Napoli vs AC Milan Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

Napoli are on the verge of sealing the Serie A title, but AC Milan will try to gatecrash the party at Stadio Armando Maradona on Sunday.

In the clash between the reigning champions and the soon-to-be champions, this could be a true coming-of-age moment for Napoli, who had their championship dreams crushed by AC Milan last season.

This will be the first of three meetings between these two sides over the next three weeks. The Serie A outfits are also set to clash with each other over two legs in the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals.

Napoli hold an insurmountable lead atop Serie A. 19 points ahead of second-placed Lazio, the Partenepoi are nearly assured of winning their first Scudetto since Diego Maradona led the club to the holy grail twice, in 1987 and 1990.

They showcased their powers yet again just before the international break when they thrashed tricky Torino 4-0. Making light work of the league is one thing, but getting this far in the Champions League is unprecedented for Napoli. They have never before progressed to the quarter-finals of Europe’s main club competition.

The title favourites now face reigning champions AC Milan on Sunday. And Luciano Spalletti’s team will not want to pass up the chance to add further misery to the Rossoneri’s current woes.

Indeed, Milan went on a four-game winless streak prior to the international break, losing back-to-back away league games at Fiorentina and Udinese, either side of dire stalemates against Tottenham and Salernitana. While Pioli’s shift to a more pragmatic back-three system allowed Milan to end a disastrous run since the turn of the year, they have lacked spark in attack lately.

The Rossoneri will be encouraged by the fact they delivered one of their best showings of the season against Napoli in the reverse fixture back in September, albeit they lost that game 2-1 at San Siro.

Team News & Tactics

Napoli

The runaway Serie A leaders will be without the services of star striker Victor Osimhen due to a groin injury when they host champions AC Milan this Sunday. The Nigerian is expected to be out for two weeks. Giacomo Raspadori has resumed full training and could even replace Osimhen if he recovers in time.

However, this game may come too soon for the 23-year-old, who last featured back in February. Diego Demme and Bartosz Bereszynski are unlikely to feature as their recoveries resume from long-term injuries.

Luciano Spalletti is unlikely to make many changes to his regular starting XI for Sunday’s encounter, with Giovanni Simeone spearheading the attack expected to be the only major change at the weekend.

While Napoli have earned plaudits for their breathtaking attacking play, their defensive record has been brilliant recently. The rearguard, consisting of Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Kim Min-jae, Amir Rrahmani, and Mario Rui in front of shot-stopper Alex Meret, has been virtually impregnable.

Stanislav Lobotka will aim to pull the strings from the middle of the park, while Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa and Piotr Zielinski will look to push the side forward and provide ball progression and ball recovery to sustain dominance over their opponent.

Osimhen has been scoring at a rate of nearly one goal per game in Serie A this season. Losing such a consistent source of goals would be a big miss for any team. But in Simeone, Napoli have one of the best strikers in Italy.

The deadly Argentine finisher looks like he finds the net every time he steps out onto the pitch as a substitute and will be looking to impress here. Meanwhile, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Matteo Politano will look to wreak havoc from the flanks.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Kim, Rrahmani, Rui; Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski; Politano, Simeone, Kvaratskhelia

AC Milan

Stefano Pioli will have to decide how to twist with the team that lost to Udinese before the international break. Big changes are expected as Pioli looks for a response from his players. For a start, the switch to a 4-2-3-1 system could see captain Davide Calabria returning to the lineup for the first time since the start of February in an attempt to combat Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

Pierre Kalulu is sidelined after sustaining a calf injury on international duty. So it looks like Simon Kjaer will return to the heart of Milan’s defence ahead of Malick Thiaw to partner Fikayo Tomori. Theo Hernandez is expected to return to the XI after recovering from the sickness that kept him out of the Udinese match.

The double pivot of Sandro Tonali and Ismael Bennacer will look to provide difficult competition to Stanislav Lobotka and co. in the middle of the park.

Elsewhere in between the sticks, Mike Maignan hit the headlines during the international break for a stunning late save against the Republic of Ireland in Dublin to power France to a 1-0 victory. And the 27-year-old French shot-stopper will need to be at his sharpest on Sunday to keep Napoli at bay as he will have his hands full up against a rampant Napoli attack.

Brahim Diaz will aim to engineer promising situations in attack from the No. 10 role, while Rade Krunic will offer a consistent energetic presence in advanced areas of the pitch. Rafael Leao has been out of form of late, with his last strike for the Rossoneri coming in a 2-2 away draw with Lecce in January.

However, with Pioli likely returning to his old setup, Leao will get more leeway and should be able to thrive out wide on the left flank. Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who recently became the club’s oldest goalscorer, has sustained yet another injury and is a major doubt for the encounter. Fortunately for the visitors, Olivier Giroud will be able to return after serving his suspension in the last match.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez; Bennacer, Tonali; Krunic, Diaz, Leao; Giroud

Key Stats

• Napoli have won 11 of their 13 home games in the league this term.
• The hosts have won 21 of their last 23 Serie A matches.
• Napoli have kept a clean sheet in six of their last seven Serie A matches.
• Over the stretch of the last nine Serie A matches, only Lecce (six) have endured more defeats than Milan (five), and only Cremonese (17) have shipped more goals than the Rossoneri (16) in the Italian top flight.
• The Rossoneri have won only two of their last 16 league matches against the Azzurri (D5 L9), but they have won two of the last five (L3).

Player to Watch

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

The in-demand Victor Osimhen was the obvious pick. Having scored four goals in his last two outings for Napoli, he was in excellent shape to wreak havoc on a sloppy Milan defence.

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However, the Nigerian is set to miss out here after picking up a thigh injury on international duty. In his absence, expect his partner-in-crime Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to step up to the plate as he looks to score in a third Serie A outing in a row. In total, the silky winger has posted 12 goals and as many assists from 23 top-flight games.

The in-demand Georgian winger is also on the verge of signing a new-and-improved contract with the Serie A champions-elect. And that will be nothing more than what he deserves, having led the Partenopei’s title charge from the front during a spectacular introduction to life in Serie A and mainstream Europe as a whole.

Prediction

Napoli 2-0 AC Milan

Napoli can reaffirm their position as champions-elect with a victory over defending Serie A champions AC Milan in front of their home crowd. Nonetheless, the visitors will not make the lengthy journey south just to take part in a token celebration. Stefano Pioli’s men will be determined to return to winning ways with a positive outcome.

Unfortunately for Stefano Pioli’s side, it is hard to see past a Napoli win this weekend if the Partenopei are on song. Even though the hosts can afford to take their foot off the gas, they have not taken their eyes off the ball and have been ruthless, with their last eight victories all coming to nil.

Given Napoli’s excellent form and Milan’s inability to provide a consistent offensive danger in recent weeks, The Hard Tackle backs the home side to storm to a comfortable 2-0 win, delivering a psychological setback to the Rossoneri in this Champions League dress rehearsal.