Eddie Howe will hope the second leg of the play-off round is a mere formality following Newcastle United’s big result in the reverse leg against Qarabag FK.
Newcastle United have been through a difficult period in their season following a raft of injuries to their key stars and the fixture list piling up, with the next tie with Qarabag coming on Tuesday. All Eddie Howe would have asked for is a little break in games to help recover some ideas and fitness.
The English tactician could get his wish this midweek, even though Newcastle United will play the second leg of their Champions League play-off. Howe could potentially rest most of his key stars and use fringe players in need of minutes under their belt, as Newcastle United took a massive 6-1 lead in this tie thanks to their first-leg performance.
Anthony Gordon became Newcastle United’s highest goalscorer in the UEFA Champions League, owing to the four goals he scored against Qarabag in the first leg. With one foot in the Round of 16, Howe will probably treat this second leg as a mere formality and look to recuperate ahead of their weekend clash in the Premier League against Everton.
Qarabag have found themselves in an impossible position following their heavy loss to Newcastle United in the first leg. Hence, it is plausible that the Azerbaijani side come here for the sake of pride and put in a performance that makes their fans back home proud.
They have given a good account of themselves following successes over Benfica and a hard-fought draw with Chelsea. Gurban Gurbanov will want to see his side play with their hearts, although from a results point of view, there is nothing to gain, especially considering Qarabag have lost nine and drawn once in their ten games against English opposition in Europe.
Team News & Tactics
Newcastle United
Malick Thiaw will be suspended for this clash, as he must serve a one-match ban after his yellow card in the first leg against Qarabag FK. However, Eddie Howe will not be bothered by the German defender’s absence, as there was a chance the manager would have rested him anyway.
Thiaw joins skipper Bruno Guimaraes, Emil Krafth, Fabian Schar, Tino Livramento, and Lewis Miley on the sidelines. Howe will hope to have Sven Botman and Yoane Wissa back for this one after the pair missed the defeat at the weekend, away to Manchester City.
Howe can potentially consider bringing in some youth players and giving them chances, but the stakes are so high that he might not go in that direction. One player who could make the team is Alex Murphy, who can play centrally despite being a left-back.
Should Howe have Botman ready, he could pair the Dutchman with Dan Burn, while Alex Murphy can play in the full-back role. Otherwise, the latter can occupy a central role, with Lewis Hall keeping his place out wide. With many injuries affecting rotations, Howe may end up playing some fringe players while keeping the line-up more or less familiar.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Ramsdale; Trippier, Burn, Alex Murphy, Hall; Joelinton, Tonali, Ramsey; Jacob Murphy, Woltemade, Barnes
Qarabag FK
Meanwhile, visitors Qarabag are also missing some key personnel, including key defender Bahlul Mustafazade, who was taken off early in the first leg. Gurban Gurbanov has a few options to replace him, including right-back Dani Holt, as well as Samy Mmaee and Badavi Huseynov.
The latter pair are more central options. The manager is likely to prefer his standard 4-2-3-1 shape, with Abdellah Zoubir key to his plans, with the winger offering plenty of ball-carrying capability, while Camilo Duran will lead the line for Qarabag against Newcastle United.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Kochalski; Silva, Huseynov, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Bicalho, Jankovic; Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir; Duran
Key Stats
- Newcastle United have won each of their last three UEFA Champions League home games without conceding a goal.
- Newcastle United have scored in every Champions League game this season.
- Qarabag have conceded six goals in their last two Champions League games, and 27 overall in nine this season.
- Qarabag are without a win in ten European games against English opponents, losing nine of those.
- Anthony Gordon has scored ten goals for Newcastle in the UEFA Champions League this season; the only players with more goals for an English club in a single edition in the European Cup/Champions League are Ruud van Nistelrooy (12 for Manchester United in 2002/03) and Erling Haaland (12 for Manchester City in 2022/23).
Player to Watch
Nick Woltemade
Players often have a topsy-turvy nature to their individual form, and over the last few weeks, Woltemade has come under scrutiny for his lack of output in this Newcastle United side. The bigger problem is the dip in the form of Premier League-experienced striker Yoane Wissa, but the German international is the one under the spotlight.
With the tie against Qarabag almost in the bag, Newcastle United can play this one without any real pressure, and so can Woltemade. The German attacker really needs a game where he can express his talent to the fullest, and this might be the one to get his confidence back ahead of the crucial last part of the season.
Prediction
Newcastle United 4-0 Qarabag FK
Qarabag have nothing more to lose in this second leg, as the damage was already done in the reverse fixture in Azerbaijan. They might come with the mentality of playing for pride, but given how strong the Magpies have been on home soil over the last three games at least, there is no chance Qarabag will take anything from here.
Newcastle United have the chance to heavily rotate their pack, but given the injuries to key stars, Eddie Howe might be unable to do so fully. Hence, with the quality of the squad intact and after taking confidence from their first-leg performance, Newcastle United are expected to hand Qarabag another lesson at St. James’ Park in this second leg.
