Carlo Ancelotti finds himself at a familiar juncture, staring down the barrel of expectation, where only silverware can silence the noise at Real Madrid.
Real Madrid were a dominant force last season under Carlo Ancelotti. They won the La Liga title without much difficulty and once again went on an incredible run to lift the UEFA Champions League. While Los Blancos did start the 2024/25 season in fine fashion by winning the UEFA Super Cup against Atalanta, they have not been consistent enough.
Not only have the Merengues faltered in most of their big games, but they have also dropped points against teams they would usually dispatch without trouble. The only positive for them is that they are alive in all competitions as we gear up for the final stretch of the season.
The team in white added Kylian Mbappe to their ranks with hopes of further strengthening their team. While he has contributed towards 36 goals so far and has been their standout performer in attack, the departure of Toni Kroos seems to have had a bigger impact on the team.
Without the German midfield genius, Los Blancos have not been able to control the tempo of the game. They lack creativity in the centre of the park. On top of that, the lack of depth at the back has been exposed yet again, as Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal both suffered serious knee injuries quite early in the season.
Carvajal’s absence has forced Ancelotti to use Federico Valverde at right-back, with Lucas Vázquez struggling to cope against top-tier wingers. Without the South American in the midfield, even Jude Bellingham has not been able to help Real Madrid control the game.
In simple terms, Real Madrid have not had the same level of control they enjoyed last season. They have been far too easy to break down, and even having one of the world’s best goalkeepers, Thibaut Courtois, has not been enough to cover up the cracks.
While the season has not gone entirely according to plan, there is still a chance for Real Madrid and Carlo Ancelotti to turn things around in the final stretch. Despite being one of the most decorated managers in world football and having led the club to both the Champions League and La Liga titles just last season, the demands at Real Madrid are relentless. At this club, winning a major trophy is not a bonus, it is a requirement. Anything less, and Ancelotti’s future could hang in the balance.
All or nothing in the weeks ahead
Three out of Real Madrid’s next six fixtures might have a massive say on not just their campaign but also Ancelotti’s future at the club. A season-defining run lies ahead, with the Champions League quarter-final second leg against Arsenal at the Bernabeu, a high-stakes Clasico in La Liga, and the Copa del Rey final, also against Barcelona, all set to shape Real Madrid’s fate.
Champions League campaign
Real Madrid have had one of their worst Champions League campaign ever. The 3-0 defeat at the hands of Arsenal in the first leg of the quarter-finals was their fifth defeat in this season’s UEFA Champions League campaign.
They have now matched their worst-ever Champions League campaign, equalling the record set back in the 2000/01 season. The team in white lost 1-0 to LOSC Lille away, 3-1 at home to AC Milan, and 2-0 to Liverpool away during the league phase.
While the Merengues did go past Atletico Madrid in the round of 16, they lost the second leg 1-0 at home and then suffered the 3-0 thrashing at the hands of Arsenal away from home. Now, the defending champions have a massive task at hand to save their Champions League campaign, they will have to script an incredible comeback to stay alive in the competition.
Los Blancos have a history of scripting incredible comebacks at the Bernabeu in the Champions League. But even for them, coming from 3 goals behind won’t be easy. While the team in white certainly have the firepower to score three goals, the biggest question is whether they can keep a clean sheet, given their less-than-impressive defensive record.
Courtois has started 11 UEFA Champions League games, while Andriy Lunin has taken charge in two. They have conceded a total of 20 goals and have only kept one clean sheet. While Courtois was sensational in the first leg against Arsenal, they still ended up conceding thrice.
Even if the Belgian has the game of his life, he will still need significant support from the backline. Meanwhile, Ancelotti will have to make some massive calls ahead of the second leg on Wednesday night. It will be interesting to see if they go ahead with Valverde and David Alaba as full-backs for a defensive approach or start with Lucas Vazquez and Fran Garcia and go all-out attack.
The two Clasicos
Real Madrid have already faced arch-rivals Barcelona twice this season and have been comprehensively beaten on both occasions. The first meeting took place in La Liga, where the Catalan giants smashed the team in white 4-0 in their own backyard.
The second meeting between the two teams happened in the final of the Spanish Super Cup at the King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Saudi Arabia. Yet again, Hansi Flick’s team managed to go past Ancelotti’s team without much difficulty, they won 5-2 on the night.
Copa del Rey Final
On April 26, Barcelona will once again square up against Los Blancos. This time, the two teams will face each other for the Copa del Rey title. With Real Madrid playing catch-up in both La Liga and the Champions League, the Copa del Rey appears to be their only realistic shot at silverware this season.
While a turnaround in La Liga or the Champions League remains possible, it is far easier said than done. The Copa del Rey presents a more straightforward path, but even that hinges on overcoming Barcelona. And given their struggles against Hansi Flick’s side this season, even that task feels increasingly out of reach.
Ancelotti’s side have struggled defensively, while Barcelona boast one of the most dangerous attacks in world football, with Raphinha and Lamine Yamal operating on the flanks and Robert Lewandowski spearheading the frontline. The trio have been in blistering form all season, and stopping them will be a monumental task, one that Madrid have failed to accomplish so far.
La Liga title
Even if they do go past the Catalan giants in the Copa del Rey, Real Madrid will have to square up against Hansi Flick’s team once again in May for the La Liga title-deciding Clasico. Defeats to Real Betis and Valencia over the last few weeks have already complicated Los Blancos’ chances of defending the league title.
Barcelona were in complete control of the title race in the first half of the season, but a dip in form did open the doors for the rivals. Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid both had the opportunity to cement their spot at the top of the table, but neither of them were consistent enough.
Slowly, Flick’s team have regained control, and they have a four-point lead over second-placed Real Madrid. The team in white needs to ensure they win every league game for the Clasico to have some relevance. Even after a red card to Kylian Mbappe and Ancelotti on the stands because of suspension, Los Blancos somehow secured a 1-0 win over Deportivo Alaves last time out.
Any further slip-ups in the league could hand Flick’s side the breathing room they need to pull away. If they do win their games against Athletic Club, Getafe and Celta Vigo, then the team in white can revive the title race by defeating Barcelona in the final Clasico of the season.
To stay alive in the Champions League, they will need to pull off something extraordinary. To lift the Copa del Rey, they must overcome a Barcelona side that has outclassed them twice already. And to revive the La Liga title race, they will have to be near-perfect, winning every remaining league fixture and hoping for a slip from their rivals.
The next six fixtures will pretty much define Real Madrid’s season, and it could have a massive say on Ancelotti’s future at the club. Even if they somehow do lift the Copa del Rey title, failing to win the league and the UEFA Champions League could cost the Italian his job. If they do sack the five-time Champions League-winning coach, Xabi Alonso is the favourite to take his place in the team.
