The Hard Tackle lists the five best differentials to consider to bring into your team heading into FPL Gameweek 16 of the 2025/26 season.
Gameweek 16 looks like one of those weeks where brave FPL managers can steal a march on their mini-leagues by backing the right differentials rather than hiding behind template picks. With several mid-table sides facing each other and a few big teams nursing inconsistency, there is room for smart punts that balance upside with just enough security to not wreck your season.
The five names below are not the usual headliners, but their fixtures, roles and underlying numbers combine nicely with very low ownership to create real opportunity. This is also the point in the season where early-season narratives start to break. Teams that looked solid at the back in August and September are beginning to show cracks as the schedule bites, while a few slow-starting attackers are finally finding rhythm and fitness.
That makes fixture analysis even more important than raw form: a good player with a decent role, facing a defence on the slide, can easily outscore a bigger name in a tougher match-up. Another crucial angle is how you want your squad to behave over the next few weeks.
Some of these picks are short-term punches aimed squarely at Gameweek 16, others look like players you could happily keep for a small run if they click. Ownership is a massive part of the appeal: all five sit under four per cent, which means even a single haul can swing your FPL rank in a hurry.
With that in mind, the focus here is on attackers with clear routes to goals or assists and defenders who can combine clean-sheet potential with attacking threat or bonus-friendly profiles. Leeds United’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Fulham duo Harry Wilson and Calvin Bassey, Manchester City’s Rayan Cherki and Manchester United’s Diogo Dalot form a spine of differentials that can refresh a stale squad just in time for the festive chaos.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin: betting against Brentford’s wobble
Leeds United’s trip to Brentford in Gameweek 16 puts Dominic Calvert-Lewin right in the conversation for forward transfers. Brentford may sit in mid-table, but beneath the surface their defensive numbers are much less convincing than in previous seasons, with the Bees conceding regularly and relying on their keeper and last-ditch blocks more than a truly controlled structure.
A side positioned around the lower mid-table with that level of defensive strain is exactly the kind of opponent a penalty-box striker like Calvert-Lewin loves facing. Meanwhile, after a sluggish start at Leeds United, Calvert-Lewin has quietly stitched together a useful run of form.
Recent appearances include strong performances against Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool, four Premier League goals from roughly two dozen shots this season. His shot map shows a healthy share of efforts from central areas inside the box, and his aerial dominance remains a key weapon for Leeds United when they go more direct.
With FPL ownership hovering around 1.7%, he sits firmly in the true differential bracket, meaning any double-digit return at Brentford could give managers a huge green arrow at a price that still feels kind on the budget.
Harry Wilson: Burnley’s leaky defence in his sights
Fulham host Burnley in Gameweek 16, and that fixture alone should push Harry Wilson onto watchlists. Burnley’s fairytale defensive record in the EFL Championship is a distant memory now; in the Premier League this season they are conceding around two goals per game on average, with underlying expected-goals-against numbers also pointing to sustained vulnerability rather than mere bad luck.
They give up chances in central areas and are often forced into emergency defending once opponents break their first line of pressure, which suits a left-footed creator like Wilson who thrives in half-spaces around the box. Meanwhile, Wilson’s 2025/26 league campaign has been steady rather than explosive so far, but there are encouraging signs.
The Welshman has been a regular in Fulham’s XI, with league and cup appearances showing him chipping in with goals in wins over Brentford, Wolves, and Tottenham Hotspur, alongside consistent minutes in other fixtures. He also scored in the recent defeat to Crystal Palace, suggesting improving form.
Wilson’s career record underlines that he is capable of strings of attacking returns when confidence clicks, and this is exactly the kind of opponent where he can spike. With FPL ownership around the 2.6% mark, Wilson offers a blend of set-piece involvement, open-play threat and low ownership that makes him a classic midfield differential for this gameweek.
Rayan Cherki: Crystal Palace’s inconsistency meets Manchester City’s wildcard
Rayan Cherki has endured a stop-start introduction to life at Manchester City, but when he gets on the pitch, he looks like a player who can swing FPL weeks almost on his own. His Premier League 2025/26 numbers feature a goal and multiple assists in a relatively small number of appearances.
The data shows a player who averages high shot and chance-creation numbers per 90, with top-end percentiles for non-penalty expected goals, assists, shots and dribbles, which is exactly the sort of underlying profile that tends to erupt when minutes stabilize.
Crystal Palace arrive as Manchester City’s Gameweek 16 opponents with a league position that flatters them slightly but a form line that reveals ups and downs. Their defensive metrics show a side conceding around 1.3 expected goals against per match, and although their actual goals conceded per game is lower, they rely on fine margins and do not always control games against elite attacks.
That leaves space for creative attackers like Cherki to exploit, especially if Crystal Palace are forced deeper and Manchester City can pin them back. With FPL ownership around 3.8%, Cherki is the kind of risky-but-exciting punt that could reward managers willing to back his talent and City’s attacking ecosystem in what should be an open match.
Diogo Dalot: attacking full-back versus patchy Bournemouth
Manchester United’s home game against Bournemouth in Gameweek 16 is not the simplest fixture on paper, but Bournemouth’s form across the season has been streaky enough to target. Their defensive numbers show a team that can concede heavily in poor spells, with a goals-allowed total that places them among the more generous backlines in the division and an underlying record of giving up a steady stream of chances.
For a defender like Diogo Dalot, who is heavily involved in build-up and final-third actions, that combination of clean-sheet potential and attacking opportunity is intriguing. The Portuguese international’s 2025/26 campaign again highlights why he is often more valuable in fantasy terms than real-life discourse suggests.
Performance data shows him registering assists from right-back and contributing meaningfully in the attacking third, with high touch counts and progressive passing numbers underscoring his role in Manchester United’s forward play.
Dalot’s season stats include a handful of attacking returns across league and international duty, and his heat maps show him frequently advanced high up the pitch. With FPL ownership close to just over one per cent, Dalot offers a route into Manchester United’s defence that combines attacking upside with the possibility of bonus points if the Red Devils grind out a win.
Calvin Bassey: double-differential against blunt Burnley
If Harry Wilson is one way to attack Fulham’s home fixture against Burnley, Calvin Bassey is the defensive mirror image, and potentially an even sharper differential. Burnley’s offensive output this season has been poor, with the Clarets scoring well barely over one goal per game and posting modest expected-goals numbers that confirm the eye test of a side struggling to create and finish chances consistently.
For Fulham, who have looked competitive in several tight games, this is a prime opportunity to add another clean sheet to the column. Bassey’s 2025/26 numbers show a defender who has already put together multiple league appearances and at least one clean sheet for Fulham, with performance data highlighting his contribution as a strong central presence in Marco Silva’s backline.
His profile as a combative, left-footed centre-back makes him attractive in systems that reward clearances, blocks and duels, which can feed into bonus points when Fulham keep the door shut. Joachim Andersen, who has put together a solid season with clean sheets and strong underlying defensive metrics, is also a worthy differential consideration at centre-back.
But with Bassey’s FPL ownership around just 0.6%, he becomes a “differential inside a differential”, a pick that not many managers will even consider in a week where the Fulham defence is well worth backing.
FPL differential recommendations at a glance
| Player | Club | GW16 Opponent | Main appeal | Risk level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Leeds United | Brentford (A) | In-form penalty-box striker facing a defence conceding regularly and under mid-table pressure, with sub-2% ownership for big upside. | Medium – recent form is good but Leeds can be volatile away from home. |
| Harry Wilson | Fulham | Burnley (H) | Creative winger and set-piece threat up against one of the league’s most porous defences, at around 2.6% ownership. | Medium – Fulham’s attack can blow hot and cold, so returns may come in bursts. |
| Rayan Cherki | Manchester City | Crystal Palace (H) | High-ceiling creator with excellent per-90 attacking numbers in a dominant attack against a defensively inconsistent side. | High – minutes are not fully nailed and competition for places at City is intense. |
| Diogo Dalot | Manchester United | Bournemouth (H) | Attacking full-back with assist potential and bonus-friendly profile against a defence that can concede in bunches. | Medium – United’s defensive solidity is not guaranteed and Dalot’s returns rely on team performance. |
| Calvin Bassey | Fulham | Burnley (H) | Strong centre-back with clean-sheet potential versus a blunt Burnley attack, owned by around 0.6% of managers. | Low–Medium – limited attacking threat, so points rely heavily on the clean sheet coming in. |
Honourable mentions
There are plenty of other names who deserve a look if you want to lean even harder into differentials for Gameweek 16. Joachim Andersen remains an excellent centre-back option, with defensive stats that show a solid clean-sheet platform and reliable minutes at the heart of his back line.
Ben White continues to offer a steady route into a strong Arsenal defence, often chipping in with bonus points thanks to his passing and duels. Meanwhile, teammate Piero Hincapie stands out as a progressive defender with attacking upside, while Mikel Merino offers a box-to-box midfield threat who can pop up with both goals and assists.
Among attack-minded midfielder, Harvey Barnes remains a classic FPL streak player capable of quickfire hauls when fit. As for forward, Callum Wilson’s penalty and open-play threat make him perennially dangerous when he strings minutes together. Ollie Watkins, though far from a secret, is still worth mentioning for managers who need a more “template-adjacent” forward with a track record of steady returns over explosive one-off hauls.
