Turkiye and Italy meet in Bursa with both sides already under pressure after opening-matchday defeats, and there is a lot riding on the game for Vincenzo Montella and Roberto Mancini.
Turkiye’s first outing in the section was a reminder that they can compete with bigger sides, even if the points did not follow. They sat in well against France for long stretches and made things awkward before Kylian Mbappe found the breakthrough, and the performance was respectable enough to leave some encouragement for Vincenzo Montella.
The problem, though, was that Turkiye did not quite turn that resilience into enough attacking threat when it mattered. They tested Mike Maignan a few times, but once Ugurcan Cakir was sent off after the VAR review, the night became much harder to manage, and the momentum slipped away, although there was only a little time left between the sending-off and the final whistle.
Italy’s return under Roberto Mancini could hardly have gone much worse, with Belgium beating them 2-0 in Rome. The result was deserved, and the manner of it was even more worrying, as Italy looked disconnected and short of rhythm for long spells against a side that simply appeared better organised.
That kind of opening will have strengthened the feeling that this is still a team in transition. There were a few fresh faces in the squad and a few signs of the rebuild Mancini wants to carry out, but the overall display suggested the work is still at a very early stage.
Team News & Tactics
Turkiye
Vincenzo Montella must continue to select his strongest lineup despite missing a host of key stars for this international break. Chief among those are Hakan Calhanoglu, Mert Muldur, Orkun Kokcu, and Kenan Yildiz, as none of them are expected to feature against Italy or afterwards. The additional problem is in goal, as first-choice goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir’s dismissal against France will see him miss this game through suspension.
Altay Bayindir is in line to replace Cakir between the posts, while Montella is likely to continue with a back three of Zeki Celik, Abdulkerim Bardakci, and Merih Demiral. Eren Elmali and Ferdi Kadioglu will occupy the wing-back roles for Turkiye, with Salih Ozcan and Ismail Yuksek in central midfield.
Baris Alper Yilmaz will continue to lead the line, while Can Uzun will be deployed alongside Arda Guler in the most advanced attacking roles, with the latter having much more responsibility to providing a creative impetus in the attacking third.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Bayindir; Celik, Bardakci, Demiral; Elmali, Ozcan, Yuksek, Kadioglu; Guler, Uzun; Yilmaz
Italy
Roberto Mancini also has his fair share of injury-enforced absentees, with as many as five players missing from action. Those include Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante, Jeff Ekhator, Matteo Dagasso, and Filippo Mane.
Beyond that, Italy’s head coach is likely to deploy a similar team against Turkiye, meaning he could use the same back four but make some changes in midfield. Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Gianluca Mancini, Diego Coppola, and Riccardo Calafiori will keep their spots alongside goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma.
There could be a change in midfield, as the in-form Davide Frattesi could replace Alessandro Romano in the centre of the park, providing more experience and stability in the central areas due to his adept reading of the game. Sandro Tonali and Nicolo Barella are expected to keep their places, while Mancini will retain the same front three, with Francesco Pio Esposito leading the line.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Coppola, Calafiori; Barella, Frattesi, Tonali; Kean, Esposito, Cambiaghi
Key Stats
- Italy are unbeaten against Turkiye in their last six meetings, including friendlies.
- Three of those six games have ended in a draw.
- Turkiye have scored in four of the last six games against Italy, including friendlies.
- Turkiye have lost three of their last four international games, failing to score in each of those defeats.
Player to Watch
Davide Frattesi
The idea of bringing Frattesi back into the lineup at the expense of Alessandro Romano might make sense for Roberto Mancini, with the Lazio star in superb goalscoring form since the season began. Italy lacked cutting edge against Belgium in their most recent game, and adding someone who can get into the box and chip in with goals should be the key change for this match.
Frattesi has been in superb form since leaving Inter Milan in the summer, and he could bring that same influence to the national side. In what is expected to be a key game for both teams, Mancini must free up players like Frattesi in a bid to secure the first win of his latest spell as Italy manager.
Prediction
Turkiye 1-2 Italy
Turkiye did put in a resilient performance against an attack-minded France side, but their inability to do anything in the attacking third might weigh heavily on Vincenzo Montella’s mind. Against an otherwise solid defensive side like Italy, they might struggle even further.
Italy are hungry to get a win on the board and kickstart the Mancini era, and they might be slight favourites against Turkiye. They could tweak a few things to create more fluidity in the attacking third, and that might be enough against a side with obvious weaknesses when it comes to opening up defences.
