Empoli vs AC Milan Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

Scudetto holders AC Milan will look to return to winning ways when they make the trip to Empoli on Saturday.

Reigning champions AC Milan return to action on Saturday night when they take on Empoli in Serie A. The match marks the return of domestic action after the two-week international break.

Empoli have won just three of their past 28 Serie A games in a woeful streak which goes all the way back to last December. Their first win of the campaign at Bologna last time around relieved some of the pressure that was beginning to grow on Paolo Zanetti – though they have lost only one of their six league games this season, picking up four draws in the process.

The hosts currently sit 14th in the table with seven points and will have to play out of their skins to get something out of this clash against a Milan side that did the double over them last season, and are on a three-game winning streak against them.

Meanwhile, Milan will be aiming to bounce back following their first defeat of the season before the international break. They fell to a narrow 2-1 home defeat at the hands of title-rivals Napoli, with substitute Giovanni Simeone clinching the winning goal after Milan had equalised through Olivier Giroud.

The Rossoneri currently sit fifth in the Serie A table, three points adrift of the league leaders, Napoli and Atalanta. Despite being the heavy favourites, they have been far from the most convincing defending champions in the early parts of the season, with two frustrating draws on the road in Serie A this term, but their trips to Atalanta and Sassuolo were always going to be tricky.

Still, Stefano Pioli’s side needs to be more consistent, and a strong win over Empoli this weekend will do them no harm as they look to kick off this crucial and busy six-week fixture stretch in style ahead of the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

Team News & Tactics

Empoli

Tommaso Baldanzi and Mattia Destro are both available for selection this weekend, but Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro has been ruled out for the Milan clash after picking up a serious muscle injury in training.

Paolo Zanetti has a reputation for trying to play football on the front foot, but he rapidly had to adjust to his circumstances with a struggling side last season. However, Empoli are playing attractive, aggressive football in the top flight this term, having dominated Roma in a narrow 2-1 defeat in mid-September.

Zanetti has settled for a 4-3-1-2 formation over time, and will opt for the same here, but will make a few tweaks in personnel from the side that brought Empoli their first win of the season last time out, with Koni De Winter likely to replace the injured Ardian Ismajli in defence.

Guglielmo Vicario was the key performer in their win against Bologna a fortnight ago and will remain between the sticks for Empoli behind a back four of Petar Stojanovic, Sebastiano Luperto, De Winter, and Fabiano Parisi.

Razvan Marin is expected to start in the midfield-three, with Nicolas Haas, and captain Filippo Bandinelli on either side of the Romanian playmaker. The mid-block will be tasked with choking Milan’s creative players with intense press and seizing control of the middle of the park.

Doing so will permit attacking midfielder Nedim Bajrami to roam into open spaces in order to churn opportunities for strikers, Martin Satriano, and Sam Lammers, with Destro another striking option available on the bench.

Probable Lineup (4-3-1-2): Vicario; Stojanovic, De Winter, Luperto, Parisi; Haas, Marin, Bandinelli; Bajrami; Satriano, Lammers

AC Milan

Stefano Pioli has received a mixed bag of updates on the team news front ahead of their trip to Empoli. Mike Maignan (muscular) and Theo Hernandez (muscular) join long-term absentees Divock Origi and Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the sidelines, although Maignan will likely return to action at the end of October.

The positive news is that both Sandro Tonali and Davide Calabria have been declared fit to train with the squad, putting them in contention for the game against Empoli.

Milan are likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation but Pioli will make several changes from the defeat to Napoli before the international break, Second-choice shot-stopper Ciprian Tatarusanu will be the starting goalkeeper for AC Milan for most of October’s games, with Maignan currently recovering from an injury.

In defence, Fikayo Tomori is a sure starter, and Pierre Kalulu should get the nod ahead of Simon Kjaer as the centre-back at the heart of Milan’s backline. Hernandez’s void in the left-back slot will likely be filled by Fode Ballo-Tourè, with skipper Davide Calabria taking up his usual right-back berth.

Up ahead in midfield, Tonali could well start alongside Ismael Bennacer in the double pivot. Pioli has Tommaso Pobega and Rade Krunic as backup options to call upon if Tonali is not deemed fit enough to start here.

In attack, Rafael Leao has been in a rich vein of form and could once again prove to be his side’s biggest threat, cutting inside off the left. Junior Messi is ahead of Alexis Saelemaekers in the pecking order for the right-wing spot, whereas Charles De Ketelaere will be the service provider behind target-man Olivier Giroud, who is the club’s top-scorer with four league goals this season.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Tatarusanu; Calabria, Tomori, Kalulu, Ballo-Toure; Bennacer, Tonali; Messias, De Ketelaere, Leao; Giroud

Key Stats

• AC Milan have lost only one of their past 11 Serie A meetings against Empoli (W6, D4).
• Empoli have never beaten Milan in Serie A at home, with their only victory on home soil coming in the Coppa Italia way back in 1986.
• The hosts are winless at home this season in Serie A (1L, 2D), while the visitors are unbeaten on their travels this season (1W, 2D).
• In fact, Stefano Pioli’s side are undefeated in their last 15 away Serie A matches.
• Empoli have only won one of their eight games in all competitions this season.

Player to Watch

Rafael Leao

Fortunately for the visitors, talisman Rafael Leao will return from his suspension for the clash against Empoli. The Portuguese winger has provided six goal contributions in his opening six games for Milan and looks set to return to domestic football with a bang and secure a win for the visitors following a very fruitful international break with Portugal.

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His chemistry and compatibility with Olivier Giroud have become absolutely crucial to AC Milan’s attack this season, and Leao will be chomping at the bit to add to his three-goal tally at the weekend.

Prediction

Empoli 0-2 AC Milan

While some may think Milan have made a struggling start to their title defence according to their points tally, and rightly so, with them currently lying in the Europa League spots, the underlying stats tell a different story.

Based on xG, they have been the joint-third best-attacking team and second-best defensive outfit in Serie A this season, indicating a solid start for Stefano Pioli’s side. Empoli, on the other hand, have been in dire form over the last year or so.

However, they are showing a decent level of compactness at the back, and have not conceded many goals this term (7), but neither have they been scoring many either (6), so they might struggle to produce a highly clinical display against Milan. All in all, the Rossoneri should be confident of bouncing back with a routine win over Empoli on Saturday.