Leeds United vs Southampton Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

A Premier League relegation six-pointer will beckon us when Leeds United and Southampton clash at Elland Road on Saturday.

The games are coming thick and fast across Europe, with Gameweek 25 beginning in the Premier League on Friday. Fulham and Wolverhampton Wanderers will kick things off in the latest round of fixtures. And the action on Saturday will start at Elland Road, with Leeds United and Southampton meeting in a relegation six-pointer.

Leeds United narrowly staved off relegation in the 2022/23 season after appointing Jesse Marsch. And they would have hoped for a better campaign this term after a solid start in the opening month. But the Whites’ performance levels fell dramatically, resulting in Marsch’s departure from Elland Road. And Javi Gracia has taken over as the manager, with Leeds second from the bottom.

The Whites are marginally better than their visitors this weekend, with Southampton rooted to the bottom of the table. The Saints have already sacked two managers, with Ruben Selles taking over as the caretaker manager following the departures of Ralph Hasenhuttl and Nathan Jones. And after beating Chelsea 1-0 last weekend, he has become the permanent boss until the end of the season.

The reverse fixture saw Southampton come from two goals down to hold Leeds United to a 2-2 draw. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.

Team News & Tactics

Leeds United

Javi Gracia has a new injury concern hampering his preparations ahead of his first game at Elland Road. Against Southampton on Saturday, the newly-appointed Leeds United manager might be bereft of the services of as many as eight first-team players.

Maximilian Wober dislocated his shoulder against Everton last weekend and will be unavailable for the foreseeable future. The Austrian defender has joined Stuart Dallas (thigh), Adam Forshaw (knock), Archie Gray (ankle), and Rodrigo Moreno (ankle) on the sidelines.

Meanwhile, Pascal Struijk (concussion), Marc Roca (knock), and Luis Sinisterra (hamstring) are significant doubts for the fixture. But Gracia has enough quality at his disposal to name a strong starting eleven against Southampton.

Illan Meslier will take his usual spot between the sticks, with Leeds lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in front of him. Wober’s absence means Robin Koch and Liam Cooper should form the central defensive partnership. Meanwhile, Rasmus Kristensen and Junior Firpo will likely be the two full-backs.

Tyler Adams has been one of the bright spots for Leeds this season and will sit in the double pivot. The USMNT international will line up alongside compatriot Weston McKennie in the middle of the park. And the duo will adopt a forward-thinking approach in the midfield battle.

Brenden Aaronson will be the most advanced midfielder for Leeds, with the American attacker pulling the strings for Leeds. But Wilfried Gnonto and Crysencio Summerville will be the game-changers from the flanks. Finally, Patrick Bamford will likely spearhead the attack on Saturday.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Kristensen, Koch, Cooper, Firpo; Adams, McKennie; Summerville, Aaronson, Gnonto; Bamford

Southampton

Like his counterpart in the Leeds United dugout, Ruben Selles has a new issue on his hands ahead of the trip to St. Mary’s. The Southampton manager might be without five first-team players on Saturday.

Stuart Armstrong is the latest absentee, with the Scottish international recovering from a minor issue. Alex McCarthy (ankle), Juan Larios (match fitness), Valentino Livramento (knee), and Che Adams (knock) remain unavailable.

There is no looking past Gavin Bazunu between the sticks, with Southampton lining up in a 4-4-2 formation in front of him. Ainsley Maitland-Niles made a rare appearance last week against Chelsea. And the 25-year-old should retain his spot as the right-back this weekend.

Romain Perraud picks himself on the left flank, while Jan Bednarek and Armel Bella-Kotchap will form the central defensive partnership. As for the midfield pairing, Romeo Lavia has been one of the standout performers for Southampton this season.

The former Manchester City midfielder will likely start alongside James Ward-Prowse again. So January signing Carlos Alcaraz will have to make do with a spot on the bench. Meanwhile, Ward-Prowse will aim to make a difference again after his match-winner against Chelsea last week.

Moussa Djenepo will likely replace Armstrong on the right wing, with Mohamed Elyounoussi featuring on the left flank. The duo will be direct and look to take on the Leeds defenders. Finally, Kamaldeen Sulemana and Paul Onuachu should be the two strikers for Southampton on Saturday.

Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Bazunu; Maitland-Niles, Bednarek, Bella-Kotchap, Perraud; Djenepo, Ward-Prowse, Lavia, Elyounoussi; Sulemana, Onuachu

Key Stats

• Leeds United have lost just one of their 14 Premier League games at Elland Road against Southampton (W7 D6) and are unbeaten in their last eight since a 1-0 loss in February 1998. The Saints have won three of their last eight Premier League games against Leeds (D3 L2), as many as they had in their first 21 against them in the competition (D6 L12).
• Leeds United are winless in their last 10 Premier League games (D4 L6), the longest current winless run in the competition. Only twice have the Whites had a longer run without a win in the top-flight – 17 games between February-May 1947 and 14 games between December 1926 and March 1927.
• Four of Southampton’s five Premier League wins this season have come away from home, including a 1-0 victory at Chelsea last time out. They have earned 67% of their points on the road thus far this term (12/18). As it stands, that is the joint-highest share in a single top-flight campaign (level with Blackpool in 1966/67 and Crystal Palace in 1997/98).
• Teams starting the day bottom have won nine Premier League games this season, the most in a single campaign since 2017/18 (12). Southampton have been responsible for two of these wins (2-1 vs Everton, 1-0 vs Chelsea), while one of the other victories came against Leeds United (2-0 to Leicester in October).
• Patrick Bamford has scored three Premier League goals against Southampton, including his first-ever strike in the competition while at Middlesbrough in May 2017. He has only scored more in the top flight against Aston Villa (4).

Player to Watch

James Ward-Prowse

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With both teams desperate for a win, fine margins will determine the final outcome. Keeping that in mind, set-piece situations will become extremely crucial in this relegation six-pointer. And who else to pounce on these scenarios than James Ward-Prowse?

The Englishman is on the cusp of history following his goal against Chelsea last weekend. And he is just one short of David Beckham’s Premier League record for most direct free-kick goals in the competition (18). Amid Southampton’s struggles, Ward-Prowse is attracting plenty of interest. But he will be keen on delivering the goods for his side and leading by example against Leeds.

Prediction

Leeds United 1-1 Southampton

Leeds United had been sweating over Javi Gracia’s work-permit situation ahead of hosting Southampton. And Friday has brought some good news, with the Spaniard set to feature in the dugout this weekend. And the newly-appointment manager will be eager to turn a recent poor record.

The Whites have won just one of their last nine Premier League home games (D4 L4), failing to score the last two. They have not gone three games without a goal at Elland Road in the top flight in January 2004. And the pressure cooker situation of the relegation battle might end the drought.

But Leeds United’s backline often leaves a lot to be desired. And with Maximilian Wober and Pascal Struijk unavailable, Southampton will find a way to score. In the end, there might not be much to separate the two sides. And The Hard Tackle predicts a 1-1 draw at Elland Road.