Borussia Dortmund vs LOSC Lille: Preview and Prediction

Borussia Dortmund will take on LOSC Lille in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League round of 16 tie at the Westfalenstadion.

Borussia Dortmund and LOSC Lille will go head-to-head in the first leg of their Champions League Last 16 showdown at Signal Iduna Park on Tuesday night. With a potential quarter-final clash against Barcelona on the horizon, both sides will be eager to seize the advantage in this crucial tie.

Dortmund, last season’s beaten finalists, secured their place in the knockout rounds after overcoming Sporting CP in the playoffs. A dominant 3-0 win in the first leg put them in firm control, allowing them to cruise through with a goalless draw in the return fixture. Now into the round of 16 for the sixth time in seven seasons, the Black and Yellows have found solace in European competition amid a turbulent Bundesliga campaign.

Under Niko Kovac’s leadership, Dortmund are beginning to rediscover their rhythm domestically. A ruthless 6-0 demolition of Union Berlin was followed by a routine 2-0 victory over St. Pauli on Saturday, with Serhou Guirassy – the Champions League’s top scorer this season with 10 goals – once again proving decisive.

Karim Adeyemi added to the tally as Borussia Dortmund secured back-to-back Bundesliga wins for the first time this season. However, despite their recent resurgence, they remain adrift in the domestic standings, making a deep run in Europe their best chance of securing a UEFA Champions League spot for next season.

Standing in their way is a Lille side determined to rewrite history. Les Dogues have never progressed beyond this stage of the competition, but their campaign so far suggests they are ready to challenge the odds. After navigating the qualifying rounds, they finished seventh in the 36-team league phase, stunning both Madrid clubs and dismantling Feyenoord 6-1 along the way. Bruno Genesio’s men boasted the most clinical attack in the league phase, converting 22.7% of their chances – a tournament-best record.

However, Lille suffered a reality check over the weekend, falling to a humbling 4-1 defeat against Paris Saint-Germain. A late goal from Jonathan David extended their scoring streak to 11 matches, but they will need to regroup quickly ahead of their visit to Dortmund, where their opponents have won only twice in their last nine home matches across all competitions.

This fixture marks the first meeting between these two clubs in over two decades, with their only previous encounter coming in the 2001/02 UEFA Cup round of 16. On that occasion, Dortmund advanced on away goals after a 1-1 aggregate draw. With history set to be made, both sides will be desperate to claim an edge heading into the second leg. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Borussia Dortmund

The home side will enter the first leg of their UEFA Champions League clash with Lille with a largely fit squad. However, they will have to do without Felix Nmecha, who remains sidelined with a knee injury, and Filippo Mane, who is recovering from a muscle issue. Right-back Julian Ryerson is also a doubt after missing the weekend’s win over St Pauli due to illness.

Yan Couto deputised well in Ryerson’s absence and could retain his spot if the latter is not deemed fit enough to start. In midfield, Julian Brandt will be a key figure, as he aims to equal Borussia Dortmund’s all-time record for most assists in a single Champions League campaign. The German playmaker has already set up five goals and needs just one more to match the club record of six, set by Ousmane Dembele in the 2016/17 season.

Borussia Dortmund are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Gregor Kobel as the last line of defense in goal. Yan Couto should continue at right-back, with Emre Can partnering Nico Schlotterbeck at the heart of the defence, and Ramy Bensebaini on the left.

Marcel Sabitzer and Pascal Gross will anchor the midfield, providing a solid base behind an attacking trio of Karim Adeyemi, Julian Brandt, and Jamie Gittens. Leading the line will be the prolific Serhou Guirassy, who will be eager to continue his fine goalscoring form.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Couto, Can, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Sabitzer, Gross; Adeyemi, Brandt, Gittens; Guirassy

Borussia Dortmund vs LOSC Lille: Preview and Prediction.

LOSC Lille

Lille will have an opportunity to make history on Tuesday night, and at the heart of their ambitions will be star forward Jonathan David. The Canadian international, who is set to become a free agent in the summer, needs just one more goal to become Lille’s all-time leading scorer in major European competitions.

David was only introduced as a second-half substitute in the 4-1 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain over the weekend, but he is expected to return to the starting lineup in place of Chuba Akpom. Elsewhere, midfield changes will be necessary, as Nabil Bentaleb is ineligible to feature. Either experienced playmaker Andre Gomes or rising talent Ayyoub Bouaddi will take his place in midfield.

Lille will be without three key players for this match: Tiago Santos, who is sidelined with an ACL injury, Samuel Umtiti, who is nursing a calf problem, and Edon Zhegrova, who is unavailable due to a groin issue. Their absences will require coach Bruno Genesio to make tactical adjustments to maintain balance in both attack and defense.

Lille are likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Lucas Chevalier taking his place in goal. The defensive unit should consist of former Borussia Dortmund man Thomas Meunier at right-back, Bafode Diakite and Alexsandro as the central defensive pairing, and Gabriel Gudmundsson occupying the left-back role.

Benjamin Andre is expected to provide stability in midfield alongside Ayyoub Bouaddi. The attacking midfield trio should feature Hakon Arnar Haraldsson on the right, Angel Gomes in the playmaking role, and Mitchel Bakker on the left. Leading the line will be Jonathan David, who will be looking to make history with another European goal.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Chevalier; Meunier, Diakite, Alexsandro, Gudmundsson; Andre, Bouaddi; Haraldsson, Gomes, Bakker; David

Borussia Dortmund vs LOSC Lille: Preview and Prediction.

Key Stats

  • Borussia Dortmund and Lille will meet for just the third time in European competition. Their only previous encounters came in the last 16 of the UEFA Cup in the 2001/02 season, where both legs ended in draws (1-1 on aggregate), with Dortmund progressing on away goals.

  • Borussia Dortmund have only progressed from one of their previous four knockout stage ties against French teams in European competition. However, their lone success came last season when they eliminated Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals with back-to-back 1-0 wins (2-0 on aggregate).

  • This will be Lille’s first knockout stage match against a German side in European competition since the 2002 UEFA Intertoto Cup final, where they were eliminated by Stuttgart after a 2-1 aggregate defeat (won 1-0 at home, lost 2-0 away).

  • Lille have only won two of their 11 meetings with German sides in European competition (D4, L5). However, one of those victories came in their most recent clash, when they secured a 3-1 away win over Wolfsburg in the UEFA Champions League in December 2021.

  • Borussia Dortmund have lost just one of their last 16 UEFA Champions League home matches (W10 D5), with their only defeat coming against Barcelona in December (2-3). They are also unbeaten in their last five home games in the knockout stages of the competition (W4 D1), keeping clean sheets in four of those.

Player to Watch

Jonathan David

Lille’s attacking hopes will rest on Jonathan David, the Canadian forward who is just one goal away from becoming Les Dogues’ all-time leading scorer in major European competitions. David has been a consistent performer in both Ligue 1 and the UEFA Champions League, using his pace, clinical finishing, and intelligent movement to unsettle defenses.

Despite coming off the bench in Lille’s recent 4-1 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain, he is expected to return to the starting lineup for this crucial Champions League tie. His ability to exploit spaces in transition will be key, especially against a Borussia Dortmund side that has shown defensive vulnerabilities at times this season.

Jonathan David has already delivered in high-pressure moments in Europe this season, and if Lille are to secure a positive result at Signal Iduna Park, he will need to be at his best.

Prediction

Borussia Dortmund 2-1 LOSC Lille

Borussia Dortmund come into this tie with renewed confidence following back-to-back domestic victories, and their experience in the latter stages of the Champions League gives them an edge. With the likes of Serhou Guirassy in red-hot form and a strong home crowd at Signal Iduna Park, they will be eager to take control of the tie before the second leg in France.

Lille, however, have proven themselves as a dangerous attacking force, boasting the highest conversion rate in the league phase of the competition. Their recent 4-1 defeat to PSG exposed some defensive vulnerabilities, but with Jonathan David leading the line, they remain a genuine threat going forward.

While Lille’s sharpness in front of goal means they should find the back of the net, Dortmund’s superior European pedigree and home advantage should see them edge a tightly contested first leg. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for Niko Kovac and his charges.

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