Benfica vs Inter Milan Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

Champions League quarter-final action gets underway at Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica as high-flying Benfica take on out-of-sorts Inter on Tuesday night.

Inter Milan and Benfica will lock horns in the quarter-finals of the Champions League, hoping to rebound from their recent domestic setbacks.

Benfica will be hoping the loss against FC Porto was a minor blip in an otherwise successful season as they stay on track to make it past the quarter-finals for the first time since losing the final to AC Milan in 1990. The defeat to Porto came as a surprise, as Benfica had been dominating domestically and in Europe. It was only their second defeat, following a loss in Braga 17 matches earlier.

Benfica have been one of the surprise packages of the Champions League this season after starting in the third qualifying round. They went on an unbeaten run to finish top in a difficult group that included powerhouses like Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus before making light work of Belgian champions Club Brugge in the Round of 16.

They have been excellent value for money throughout the campaign as well. Only Napoli have scored more than Benfica’s 23 goals. On the other hand, no quarter-finalist has recorded fewer goals than the 11 netted by Inter, who got past Porto in the :ast 16.

Things have not been going all that well for Inter in Serie A of late. If Inter are not in full-fledged crisis mode heading into tomorrow’s encounter at the Estadio da Luz, they are very close, with Simone Inzaghi coming under intense criticism from his own fans.

Recent dropped points in Serie A have become a massive issue, as the only goal that the team have scored from open play in more than 500 minutes of action, Robin Gosens’s early opener against Salernitana on Friday, was quickly followed by numerous missed opportunities and the concession of a late equaliser.

The fact that the team has been so wasteful with their chances has certainly been a cause for concern. If Inter continue to finish chances at the same rate as they have in previous games against Benfica, there is little chance that they will advance to the Champions League semi-finals.

Despite the fact that all of the missed opportunities look like a mental block at times, the overall quality of the performances has remained okay. This game could be considered a welcome distraction, and Inzaghi will be hoping all the missed xG (Expected goal) will kick in against the Eagles here.

Team News & Tactics

Benfica

Benfica boss Roger Schmidt is juggling a fair few injuries as he prepares his team for the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final. The Portuguese giants will be without Goncalo Guedes, Julian Draxler, and Mihailo Ristic for Tuesday’s showdown.

Meanwhile, Nicolas Otamendi misses out due to a suspension. Alexander Bah, who was pulled during the first half of last week’s defeat to FC Porto, is also at risk of missing out.

Odysseas Vlachodimos remains the automatic starter between the sticks, with Benfica lining up in Schmidt’s preferred 4-2-3-1 system. In Otamendi’s absence, Lucas Verissimo should line up as the left-sided defender alongside the highly-rated Antonio Silva. The centre-backs will be flanked by Gilberto and Alejandro Grimaldo, the latter of whom is renowned for his set-piece ability and superb passing.

Winter arrival Fredrik Aursnes has made eight UCL outings for Benfica, mostly on the left wing, starting both legs in the Last 16. But he has been fairly quiet with zero goal involvements. Now, this may raise a few eyebrows, given that Brazilian trickster David Neres is pushing for that spot in the XI.

However, the former Feyenoord midfielder just offers more defensive assurance from that position, regularly tucking back to make a midfield three and allowing one of the double-pivot midfielders, Chiquinho or Florentino Luis, to progress with the ball forward.

This just leaves the attack; Rafa Silva will be the creator-in-chief for the hosts. The 29-year-old has bundles of experience on the big stage, having featured 25 times for Portugal, and will be expected to deliver the goods here.

Meanwhile, Joao Mario has been in sensational form on both the domestic circuit and in Europe. As for Goncalo Ramos, a lot of European bigwigs are queuing up to sign the Portuguese striker and will be keen to see how he fares here.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Vlachodimos; Gilberto, Verissimo, Antonio Silva, Grimaldo; Luis, Chiquinho; Aursnes, Rafa Silva, Mario; Ramos

Inter Milan

According to the reports in the Italian media, Inter will be without the services of midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu (thigh) and defender Milan Skriniar (lower back) against Benfica due to respective injury concerns. While the duo is steadily recovering, there is no chance of either being ready to start the match at the Estadio da Luz.

Otherwise, Inzaghi will have a full deck of cards at his disposal to play from and try to outwit his counterpart in the Benfica dugout. While the former Lazio head coach has chopped and changed quite a lot in recent times, one constant is his insistence on deploying his side in the 3-5-2 formation, with Andre Onana a certain mainstay in between the sticks.

In defence, Skriniar’s absence means that Matteo Darmian will start on the right of the back three, with Alessandro Bastoni and Francesco Acerbi the other two defenders of an all-Italian backline ahead of Onana’s goal.

Meanwhile, Stefan de Vrij is expected to start on the bench, which has become a recurring theme for the 31-year-old this season. Denzel Dumfries will start at right wingback, whereas Federico Dimarco will bomb forward on the opposite flank. In midfield, Marcelo Brozovic will play the sitting role in the trio with Calhanoglu missing, and Nicolo Barella and Henrikh Mkhitaryan are set to start on either side of the Croatian international.

Despite the fact that Kristjan Asllani performed well on his debut against Salernitana on Friday, Inzaghi will stick with experience in the middle of the park. Finally, in attack, there is no doubt that Martinez will start despite his recent bad form and goal drought. Martinez is an essential and trusted player in Inzaghi’s big matches.

As for Martinez’s strike partner, Inzaghi will have a decision to make, as both Edin Dzeko and Romelu Lukaku have started some recent matches and have not exactly put on commanding displays to nail down the starting spot. We think the Bosnian target man is ahead of Romelu Lukaku to lead the line alongside Lautaro Martinez due to his defensive work rate.

Accordingly, the Gazzetta reports that Inzaghi has told his squad that they have to remain confident when chances present themselves and back themselves to keep creating good chances.

Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Onana; Darmian, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Brozovic, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Dzeko, Martinez

Key Stats

• Inter Milan are winless in five games, having lost three and drawn two in that period.
• Inter Milan have a strong record against Benfica, having won three of the four meetings between the two clubs, with the meeting ending in a stalemate.
• Benfica, European champions in 1961 and 1962, are playing in the quarter-finals for the second consecutive season after being eliminated by eventual runner-up Liverpool last year.
• Benfica are looking to record five victories in a row in the European Cup for the first time since their 1989/90 campaign.
• Prior to the surprise loss to Porto, Benfica had won 13 of the last 15 matches in all competitions since their last defeat against Braga. They have lost only two competitive games all season.

Player to Watch

Goncalo Ramos

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Regarded as one of the best young strikers in European football, the 21-year-old has been exceptional for Benfica after the departure of Darwin Nunez last summer. He has been in stunning form for Benfica this season, amassing 25 goals and 10 assists from 37 games.

Ramos’s reputation has risen quickly since his poaching exploits for Portugal at the World Cup, scoring a stellar hat-trick alongside an assist in the 6-1 thrashing of Switzerland in the Round of 16. Aside from his goalscoring instincts, he has also caught the eye with his mobility, hold-up play, and eagerness to press defenders in the final third.

He put on a great display in the previous round, scoring two and assisting another as Benfica dispatched Club Brugge 5-1. While it has been a collective team effort, he has been the driving force behind the Eagles’ stunning Champions League run so far, starting in the qualifiers. Expect the in-demand striker to shine on yet another big stage here.

Prediction

Benfica 1-0 Inter Milan

Inter will have to crank it up to get anything out of this opening leg, as there are only a few tougher places to go in Europe than Estadio da Luz. Benfica are flying high. And despite losing to FC Porto in the league just before heading into this encounter, they should have more than enough to take a narrow advantage into the second leg of the quarter-final tie.

As for Inter, they have massively underperformed in Serie A and will be looking to make up for it with a remarkable European run. Simone Inzaghi would be pleased if they returned to San Siro only a goal behind, as it gives them an excellent chance to win the tie.

Despite being outplayed in terms of expected goals in both legs, Inter kept two clean sheets against FC Porto in the Round of 16 and won both matches by a 1-0 scoreline. Expect them to try to keep things tight with an organised defence in a similar fashion here in the first leg, as there is always a chance of nicking a goal against the run of play.