Atletico Baleares vs Atletico Madrid: Preview and Prediction

Atletico Baleares will face an uphill task when they square off against Atletico Madrid in the Copa Del Rey Round of 32 fixture on Wednesday.

Atletico Madrid begin their Copa del Rey campaign in earnest on Wednesday night as they travel to face CD Atletico Baleares in the round of 32, knowing that anything less than progression would rank among the competition’s biggest shocks. For the hosts, however, this fixture represents a rare opportunity to test themselves against one of Spain’s elite and add another memorable chapter to their cup history.

Atletico Baleares may now be far removed from the professional tiers of Spanish football, but the club’s pedigree in the Copa del Rey should not be underestimated. The Balearic side currently compete in Spain’s fourth tier and arrive at this tie following a 3-1 league defeat to Terrassa, a result that nevertheless leaves them second in the standings and comfortably ahead of Barcelona B.

Under Luis Blanco, Baleares have built a reputation for organisation and resilience, traits that have already served them well in this season’s cup run. Their route to the round of 32 has been impressive. Baleares navigated two demanding ties to reach this stage, first overcoming Gimnastic before claiming a notable scalp by edging past La Liga outfit Espanyol 1-0 in the previous round.

That victory underlined their ability to compete in one-off knockout matches and ensured they enter Wednesday’s contest with belief rather than trepidation. Atletico Baleares are no strangers to deep cup runs either, having reached the round of 16 on three previous occasions, most recently in the 2021/22 campaign.

Atletico Madrid, by contrast, arrive with momentum and expectation. Diego Simeone’s side come into the tie on the back of a 2-1 La Liga victory over Valencia, a result that has them sitting fourth in the league with 34 points from 17 matches, albeit nine adrift of leaders Barcelona.

Across all competitions, the Colchoneros have been in formidable form, winning nine of their last 11 games, a run that includes a dramatic 3-2 Champions League victory over PSV Eindhoven earlier this month.While La Liga and the UEFA Champions League remain Los Rojiblancos’ primary focus, the Copa del Rey still holds significant value at the Metropolitano.

Atletico Madrid are the fourth-most successful club in the competition’s history, lifting the trophy on 10 occasions, with their most recent triumph coming in the 2012/13 season. Simeone is likely to rotate his squad to manage workload, but the depth and experience available should still make Atlético overwhelming favourites.

That said, Atletico Madrid will be mindful of Atletico Baleares’s giant-killing credentials. Espanyol’s elimination serves as a timely reminder of the dangers that accompany these early-round cup fixtures, particularly away from home.

Complacency would be the only real threat to Simeone’s men, who must balance professionalism with intensity to avoid being drawn into an uncomfortable contest. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.

Team News & Tactics

Atletico Baleares

Atlético Baleares approach Wednesday night’s Copa del Rey tie in good health, with no injury or suspension concerns reported ahead of the visit of Atletico Madrid. Luis Blanco therefore has a full squad at his disposal, an important advantage for a side preparing to face elite opposition.

The absence of fitness issues allows Baleares to field their strongest available lineup and maintain the cohesion that has underpinned their impressive cup run so far. Much of the home team’s attacking hope rests on the form of Jaume Tovar, who has enjoyed an outstanding campaign in front of goal.

The 27-year-old forward has scored 13 times in 17 appearances across all competitions and remains the focal point of the home side’s attack. Supporting him in advanced areas is Jofre Cherta, who has contributed two goals and one assist this season and offers creativity and energy between the lines. Their ability to maximise limited opportunities will be central to Baleares’s ambitions of causing another upset.

From a tactical perspective, Baleares are expected to adopt a compact 5-3-2 formation designed to frustrate Atletico Madrid and limit space in central areas. Julian Rivas is set to start in goal, protected by a back five that prioritises defensive solidity. The defensive line should feature Alejandro Perez and Victor Morillo operating as wing-backs on the right and left respectively, with Ulrich Taffertshofer, Guillem Castell and Jaume Pol positioned centrally to deal with aerial threats and physical duels.

In midfield, Gerardo Bonet is expected to anchor the centre, providing defensive cover and ball recovery, while Miguelito and Jofre Cherta are likely to operate slightly higher within the midfield trio, tasked with linking play and supporting the forwards on the break. Up front, Tovar should partner Axel Bejarano, with the pair combining physical presence and movement as Baleares look to exploit transitions and set-piece situations.

Probable Lineup (5-3-2): Rivas; Perez, Taffertshofer, Castell, Pol, Morillo; Miguelito, Bonet, Cherta; Tovar, Bejarano

Atletico Baleares vs Atletico Madrid: Preview and Prediction.

Atletico Madrid

Atlético Madrid head into this fixture managing a small but significant list of absentees that will influence Diego Simeone’s rotation plans. Alex Baena, Jose Gimenez, and Marcos Llorente were all unavailable for the recent clash with Valencia and remain sidelined, ruling them out once again.

Their absences affect multiple areas of the pitch, particularly defensive stability and midfield dynamism. There are no suspension issues for Atletico Madrid, but Simeone is expected to rotate his squad heavily as he balances domestic and continental commitments. Several senior figures are set to return to the starting XI as part of those changes.

Clement Lenglet and Robin Le Normand are expected to re-enter the defensive unit, while Javi Galan should provide a natural left-sided option at full-back. In midfield, Johnny Cardoso is likely to come into the side to add control and physical presence. Antoine Griezmann is also expected to start after being rested previously, offering leadership and creativity in the attacking line.

Julian Alvarez, by contrast, is likely to be given a breather, with Alexander Sorloth in contention to lead the attack after scoring five goals already this season. From a tactical perspective, Atletico Madrid are expected to line up in a 4-4-2 formation that reflects Simeone’s preference for balance and compactness. Juan Musso should start in goal, offering reliability behind a reshaped defence.

The back four is likely to feature Nahuel Molina at right-back, with Clement Lenglet and Robin Le Normand forming the central defensive partnership. Javi Galan is expected to operate at left-back, providing width and recovery pace. In midfield, Giuliano Simeone is set to start on the right flank, tasked with energy, pressing and direct running.

Johnny Cardoso should partner Pablo Barrios in central midfield, combining ball-winning with progressive passing. On the left side, Thiago Almada is expected to offer creativity and link play between midfield and attack on the left flank. Up front, Antoine Griezmann should operate as a withdrawn forward, supporting Sorloth, who is likely to lead the line as the primary goal threat.

Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Musso; Molina, Lenglet, Le Normand, Galan; Simeone, Cardoso, Barrios, Almada; Griezmann, Sorloth

Atletico Baleares vs Atletico Madrid: Preview and Prediction.

Key Stats

  • Atletico Madrid have lost just one of their last 15 matches in all competitions, underlining their consistency despite frequent squad rotation.
  • Diego Simeonees side have kept a clean sheet in over half of their matches this season, continuing their reputation as one of Europe’s most defensively disciplined teams.
  • Atletico Madrid have won their last four home games without conceding a goal, highlighting their control and game management in familiar surroundings.
  • Alexander Sorloth has already scored five goals this season, averaging a goal involvement roughly every 120 minutes when starting.
  • Atletico Madrid have conceded fewer than one goal per game across all competitions this campaign, ranking among the top defensive units in La Liga.

Player to Watch

Alexander Sorloth

Sorloth is likely to play a central role for Atletico Madrid, especially with Diego Simeone expected to rotate his attacking options. The Norwegian forward offers a contrasting profile to Julián Alvarez, providing raw physicality, aerial dominance, and a direct presence in the penalty area, qualities that suit Atlético’s more pragmatic approach in rotated line-ups.

Already on five goals this season, Sorloth has shown a knack for making the most of limited opportunities, particularly when Atlético look to attack through crosses or early deliveries. His ability to pin defenders, win duels, and bring teammates into play allows Griezmann and the midfield runners to operate in advanced pockets.

If Atletico Madrid are to control the match efficiently rather than overwhelm their opponent with possession, Sorloth’s hold-up play and finishing could be the defining factor.

Prediction

Atlético Baleares 0-3 Atlético Madrid

With rotation expected but core experience still present, Atletico Madrid should control proceedings through defensive organisation and efficiency in the final third. Alexander Sorloth’s physical presence and finishing give Diego Simeone’s side a clear edge, and a professional performance without conceding looks the most likely outcome.

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