A win will be worth its weight in gold when Nottingham Forest and Luton Town lock horns at City Ground on Saturday.
The dreaded international break is behind us, and the Premier League will return this weekend with Gameweek 9 of the 2023/24 season. The latest round of fixtures will begin with the Merseyside Derby at Anfield. The action will then continue at City Ground, where Nottingham Forest will host Luton Town.
Nottingham Forest would have hoped for a better start to the 2023/24 season than being 13th on the table. But after winning two of the first four games of the campaign, Steve Cooper’s men failed to emerge victorious from any of their four outings in the second phase of 2023/24. While the Tricky Trees lost just once, three draws have sent them slipping in the standings.
On the other hand, Luton Town had a baptism by fire to start the 2023/24 season, the club’s first in the Premier League era. The Hatters lost their first two games by three-goal margins and had to wait until the campaign resumed after September’s international break to clinch their first point of the term.
Rob Edwards and his charges clinched their first win towards the end of last month before enduring back-to-back odd-goal defeats. Such a start has left Luton Town perilously close to the relegation zone, although they will be happy not to be in the bottom three after their first eight outings.
Luton Town won the most recent clash featuring them and Nottingham Forest, clinching a 1-0 win at Kenilworth Road in April 2022 in the EFL Championship. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.
Team News & Tactics
Nottingham Forest
Focus on #NFOLUT 🔜 pic.twitter.com/VeJ1Ztz2Lw
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) October 20, 2023
Steve Cooper has greeted a positive update on the team news front ahead of his side’s latest fixture. Against Luton Town on Saturday, the Nottingham Forest manager will be bereft of the services of seven first-team players.
The good news is Moussa Niakhate is available after serving a suspension. But Gonzalo Montiel is the latest absentee after sustaining a calf injury while on international duty with Argentina. The World Cup winner has joined Felipe (knee), Serge Aurier (groin), Ola Aina (knock), Nuno Tavares (match fitness), Danilo (thigh), and Taiwo Awoniyi (groin) on the sidelines.
Cooper suggested in his pre-match press conference that Nottingham Forest’s star striker is recovering from his issue. But the game against Luton Town has come too soon for the 26-year-old. In his absence, Chris Wood should spearhead the Nottingham Forest attack against Luton.
Matt Turner will take his spot between the sticks, with the home team lining up in a 4-3-2-1 formation in front of him. The returning Niakhate will not start, with Willy Boly and Murillo forming the central defensive pairing. The duo will join Neco Williams and Harry Toffolo in the backline.
Williams and Toffolo will provide width in the final third, with the rest of the team remaining compact. As for the midfield unit, Ibrahim Sangare will hold the fort, looking to keep things tight in the middle of the park alongside Orel Mangala and Nicolas Dominguez. Finally, Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi will complete the numbers in the attack.
Probable Lineup (4-3-2-1): Turner; Williams, Boly, Murillo, Toffolo; Sangare, Mangala, Dominguez; Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood
Luton Town
Like his counterpart in the Nottingham Forest dugout, Rob Edwards has a plethora of fitness issues hampering his preparations ahead of the trip to City Ground. The Luton Town manager should be without five first-team players on Saturday.
The defensive and midfield units are the worst-affected departments, with Mads Andersen (thigh), Amari’i Bell (hamstring), Dan Potts (ankle), Jordan Clark (ankle), and Albert Sambi Lokonga (thigh) on the sidelines. But Gabriel Osho should return after recovering sufficiently from a knee issue.
All smiles at The Brache. 😁 pic.twitter.com/LaZhnTztcp
— Luton Town FC (@LutonTown) October 20, 2023
However, Osho will unlikely start, with Reece Burke, Tom Lockyer, and Teden Mengi forming the central defensive unit. The trio will sit in front of Thomas Kaminski, hoping to keep the home side’s attack quiet this weekend.
Issa Kabore and Alfie Doughty should be the two wing-backs, with the duo looking to create the chances from the flanks. They will also flank the three midfielders, with Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu, Marvelous Nakamba, and Ross Barkley looking to remain compact to cut off the passing lanes.
Finally, Elijah Adebayo and star striker Carlton Morris will be Luton’s best hope to take something from the game. The two strikers will likely feed off scraps on Saturday but have the quality to punish the Nottingham Forest defenders if they make any mistakes.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Kaminski; Burke, Lockyer, Mengi; Kabore, Mpanzu, Nakamba, Barkley, Doughty; Adebayo, Morris
Key Stats
- Luton Town have won one of their last 14 games away to Nottingham Forest in all competitions (D6 L7). The Hatters’ solitary top-flight victory away to Forest came in March 1983, when Ricky Hill scored the only goal.
- Nottingham Forest have only lost two of their last 18 Premier League home matches and none of their most recent six (W4 D2). Steve Cooper’s men are vying to record back-to-back clean sheets in the league for the first time since beating Southampton and Leicester City in January.
- Luton Town have equalled their worst start to a league season (W1 D1 L6), set in Division Three South in 1927/28. They beat Crystal Palace 6-1 in their ninth league game of that campaign.
- Luton Town have hit a league-high 21% of their passes long in 2023/24 and averaged a league-low 36.1% possession.
- Alfie Doughty has created 14 chances from set-pieces in the current Premier League campaign, more than any other player.
Player to Watch
Morgan Gibbs-White
Taiwo Awoniyi’s absence leaves a gaping hole in the Nottingham Forest attack. The 26-year-old is by far the best player at City Ground, with his incredible start to the season earning his team crucial points. So, Steve Cooper needs inspiration from another source in the final third this weekend.
The Englishman has stepped up his performance levels in the early days of the 2023/24 season. Gibbs-White has managed a team-high six shots in the box in the last four games. In addition, he has more attempts (nine) and chances created (seven) than any other Nottingham Forest teammate. So, the 23-year-old will be the go-to man for Cooper this weekend.
Prediction
Nottingham Forest 1-0 Luton Town
Nottingham Forest and Luton Town have not set the stage alight thus far in the 2023/24 season. But the hosts have an impeccable home record, losing only two of their last 18 top-flight matches at City Ground. So, the odds are stacking up against the away side. But Taiwo Awoniyi’s absence means Steve Cooper’s team will not run away with the game.
Set-pieces can be the way to breach the Nottingham Forest defence, considering Alfie Doughty’s output in those situations. But the Tricky Trees tend to defend those scenarios well, filling the box with imposing figures. In the end, the match will hinge on small margins, with the home side having enough quality to eke out a narrow 1-0 win.
