SSC Napoli vs AC Milan Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

A spot in the semi-finals will be on offer in the all-Italian UEFA Champions League quarter-final clash between Napoli and AC Milan.

Serie A league leaders SSC Napoli will have it all to do when they welcome domestic rivals AC Milan to the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium for their UEFA Champions League quarter-final second-leg clash on Tuesday night.

The Rossoneri might be struggling to defend their Scudetto crown this season but managed to pull off a 1-0 win in the first leg. They will now travel to a difficult stadium in an effort to secure a first semi-final spot in the competition since 2007, when they went on to win the trophy.

Stefano Pioli’s side have in fact already won in Naples this season, trouncing Napoli 4-0 earlier in the campaign. They will now need to channel a similar performance to avoid another European heartbreak.

The Partenopei are currently in uncharted waters and are already enjoying their most successful run in Europe’s top competition. Their form has dropped off recently, but Luciano Spalletti’s men remain a formidable side who have almost wrapped up the Serie A title.

They can afford to put all their eggs in one basket for the week and play their best side on the night. The home support will be electric, providing them with enough impetus to take the game to the visitors. In many ways, it is a clash between Italian and European football royalty against a side that has for long been akin to a sleeping giant.

With Inter Milan likely to face the winner in the semi-finals, Serie A can more or less be assured of a participant in the summit clash in Istanbul. The Hard Tackle looks at how both sides could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.

Team News & Tactics

SSC Napoli

Napoli welcomed back star striker Victor Osimhen, who made his return from injury against Hellas Verona at the weekend as a substitute. The Nigerian striker has been a tour de force at the head of the Napoli attack. So his return could not have been better timed.

Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are the two pillars of the Gli Azzurri attack and having them back together should make life harder for the visitors. However, they will be without defensive colossus Kim Min-jae, who is suspended after being booked for dissent in the first leg.

Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa will also be missing, while Giovannni Simeone has picked up a thigh injury, forcing Spalletti to make changes. Napoli has an otherwise fully fit squad to choose from.

The home side are likely to retain their trademark 4-3-3 formation, with Alex Meret starting in goal. He will be protected by the back four of Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Juan Jesus and Mario Rui.

Tottenham loanee Tanguy Ndombele could be brought into the lineup for the missing Anguissa alongside Stanislav Lobotka and Piotr Zielinski. The Polish midfielder in particular will be expected to get forward when possible as Napoli seek to overturn a one-goal deficit.

Osimhen is likely to be restored to the starting lineup at the head of the attack. He should be ably supported by Kvaratskhelia and Hirving Lozano. The trio have proven themselves to be a difficult bunch to nail down this season and will be keen to put together another fast start.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Jesus, Rui; Ndombele, Lobotka, Zielinski; Lozano, Osimhen, Kvaratskhelia

AC Milan

The defending Italian champions clearly have an eye on the clash, given that Stefano Pioli rang in the changes at the weekend against Bologna. The big guns will be expected to return on Tuesday, fresh after the rest and raring to go.

The lone major absentee should be Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who is ineligible to feature. Milan have an otherwise fully fit squad to choose from and will be raring to go. Pioli’s men showed fight and heart in the first leg, something they have lacked on several occasions in the league. With a lead to protect, there is every reason to believe that the Rossoneri will be raring to go.

A 4-2-3-1 formation appears to be the go-to setup, with just Mike Maignan in goal keeping his spot from the weekend. The Frenchman should be protected by the back four of Davide Calabria, Simon Kjaer, Fikayo Tomori and Theo Hernandez.

Rade Krunic and Sandro Tonali should form the double pivot and will be tasked with shackling Napoli’s forward runs from midfield. Doing so will help them isolate Osimen from service and make life a tad easier for the visiting defence.

Ismael Bennacer was the hero in the first leg and should retain his spot in the XI as the number 10. He will be ably supported by Brahim Diaz and the excellent Rafael Leao who can be a real handful on his day.

Star striker Olivier Giroud should lead the line and will be keen to take advantage of Kim Min-jae’s absence. The South Korean’s suspension should give Milan a slight edge in a direct confrontation. And the former Chelsea man is experienced enough to make life difficult for Jesus.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez; Krunic, Tonali; Diaz, Bennacer, Leao; Giroud

Key Stats

• Winning the tie will see Napoli qualify for the semi-finals of the European Cup for the first time in their history. The Partenopei have lost twice to AC Milan across all competitions this season. They have not lost to the same side thrice over the course of a season since Lazio in 1994/95.
• The last time AC Milan won two away games against another Italian side in the same season was against Sampdoria in 2015/16.
• AC Milan have been knocked out of the European Cup just twice in a two-legged fixture after winning the first leg.
• The last time Napoli lost a home game in the UEFA Champions League was in 2017 vs Manchester City. They are currently on a 12-game unbeaten run in the competition at home.
• Napoli have scored at least three goals in their four games at home in the competition this season, winning all.
• AC Milan have now kept five straight clean sheets in the competition. The last time they went on a similar or better run, they made the 2005 final, also played in Istanbul.

Player to Watch

Victor Osimhen

The Nigerian striker has been a tour-de-force for Napoli upfront and their focal point in attack all season. Linked with several high-profile clubs for the summer, the 23-year-old’s return from injury will hand the home side a massive boost in the attack.

They struggled to break through the Hellas Verona defence on the weekend and also lacked the cutting edge against Milan in the opening leg. With Osimhen back, Kvaratskhelia can also relax and wreak havoc on the flank rather than carry the goalscorers’ burden.

Napoli have had no problem crafting opportunities going forward. But the lack of a finisher has hit them hard in recent weeks. The smallest of advantages can go a long way in changing a side’s fortunes in knockout competitions. And Osimhen’s return will give the home side confidence that the tie can be turned around.

Prediction

SC Napoli 2-1 (AC Milan to draw level (2-2) in extra time to win the tie (3-2) on aggregate)

With Napoli forced to chase the game, they could be left open defensively. This is especially a threat given the absence of Kim Min-jae. AC Milan might not be getting the results they want but have shown some inspired performances of late.

With the majority of the outfield rested at the weekend, they will be fresher and can see out the game should it go into extra time. Milan also have a rather good recent record away to Napoli, more or less nullifying the 12th man in the stands. With better options off the bench, the visitors hold the advantage going into the clash.