Arsenal may not be in a free-scoring form at the moment, but that should not be a source of worry for their Premier League title credentials
Arsenal are still finding ways to win, but the narrow scorelines have made their attack feel more fragile than the results suggest. The underlying numbers point more towards a finishing dip than a broken chance-creation machine, which is why the “crisis” talk looks premature
Arsenal: Winning, but not free-scoring
Arsenal went into Christmas on top of the Premier League again, sealed by a 1-0 win at Everton, and it is the fifth time they have led the table on December 25. That context matters: they are collecting points even when the attack is not in full flow, which is often what champions do in the messy middle months.
Their own recent pattern, winning while leaving goals on the table, naturally invites the question of whether this is a structural issue or simply a spell of misfiring.
Creation vs conversion
One simple way to sanity-check “goal problems” is to separate chance volume from finishing outcomes, and xG helps with that because it estimates chance quality regardless of whether the shot goes in. Arsenal’s league attack is still producing around 1.69 expected goals per game this season, which is the profile of a high-level chance-creating side rather than a team surviving on scraps.
When real goals lag behind that kind of process, it usually points to variance (streaky finishing, keepers having hot weeks, a few shots clipping posts) more than a sudden collapse in attacking structure.
Title challenge pressure
Being top at Christmas is a nice headline, not a trophy, but it does frame the Premier League title conversation: Arsenal have already banked enough results to put themselves in the race from the front. Historically, the Christmas leaders have gone on to win the Premier League title in 17 of the league’s 33 full seasons. So, the position is meaningful, just not definitive.
The bigger sustainability question is whether Arsenal can keep creating chances at their current rate while tightening the small details that turn “one-goal wins” into “put it to bed by 70 minutes.”
Christmas stat context
The “Arsenal have never won it when top at Christmas” line is real, but it is descriptive rather than predictive, especially because Arsenal’s actual title-winning seasons have often been built on spring surges from behind.
The Premier League’s own Christmas-leaders breakdown underlines the same theme: Arsenal have been top on Christmas Day multiple times in the Premier League era and failed to convert those leads, including twice under Mikel Arteta when they were later overtaken by Manchester City. That history can raise nerves, but it does not explain what happens next; squad health, finishing swings, and the run-in schedule do.
Conclusion
Arsenal’s recent run has felt like a team winning with the handbrake slightly on, and that is why the goals conversation has grown louder even as the points keep coming. But the clearest read is that this is more “patch” than “problem”: their process still produces a strong stream of chances, with xG capturing the quality of what they create from open play moves and set-piece situations, and Arsenal are generating about 1.69 expected goals per game in the league this season.
When that level of chance quality is in place, short-term under-finishing is usually noise—finishing runs cold, keepers hit peak form, and a couple of tight games swing on fine margins—rather than proof that the attack has run out of ideas.
The “top at Christmas” curse makes for good cope, and Arsenal have indeed failed to lift the trophy in previous seasons when leading at this point, but Premier League history shows Christmas leaders win it only a little more than half the time anyway. So, the date itself is not destiny. If Arsenal keep creating at this rate, the goals should follow, and if they do, the title challenge will look far more normal than ominous.
