AC Milan vs Napoli Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

AC Milan and Napoli square off in a blockbuster quarter-final clash on Wednesday, pitting two of Italy’s three remaining Champions League clubs against each other.

Stadio San Siro will serve as the setting for the second installment of a mouth-watering trio of games between AC Milan and Napoli this month, as the two Serie A giants are set to lock horns in the first leg of their quarterfinal tie.

Napoli are still the feel-good story of the ongoing season and look to continue what has been a remarkable campaign to date. With only nine league matches remaining and a 16-point advantage at the top, a first Serie A title since 1990 looks almost certain. And they are in the Last Eight of Europe’s elite competition for the first time in their history.

They are living a dream, and nobody wants to wake them up. However, reigning Scudetto champions AC Milan gave them somewhat of a rude awakening, strolling to a remarkable 4-0 league victory at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to set themselves up nicely for this Champions League showdown.

It looked like Stefano Pioli’s side have finally turned a corner following a sub-par four-match winless run in all competitions (D2 L2). But Empoli dashed their revival hopes last Friday. Despite having 70% possession and attempting 23 shots, Milan were held to a scoreless home draw against the bottom-half strugglers.

In addition to failing to consolidate their flailing pursuit of a third straight top-four finish in Serie A, that disappointment may have knocked their confidence further in what has been an underwhelming season by all means unless they defy the odds massively in the Champions League. But there is no time to mull over as Napoli come to town.

Luciano Spalletti’s men, meanwhile, bounced back from the aforementioned fiasco in Naples with a hard-fought 2-1 victory at bottom-half Lecce last Friday. A comfy cushion atop Serie A gives Napoli plenty of wriggle room in domestic matters, which could benefit their stellar Champions League run.

The Partenopei are aiming to go the distance and claim European success, which has eluded them since their historic UEFA Cup win in 1988/89. The Hard Tackle looks at how both teams could line up on the night and what to expect.

Team News & Tactics

AC Milan

As well as veteran Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who likely picked up a career-ending injury earlier this month, AC Milan will be without the services of Pierre Kalulu, with the Frenchman expected to miss out with a calf problem.

Milan boss Stefano Pioli made a raft of changes in the goalless draw with Empoli over the weekend and can be expected to bring their first-team stars back into the side, with the likes of Rafael Leao, Olivier Giroud, and Brahim Diaz all set to return.

Pioli understands the importance of gaining a crucial first-leg lead. However, Milan must demonstrate the same defensive tenacity that was evident in their eye-catching triumph in Naples earlier this month. The reigning Serie A champions have registered four consecutive clean sheets in the Champions League and will be looking to make it five in a row now that they also have Mike Maignan in fine form in-between the sticks.

Kalulu’s absence leaves veteran defender Simon Kjaer to compete with prodigious Malick Thiaw for the right-sided defensive berth to partner Fikayo Tomori at the heart of the backline. Captain Davide Calabria did a fine job limiting Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s output on the right flank last time out. So he will once again be asked to do the same job, which won’t be an easy task.

Rade Krunic was one of the key players for Milan in the 4-0 win against Napoli last weekend, playing in a more defensive role than usual alongside Italian playmaker Sandro Tonali, with Ismael Bennacer pushed into an advanced attacking midfield role.

When he is at it, Milan’s MVP Leao is a real livewire, and he has been doing just that recently. He has 16 direct goal involvements in Serie A so far. But he has not been as impressive in the Champions League, since he only has one goal and two assists. However, he can make up for it all with a match-winning, electrifying performance against Napoli.

In addition to him, Giroud will also be a very important player for Milan. He knows a thing or two about scoring vital goals. Meanwhile, Brahim Diaz will look to put his creativity to good use in order to supply France’s all-time international top-scorer.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Kjaer, Hernandez; Tonali, Krunic; Bennacer, Diaz, Leao; Giroud

Napoli

Victor Osimhen is a major doubt for Napoli, having missed their last two matches with an adductor injury suffered while on international duty with Nigeria. He is poised to miss the trip to Milan and is in a race against time to return for next week’s return leg.

What’s more, Giovanni Simeone, his potential replacement, was forced off just 15 minutes after being substituted on last time out against Lecce. So Giacomo Raspadori, who has just returned from an injury of his own, is set to lead the line.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has shown confidence to take shots from outside or inside the box, score from headers, take defenders on a one-on-one with his dynamic pace, and more, so expect him to take up more central striker positions, with Raspadori also versatile enough to shift across to the left-flank if needed. Hirving Lozano will look to wreak havoc from the right flank.

Spalletti is likely to deploy his side in a 4-3-3 formation. Alex Meret will start in goal behind a back four of Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Kim Min-jae, Amir Rrahmani, and Mario Rui.

The midfield will be anchored by Stanislav Lobotka, with support from Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa and Piotr Zielinski in the middle of the park, with the latter of the two also looking to pull the strings in attack when pushing forward in the No. 10 role.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Kim, Rrahmani, Rui; Zambo Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski; Lozano, Raspadori, Kvaratskhelia

Key Stats

• AC Milan have reached the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League for the first time since the 2011/12 season.
• The Rossoneri have lost only one of nine previous all-Italian match-ups in a European competition.
• AC Milan have won just one of their last six outings across all competitions, but that sole win came just against Napoli.
• AC Milan have only won eight of their previous 24 home clashes against the Partenopei.
• Napoli are Champions League’s highest goal scorers this term, and will be looking to add to their 25-goal tally, with only Bayern Munich (8) winning more games than Luciano Spalletti’s side (7) in the competition this term.

Player to Watch

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Embed from Getty Images

There will be plenty of talent on display in this game on both sides. And when narrowing it down to one player, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is the man who could shine brightest and turn the game in Napoli’s favour.

The fantastic season by the Partenopei has been so great because of the contributions of the entire team, including a few standouts that wowed the most.

However, the jewel in the crown is Kvaratskhelia, or, as he is popularly known by Napoli fans, Kvaradona. The rare gem from Georgia has already established himself as one of the top talents in Europe, as he has been absolutely amazing since arriving in Naples last summer.

The silky winger has registered 12 goals and added ten assists in Napoli’s bid for the title in Serie A so far. In addition, he also contributed with two goals and four assists in seven Champions League matches for the team as well.

Prediction

AC Milan 1-1 Napoli

Napoli will enter the tie as favourites. But their recent heavy defeat at the hands of Milan in the dress rehearsal will have taken some wind out of their sails and will affect Luciano Spalletti’s troops psychologically on Wednesday. In addition, the absence of Osimhen will drastically handicap their chances of gaining the tie into the second leg.

As for Milan, they showcased they can best Napoli when at their best. But we still think Napoli are still likely to have enough over the 180 minutes, if not longer, while Milan may well be able to keep the tie finely balanced heading into the next week’s return leg.