Mexico’s meeting with England has all the makings of another World Cup shock, and the tournament’s underdogs have already shown exactly how such upsets can happen.
This World Cup has quietly turned into a celebration of the outsider, with lesser‑fancied nations turning supposed mismatches into arm‑wrestles and, in some cases, famous scalps. The pattern has been clear: disciplined defending, clever game management, and an absolute refusal to be intimidated by reputations or rankings.
Cape Verde, DR Congo, Paraguay and others have proved that in this tournament, hierarchy on paper means little once the whistle goes. Their stories are not just romantic subplots; they form the backdrop against which Mexico now prepare to take on England in perhaps the most hazardous tie yet for one of the competition’s favourites.
Cape Verde’s fairytale debut
Few teams have embodied the spirit of this World Cup quite like Cape Verde. Ranked outside the traditional elite and playing in their first tournament, they arrived in Group H alongside European champions Spain, two‑time winners Uruguay and seasoned campaigners Saudi Arabia. Expectations from the wider football world were modest at best; inside their camp, belief was anything but.
Their opening match against Spain set the tone. Cape Verde produced a defensive performance that bordered on heroic, staying compact, tracking runners and refusing to panic under waves of Spanish possession in a 0‑0 draw that stunned the favourites. For a debutant side to keep a reigning European champion goalless in a World Cup match is remarkable in itself; to do it with such calmness and structure suggested this was no fluke.
They followed it up with a 2‑2 draw against Uruguay, showing another side to their game. Rather than simply sitting back, Cape Verde countered with intent and matched the South Americans goal for goal, earning a result that left the group wide open. A final 0‑0 draw against Saudi Arabia then sealed an unbeaten group phase and second place, sending them through to face defending champions Argentina.
Even in a narrow 3‑2 defeat, Cape Verde stuck to their identity, mixing resilience without the ball with sharp, opportunistic attacking. This sequence- holding Spain, trading punches with Uruguay, and pushing Argentina to the limit- turned Cape Verde from unknowns into one of the tournament’s most loved sides.
At a World Cup co‑hosted in the Americas, their journey has underlined how preparation, organisation and unity can narrow the gap against giants.
DR Congo’s long‑awaited return
If Cape Verde’s run has been a fairytale debut, DR Congo’s campaign has felt like a long‑overdue return to the global stage. This has been their first World Cup in more than fifty years, and the Leopards have used it to write a new chapter in the country’s footballing history.
Their opener against Portugal was supposed to be straightforward for the European heavyweights, but DR Congo tore up the script. A 1‑1 draw against one of the tournament’s strongest squads immediately announced that they would not be passengers. They showed compact defending, relentless work‑rate and enough composure on the ball to turn defence into attack rather than simply scrambling clear.
A narrow 1‑0 loss to Colombia could have derailed their momentum, yet they responded with arguably their most complete performance, beating Uzbekistan 3‑1 to secure progression as one of the best third‑placed teams. That victory, marked by energy and confidence in transition, confirmed that DR Congo were more than a plucky story; they were a side capable of managing pressure and playing on the front foot when the situation demanded it.
Their last‑32 tie against England almost produced one of the shocks of the tournament. DR Congo led 1‑0 and held that advantage deep into the second half, forcing England into a scrap they had not expected. It took two goals from Harry Kane, the second arriving in the closing stages, to turn the match around and break Congolese hearts.
Even in defeat, the reaction back home was overwhelmingly proud; this run united supporters and showed that the Leopards can stand toe‑to‑toe with world‑class opposition.
Paraguay: from group bruising to giant‑killing
Paraguay’s story has been built on resilience. Their tournament began in grim fashion with a 4‑1 defeat to the United States, a result that seemed to confirm fears about a team short on confidence and rhythm. Instead of folding, they regrouped and rediscovered their identity as an awkward, combative opponent.
A 1‑0 win over Turkiye re‑established their belief, built on tough defending and a willingness to scrap for every second ball. They then drew 0‑0 with Australia, keeping a clean sheet in a tense match to qualify as one of the best third‑placed teams. That foundation of defensive stability turned out to be perfect preparation for facing Germany in the round of 32.
Against the four‑time world champions, Paraguay produced one of the biggest shocks in World Cup knockout history. They drew 1‑1 over 120 minutes and then held their nerve in a dramatic penalty shoot‑out, with goalkeeper Orlando Gill making crucial saves and Jose Canale converting the decisive kick.
This was Germany’s first-ever loss on penalties at a World Cup, and the ranking gap, Paraguay 41st, Germany 10th, made it the fourth‑biggest knockout upset since FIFA rankings were introduced.
Their journey ended in the round of 16 against France, with Kylian Mbappe’s penalty settling a tight 1‑0 contest. Paraguay again delivered a physically imposing performance, disrupting France’s rhythm, contesting every challenge and forcing the favourites into a battle more than a football exhibition.
Some critics branded their style “dirty”, but others saw it as a legitimate, if aggressive, way for a smaller nation to compete at this level. From a heavy opening defeat to knocking Germany out and pushing France to the brink, Paraguay have shown how a team can grow into a tournament and redefine perceptions in the space of a few weeks.
Rankings turned upside‑down
The broader picture of this World Cup supports the sense that gaps between nations are shrinking. Cape Verde (64th), Curaçao (81st), Ghana (65th) and South Africa (54th) have all taken points off sides ranked far higher: Spain (3rd), Ecuador (29th), England (4th) and South Korea (28th). These are not isolated flukes; they reflect tactical planning, fitness work and the impact of players gaining experience in stronger leagues around the world.
Underdog results have also built on a wider history of knockout‑stage shocks. Paraguay’s win over Germany, for example, already sits among the most significant upsets since FIFA began using rankings, mentioned alongside Russia versus Spain in 2018 and South Korea’s famous eliminations of Italy and Spain in 2002. The message is consistent: higher‑ranked teams who treat such fixtures as routine risk being punished.
In this context, England’s path through the tournament has been more demanding than many expected. They have already had to dig themselves out of trouble against DR Congo, and now face a Mexico side emboldened by seeing others expose the vulnerabilities of the elite.
Why Mexico believe against England
All of these stories feed into the narrative surrounding Mexico versus England, a tie that carries far more danger for Thomas Tuchel’s team than a quick glance at rankings might suggest. The match will be played at altitude, in a stadium around 7,200 feet above sea level, which presents a genuine physiological challenge. Mexico are accustomed to playing and training in such conditions; England are not.
Reports indicate the game is likely to be brought forward, reducing the time England have to acclimatise properly. Without adequate preparation, players can struggle with reduced oxygen in the air, leading to fatigue, slower recovery and a drop in intensity, especially in the latter stages of matches. For a side that relies heavily on high tempo in transitions and late surges, that is a significant concern.
Mexico, by contrast, have built their game around energy, aggressive pressing and rapid counters, particularly down the flanks. Their comfort at altitude could allow them to maintain that intensity deeper into the match and turn the environment itself into a form of home advantage.
In addition, Mexico’s long World Cup history against heavyweight opposition, including memorable performances against the likes of Germany and Brazil in previous tournaments, gives them a psychological platform to believe they can trouble England again.
Footballing reasons for another upset
Altitude is only part of the story. On the pitch, there are several reasons why Mexico might fancy their chances of causing another upset. Their pressing structure can unsettle England’s attempts to play out from the back, particularly if Tuchel’s side line up with ball‑playing defenders who like to take an extra touch.
Mexico’s forwards and midfielders are capable of closing passing lanes quickly, forcing hurried clearances and mistakes that can be punished on the break. They also possess quick wide players who can exploit any space behind England’s full‑backs. If England push their wide defenders high to support attacks, counters into those vacated zones could become a recurring threat.
Set pieces provide another route: Mexico have shown they can deliver dangerous balls and attack them aggressively, while England’s record defending dead‑ball situations has not always been convincing.
There is also the question of game state. Should Mexico score first, they have the tactical discipline to drop into a compact shape and force England into patient, probing play at altitude, where energy management becomes crucial.
In such scenarios, frustration can creep in for the favourites, opening up further opportunities for Mexico on transition. The underdogs at this World Cup have repeatedly shown that once they gain a foothold, they are not easily pushed aside, and Mexico would have watched Cape Verde, DR Congo and Paraguay with interest.
England’s challenge: heart over hierarchy
None of this guarantees that Mexico will beat England; talent and depth still favour Southgate’s men, and they possess match‑winners capable of deciding tight games in an instant. However, this World Cup has underlined that having the better squad is only the start of the equation.
Spain needed a late goal to avoid disaster against Uruguay and help Cape Verde through; Germany, on paper vastly superior to Paraguay, still fell in penalties; England themselves have already had to come from behind against DR Congo.
For England, the challenge is to treat Mexico not as an obligation to be fulfilled but as a genuine test of their ability to handle awkward conditions, emotional pressure and a fearless opponent. If they do not, the tournament’s story of the underdog could yet claim another major scalp. Mexico arrive with the environment on their side, a clear tactical plan and a belief forged by seeing so many outsiders thrive.
In a World Cup defined by Cape Verde’s stubbornness, DR Congo’s pride and Paraguay’s giant‑killing, the meeting between Mexico and England feels less like a routine knockout tie and more like a fresh chapter in a competition where heart has repeatedly challenged hierarchy.