Empoli vs AC Milan: Preview and Prediction

AC Milan will be eager to try and keep up with the Serie A leaders when they take on Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani on Sunday.

The first half of the 2023/24 Serie A season ends on Sunday, which will bring us five games to drop the curtains on Matchday 19. The action on the day will begin at Stadio Carlo Castellani, where Empoli will host AC Milan.

Empoli would have hoped for a solid 2023/24 Serie A campaign after ending the 2022/23 season strongly. But they have struggled to make their mark this term, winning only three of their 18 matches thus far. The Blues have lost their last six games, with their most recent victory coming nearly two months ago, midway through November.

As for AC Milan, the giants of Italian football have failed to hit the heights of their exploits in the 2021/22 season. The Rossoneri barely finished in the top four last term, with Juventus’s points deduction helping. The story has not been much different in the 2023/24 campaign, as they trail the table-topping Inter Milan by nine points while dropping to the UEFA Europa League after finishing third in their Champions League group.

The corresponding fixture last season was an engrossing affair that saw three goals in injury time as AC Milan beat Empoli 3-1 in a thriller. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.

Team News & Tactics

Empoli

Aurelio Andreazzoli has a new roster issue hampering his preparations ahead of his side’s latest fixture. Against AC Milan on Sunday, the Empoli manager will be bereft of the services of four first-team players.

Liberato Cacace is the latest absentee, with the 23-year-old serving a suspension on Sunday. Giuseppe Pezzella (back), Simone Bastoni (hamstring), and Gabriele Guarino (muscle injury) remain in the treatment room. In addition, Bartosz Bereszynski is recovering from a thigh issue that might keep him on the sidelines.

Elia Caprile will take his spot between the sticks, with Empoli lining up in a 4-3-1-2 formation in front of him against AC Milan on Sunday. Ardian Ismajli should pair up with Sebastian Walukiewicz at the heart of the defence, with Tyronne Ebuehi and Sebastiano Luperto being the two full-backs.

As for the midfield unit, Alberto Grassi, Youssef Maleh, and Jacopo Fazzini will form the trifecta in the middle of the park. The trio will look to keep things tight in front of the defensive unit and initiate quick transitions. Tommaso Baldanzi will reprise the no. 10 role, looking to pull the strings behind the strikers. Finally, Nicolo Cambiaghi and Francesco Caputo should be the two strikers.

Probable Lineup (4-3-1-2): Caprile; Ebuehi, Ismajli, Walukiewicz, Luperto; Fazzini, Grassi, Maleh; Baldanzi; Cambiaghi, Caputo

AC Milan

Like his counterpart in the Empoli dugout, Stefano Pioli has a plethora of concerns to deal with ahead of the trip to San Siro. The AC Milan manager will be without eight first-team players on Sunday.

Ismael Bennacer and Samuel Chukwueze are the latest absentees, with the duo joining their national sides for their Africa Cup of Nations campaigns. Fikayo Tomori (thigh), Malick Thiaw (hamstring), and Pierre Kalulu (thigh) are the most notable absentees, with their absence creating a crisis in the defensive unit.

But Matteo Gabbia has provided some respite after returning from his loan spell at Villarreal. Meanwhile, Tomori, Thiaw, and Kalulu accompany Marco Sportiello (calf), Tommaso Pobega (hamstring), and Noah Okafor (hamstring) on the sidelines.

AC Milan will line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation against Empoli on Sunday, with Mike Maignan taking his place in the goal. The returning Gabbia will form the central defensive partnership alongside Simon Kjaer. Davide Calabria and Theo Hernandez will be the two full-backs, with Gabbia’s return allowing the latter to play in his preferred position.

As for the midfield unit, Yacine Adli and Tijjani Reijnders will pair up in the double pivot. The duo will look to shore up things in the middle of the park while initiating quick transitions. Ruben Loftus-Cheek will reprise the no. 10 role, with Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao being the two wide attackers. Finally, Olivier Giroud will spearhead the AC Milan attack against Empoli.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Gabbia, Hernandez; Adli, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Giroud

Key Stats

  • Nine of the 30 meetings between Empoli and AC Milan have ended in a draw (three Empoli wins, 18 Milan wins). The Blues have only produced a stalemate against two other Serie A teams: Udinese (10) and Torino (11).
  • AC Milan have scored the most away goals against Empoli in Serie A (29 goals) and played the most matches at Stadio Carlo Castellani without losing (W15 W8 D7).
  • Empoli have the worst home record in Serie A this season, racking up the fewest points (5) and scoring the fewest goals (5).
  • Empoli have not found the back of the net in their last three games, failing to win their most recent six matches.
  • Only Almeria (24) lost more matches in 2023 than Empoli (20) among teams from the top-five European leagues.

Player to Watch

Tijjani Reijnders

Embed from Getty Images

AC Milan’s defensive deficiencies have been the club’s undoing thus far in the 2023/24 season. Injuries to critical members of the backline have not helped their cause either, with Fikayo Tomori the latest player in the treatment room. So, the onus is on the midfielders to provide better cover to the defenders.

That brings Tijjani Reijnders into the picture, with the Dutchman needing to elevate his performance levels. If he rises to the occasion, the defenders will be under less pressure. So, Stefano Pioli will hope Reijnders makes his mark and helps AC Milan embark on an unbeaten run. That can, in turn, make the Rossoneri the dark horse of the Serie A title race.

Prediction

Empoli 1-2 AC Milan

With AC Milan missing star centre-backs, Empoli might feel they have an opportunity to end the recent scoring drought. In addition, the Blues will fancy their chances of getting something out of the game and improving their dreadful home record.

While the hosts will take the game to Stefano Pioli’s men, they will not have the quality to beat them. Furthermore, AC Milan will add to the solid record at Empoli on Sunday, with Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic delivering the goods in the final third. The Hard Tackle predicts a hard-fought 2-1 win for the Rossoneri.

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