaining his strong output as he continues to be pivotal in their silverware hunt this season.

Prediction

Lazio 0-1 AS Roma

While Italy’s two classic rivals have a history of delivering cagey matches, Lazio will be seeking to build on their recent form against their fierce enemies. An inconsistent Roma, who have lost only one of their previous five games, might face another difficult test Sunday.

However, as the adage goes, form goes out the window in Derby games like this one, while the underdog mentality will suit Jose Mourinho to get under his players’ skins and draw a resilient performance away from home against all odds.

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