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Ange Postecoglou at Tottenham: Sustained transformation or false dawn?

October 14, 2023 10:31 pm
Reading Time: 12 mins read
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The Ange Postecoglou revolution at Tottenham has yet to show signs of sustainability, as the squad needs depth to become a challenger.

It is not uncommon for a manager at a club to get a chant of his own. Tottenham fans were in full volume when signing about their Australian manager Ange Postecoglou at the home stadium following their controversial win over Liverpool a few weeks ago.

For example, it has taken Mikel Arteta nearly two and a half years to see his name sung by Arsenal fans, with the chant now a common sight at the Emirates and away from home. As for Postecoglou, he has taken less than ten Premier League games to endear himself to the North London fan base while also somewhat gaining the respect of other club supporters.

The Australian tactician was not Daniel Levy’s first choice to replace Antonio Conte during the summer. Feyenoord’s title-winning manager, Arne Slot, was the man the Spurs chairman wanted. But hiring Postecoglou has been a stellar decision, and the results are there to see.

The Liverpool performance, despite the win, cast doubts over Tottenham’s credentials. But beyond that, they have been rather good in the Premier League. Their no-show in European competition is also helping their cause, and there is growing optimism around North London that this could be their season to win something finally, maybe even the Premier League.

Tottenham and Arsenal are the two remaining unbeaten sides in the Premier League. The two teams are level on points at the summit, with Spurs occupying the top spot owing to their superior goals-scored record. Some may argue that Spurs have yet to face teams of a higher calibre, barring Liverpool and the Gunners. But the team has shown plenty of changes and improvement along the way.

Sitting in that position has some sections of the fan base feeling invincible this season. But things are not as simple as they appear. Tottenham have a tough road ahead, but they have something in their hands to change their ‘Spursy’ perception this season.

The Carabao Cup was the one major tournament where they could have won a trophy, and they are out of it. FA Cup remains another possibility, but Postecoiglou could wait for more games before declaring his team as a potential title contender.

They are still far off from being named challengers, but they could threaten Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool. Yet, with the performances so far, the Tottenham ranks have a sense of optimism, and the coming period will show us where they stand.

We shall look into some aspects of their season regarding what Postecoglou has changed with this side. We should also look at the pragmatic side of things with their performances and whether this whole ‘sitting on top of the league’ is a sustained transformation or another false dawn.

New players have brought fresh dynamics for Postecoglou

The big talking point is the Australian’s stern plan for the club. After spending ample time with the Tottenham squad during their pre-season, away from the glamour of the US, Ange Postecoglou was able to pinpoint their strengths more than their deficiencies. This factor has been key, as Spurs have had familiar problems. But their new style of play has masked those.

Coming away from a rigid style under Conte that felt to have crept into their DNA, Postecoglou has taken less time in transforming their methods. Transfers have surely helped his cause, with the manager able to bring some new energy with summer signings and those that needed changes in their dynamics of play.

Tottenham’s defence appears brand new, with only Cristian Romero surviving Postecoglou’s chop and change. The new season has seen three new firm starters in the backline, including their new Italian goalkeeper, Guglielmo Vicario, left-back Destiny Udogie and central defender Micky van de Ven.

Pedro Porro, who arrived in January, had shown signs last season that he could not play as right-back. He was signed to become Conte’s new right-wing back, a role he was all too familiar with while playing with Sporting CP. Yet, the Spaniard has been one of their better performers and is now showing signs that he can adapt to new roles.

Furthermore, in midfield, Postecoglou was open to changing the double pivot altogether, restoring Yves Bissouma in the chief anchor role. Pape Matar Sarr has come out ahead of Oliver Skipp to take that place alongside the Malian. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, an important player under Conte, has no place in the Australian’s plans and could depart in January.

Similarly, in the attack, he supported the club in signing James Maddison, who has stitched together their attacking side of things. The loss of Harry Kane could now appear like a blessing in disguise, as Tottenham are playing more fluid football without the England captain.

One of Postecoglou’s key transformations has been Son Heung-min, who has taken over the central striker role. There were questions about Tottenham’s intent to replace Kane, but the Australian has answered by playing the South Korean in the position.

Overall, Postecoglou has a decent squad and a good starting eleven. But still, there needs to be more depth, especially at the back, something he might address during the January window with Victor Nelsson, one of his targets to join the central defence.

The depth seems fine in the attack, but the midfield is where there are multiple questions. With the AFCON set to commence, Postecoglou may have to do without Sarr and Bissouma, which could pose a problem, considering Hojbjerg could also leave. That topic is a discussion for another day, but they look solid across the pitch now.

How has Postecoglou transformed Tottenham’s style?

From being a pragmatic side under Antonio Conte, Ange Postecoglou has transformed this Tottenham side into an ultra-technical team that dominates games with the ball. They also have the physical capacity to dominate games without the ball through pressing.

They build in a 2-3 shape and attack with five in the last line. Postecoglou’s positional play, fluid rigidity, dynamics, balance, and everything look quite special for now. Spurs have also mastered the off-ball man-to-man press, which has made them a solid team in all phases.

That draw against Arsenal showed Spurs are no longer the team to be bullied by certain teams, which became a common sight last season. One of the main reasons for their rise is their level of controlling games, which can be related to their new-found physicality, added height and mobility in the backline.

The full-backs play inverted roles when needed, and Pedro Porro, in particular, has developed his game differently. The whole game centres around finding space and then exploiting it, something Postecoglou has coached them well for.

Their midfield shape has changed from the rigid double pivot, facilitating the protection of the backline and adding nothing to the front line. However, Yves Bissouma has been tasked with holding the line and allowing James Maddison (left) and Pape Matar Sarr (right) to join in with the front three.

Sarr mostly targets turnovers, and with Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski around, those attackers can make chances out of loose balls that the midfielder tends to win. Their defensive numbers have also been great and balance the act with the attacking side, which has seen plenty of goals scored.

Overall, Spurs look extremely technical and solid with this starting eleven. However, if they start losing players in some positions, the backup options may provide different stability, which could cast doubts on their title challenge.

Are Tottenham living a dream, or is it another false dawn?

Let’s start with some numbers with Spurs fans all gassed up about the prospect of their chances this season. These defensive stats below show Tottenham defenders in a different light compared to other top-four teams.

For starters, if Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven have made 49 tackles and 114 recoveries, aren’t they facing too many attacking moments? The pair have also contested nearly double the number of duels compared to Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City, which again calls into question whether Spurs as a team have improved defensively.

It sheds light on Yves Bissouma and his role in protecting this defence. Secondly, defensive numbers are different from attacking stats. In the case of the latter, the more the numbers, the better the team is playing, although at the back, that’s not the same.

Defensive numbers indicate how teams play rather than how well and do not provide a qualitative signal of how well a specific backline has performed. Overall, those stats from above are murky at best and do not show whether Romero/van de Ven have been good or bad.

For instance, Spurs are 8th in shots allowed, 7th in xG allowed, 7th in passes into the box allowed, and 4th in progressive passes allowed. That is more a picture of an above-average defence than elite. Compared to the graphic above, Arsenal’s William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes have posted terrible numbers for the Spurs pair. Still, the Gunners have allowed the fewest shots on target in the league.

Moreover, their opponents have included four of the bottom five teams, which paints a rather stale picture of their defensive work. Overall, Spurs’s defensive numbers show they are in the above-average territory and have plenty of work to do before they can consider entering the elite category. Arsenal and Manchester City are currently closest to the latter, with Newcastle United near that zone last season.

Spurs have done exceedingly well in the final third and have goals to show for their cause. However, the big problem with Tottenham is whether they can sustain a proper title challenge from this moment. Their fans have seen Spurs go from top dogs to being ‘Spursy’, and that may still happen.

As we mentioned, they will lose their two key midfielders to the AFCON later, which may affect their position on the table. So far, they have had an unbeaten start, but there are doubts whether they can sustain it for long.

Are Spurs title contenders?

No, Tottenham are well below the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City to mount a sustained challenge for the title. They have been one of the best teams, but no team can maintain a long run with the same starting eleven.

Depth is the real problem at Tottenham, and while they might have the advantage of not playing European competitions, they will fall apart soon. Arsenal and Manchester City also know what a title challenge needs regarding squad depth, something Tottenham cannot solve even in the January window.

There are far too many players that do not suit Postecoglou’s style. Their defensive depth also has to be questioned at some stage, as beyond Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven, they need someone to rely on to provide the same level of quality.

One must praise their efforts to get rid of dead wood during the summer. But the need for reinforcements, especially to shore up the backline, would surely bite them. At best, Spurs are fit enough to finish in the top four, and that too will depend on the form of other sides like Newcastle United, Manchester United and even Chelsea.

Hence, Tottenham fans must keep celebrating their current position, but overdoing it will lead to heartbreak later in the season when this team falls apart. Not that Postecoglou does not have the character to take this team past the finishing line, but the road is too difficult with the current quality at his disposal.

While they remain at the summit, their real character test will come when facing a big team without some key players. That kind of situation is for all other teams, and no team has ever gone a whole season with the same set of players always ready to fight. Hence, Postecoglou’s team may look strong for now, but there’s no chance they will fight for the title this season, meaning challenging for the top four should be their realistic aim.

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