Fiorentina vs AC Milan Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

Saturday’s Serie A action rounds off with a mouthwatering fixture at the Stadio Artemio Franchi between Fiorentina and AC Milan.

Apparently getting back to basics and returning to winning ways after their shocking post-World Cup slump, AC Milan will look to make it five straight wins in a row on Saturday when they travel to Florence to take on Vincenzo Italiano’s Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi.

A terrible start to 2023 saw AC Milan go seven games without a victory, tumbling out of Serie A’s top four and giving up silverware hopes in the form of the Coppa Italia and Supercoppa Italiana. But Stefano Pioli’s men have bounced back in style to string together a consistent run of results.

A run of four straight wins, three of them in Serie A, has catapulted the Scudetto holders back into the box seat to secure UEFA Champions League qualification. Meanwhile, they also hold a one-goal first-leg advantage in the Champions League Round of 16 tie against Tottenham Hotspur.

However, last week’s comfortable 2-0 win over fellow top-four hopefuls Atalanta was the Rossoneri’s most impressive result since the turn of the year, as they reduced a free-flowing La Dea to zero shots on target. Pioli’s switch to a 3-4-3 style has proven to be an inspiring one, as they have kept four consecutive clean sheets. And as a result, they are hot favourites to get three points against Fiorentina on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Fiorentina are coming off a big 3-0 win over Hellas Verona, in which the scoreline papered over some serious cracks. The fact that the Verona triumph was their first success in the past seven league assignments shows how far their stock has fallen. They are currently languishing in 12th with 28 points so far.

La Viola have had a miserable start to the year. But maybe Vincenzo Italiano’s men have started to find some form towards the business end of this difficult season. The 3-0 thumping of Verona ended a six-game losing streak in Serie A, which had been punctuated by spectacular victories in the Coppa Italia and Europa Conference League, where they dismantled Braga 7-2 on aggregate.

Fiorentina were beaten 2-1 by Milan in November’s reverse fixture, though they did achieve a remarkable 4-3 win in the corresponding meeting last season, with braces from Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Dusan Vlahovic. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at their squads and tries to predict the tactics they could deploy.

Team News & Tactics

Fiorentina

Fiorentina boss Vincenzo Italiano has a clean bill of health and almost a full-strength squad at his disposal and could rotate his starting XI ahead of a critical European tie with Sivasspor on Thursday.

Italiano is likely to go with a 4-2-3-1 against Milan. Pietro Terracciano is set to start in goal behind the back four of Dodo, Nikola Milenkovic, Igor, and Cristiano Biraghi. The midfield is likely to be set up in a double pivot, with Rolando Mandragora and Sofyan Ambrabat forming a dynamic duo in the middle of the park.

Milan’s relentless press has been difficult for anyone to deal with; the Rossoneri have successfully suffocated opponents, thus the vital area for the Viola is the middle of the park. They should be able to generate some good moves if they can dominate that department. Otherwise, it’s going to be a long day.

Milan’s defenders have been excellent at man-marking opposition centre forwards, so Arthur Cabral’s mobility may be preferred once again to Luka Jovic. If he can pull wide or drop deep and open spaces for the wingers, Nicolas Gonzalez and Riccardo Saponara, to attack, while midfielder Giacomo Bonaventura will play the hybrid role and will provide the impetus to push forward when needed.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Terracciano; Dodo, Milenkovic, Igor, Biraghi; Amrabat, Mandragora; Gonzalez, Bonaventura, Saponara; Cabral

AC Milan

AC Milan will be without Rade Krunic and Rafael Leao, with both ruled out due to suspension. Stefano Piolo has confirmed playmaker Brahim Diaz has sustained a knee injury and faces a race against time to be fit for the game against Spurs, meaning he will certainly not be available for the trip to Florence. Matteo Gabbia is another doubt for the away game, with the Rossoneri defender suffering from a fever.

On the positive side of things, the Rossoneri received a huge boost with Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s return from an anterior cruciate ligament injury last time out.

Stefano Pioli has salvaged Milan’s season by switching to a 3-4-2-1 formation and its variants, leading to the reigning champions’ revival. Not only has Malick Thiaw’s integration into the starting lineup plugged the Rossoneri’s defensive leak. But they have won their last four competitive games to nil. Rock-solid, or, dare we say, concrete, in every sense.

He looks set to continue the same formation here, with Pierre Kalulu and Fikayo Tomori partnering Thiaw in the three-man central defensive unit in front of goalkeeper Mike Maignan.

After blowing hot and cold throughout the season, Junior Messias has been on a roll in late February, scoring in Milan’s last two Serie A matches, including a winner at Monza. He’ll be hoping to be a difference-maker here from the right wing-back position. On the other hand, Theo Hernandez will move infield and carry the ball forward for devastating effect on the opposite flank.

Sandro Tonali and Ismael Bennacer are expected to run the show in midfield. With top scorer Rafael Leao out of this game, Olivier Giroud is right behind him with seven goals scored in the league this season.

So, it’s safe to assume that with Leao out, Giroud will have to shoulder a lot of the team’s attacking responsibilities. He will lead the line and have the support of Charles de Ketelaere, and Ante Rebic in the attacking third.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Maignan; Kalulu, Thiaw, Tomori; Messias, Bennacer, Tonali, Hernandez; De Ketelaere, Rebic; Giroud

Key Stats

• Fiorentina have scored at least three goals in three of their last four games.
• Fiorentina’s home record in Serie A this term is mixed (W4 D4 L4). But a three-game winless league streak at the Franchi does not bode well heading into this clash against the reigning champions (D1, L2).
• Fiorentina have kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 home games.
• Milan have won each of their last four games without conceding a goal.
• Milan have won four of their last five meetings against Fiorentina.

Player to Watch

Mike Maignan

Mike Maignan’s absence on the pitch has been sorely felt since he picked up an unfortunate injury in mid-September 2022. The typical defensive compactness that marked a very solid and title-winning Rossoneri side last season has gone, inflicting significant damage to their title defence hopes.

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The downgrade from Maignan to Ciprian Tatarusanu is a huge one, with the latter leaking goals for fun and quickly becoming the target of Milan fans’ wrath on social media as he failed to provide his defence with any sense of security.

Maignan looked his best on his return between the sticks during Milan’s last outing. And his return will bolster the backline, making an even more formidable defence beside their newly constructed five-at-the-back wing-back system.

Prediction

Fiorentina 0-1 AC Milan

Neither Fiorentina nor AC Milan are in prolific form in front of goal. So it is tough to see this one being a thriller. Despite widely being regarded as a good footballing side, La Viola’s inability to score has dropped them to the bottom half of the table. On the other hand, Milan have tightened up at the back lately.

With that in mind, the showdown at the Stadio Artemio Franchi is expected to be a cagey and way too wide-open an affair, with both sides missing a bucketload of chances.

With both teams looking ahead to crucial European ties in the midweek, rotation and squad depth could come into play. And that may favour the visitors. Couple that with Milan’s fine form coming into this encounter, and the Rossoneri are expected to edge the contest with a narrow scoreline.