Hellas Verona vs AC Milan: Preview and Prediction

AC Milan will be keen to put points on the board when they take on Hellas Verona on Friday night.

AC Milan travel to Stadio Bentegodi on Friday evening to face Hellas Verona in a crucial Serie A clash. While the Rossoneri aim to revive their pursuit of a top-four finish, Verona will look to build on their recent victory to avoid slipping further toward the relegation zone.

AC Milan’s Serie A campaign has been disappointing, with their title hopes seemingly over before the season’s halfway mark. A goalless draw against Genoa last week left them eighth in the standings, 11 points behind Inter Milan and 13 adrift of league leaders Atalanta BC.

Under pressure coach Paulo Fonseca has seen his side win just six of their first 15 league fixtures – their worst tally at this stage since 2019. Despite an improved defensive record with seven clean sheets in their last 12 matches, Milan have struggled for consistency and balance, often appearing vulnerable on the counterattack or overly cautious in attack.

However, Milan have thrived in knockout competitions, winning four consecutive Champions League matches and progressing to the Coppa Italia quarter-finals. Against Verona, a team they have beaten in their last seven Serie A encounters, nothing short of a win will suffice to boost their top-four hopes.

Hellas Verona sit just outside the relegation zone, thanks to their dramatic 3-2 win over Parma last weekend, which ended a run of four consecutive defeats. Manager Paolo Zanetti has come under immense scrutiny, with his position under threat following the club’s 12th loss of the season in all competitions – a 4-1 defeat to Empoli.

Despite the win at Parma, Verona’s defensive frailties remain a concern, as they have conceded in each of their last 13 Serie A matches. They have also spent the most minutes trailing in the league this season (639), highlighting their tendency to fall behind in games.

That said, Verona’s fans will hope to draw inspiration from their historical reputation as ‘Fatal Verona’ – a nickname earned after derailing Milan’s title bids on two significant occasions in the past. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona will be without several key players for their clash with AC Milan. Juan Cruz and Martin Frese are ruled out due to injury, while Abdou Harroui has suffered a season-ending ACL injury after setting up two goals last weekend.

Daniel Mosquera, who scored a late winner at Parma, leads the Italian top-flight in goals scored as a substitute with four and may earn a rare start. However, he faces competition from Amin Sarr, Dailon Livramento, and Casper Tengstedt. Tengstedt, who was benched last week due to a minor calf issue, is now available for selection.

Hellas Verona are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, aiming to stay defensively compact while providing creativity and pace in attack. Lorenzo Montipo will start in goal, commanding the backline. The three-man defence will feature Pawel Dawidowicz, Diego Coppola, and Daniele Ghilardi, forming a solid defensive unit tasked with containing Milan’s attacking threats.

In midfield, the wing-back roles will be occupied by Jackson Tchatchoua on the right and Darko Lazovic on the left, offering width and defensive support. In central midfield, Ondrej Duda and Reda Belahyane will anchor the team, providing both defensive cover and forward distribution.

In attacking midfield, Tomas Suslov and Casper Tengstedt will operate as creative outlets, linking play and supporting the lone striker. Up front, Amin Sarr is expected to lead the line, using his movement and finishing ability to exploit any lapses in Milan’s defence.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Montipo; Dawidowicz, Coppola, Ghilardi; Tchatchoua, Duda, Belahyane, Lazovic; Suslov, Tengstedt; Sarr

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AC Milan

AC Milan remain severely affected by injuries, with Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Luka Jovic, Ismael Bennacer, and Alessandro Florenzi all sidelined due to various fitness issues. Adding to their woes, Noah Okafor has been ruled out until next month with a calf problem, leaving Milan short of attacking options.

There is uncertainty over the inclusion of Theo Hernandez, Milan’s usual first-choice left-back, who was dropped in favour of 17-year-old Alex Jimenez against Genoa last week. Another teenager, Mattia Liberali, may also lose his place after making his first senior start in that game.

Captain Rafael Leao will lead the charge in attack once again, hoping to add to his modest tally of three Serie A goals this season — all of which have come in away matches.

AC Milan are expected to deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, where Mike Maignan will retain his place in goal, anchoring Milan’s defence. The back four will feature Emerson Royal at right-back, with Matteo Gabbia and Malick Thiaw forming the central defensive partnership. On the left, Alex Jimenez could continue as a stand-in for Theo Hernandez.

In midfield, Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders will provide a combination of defensive cover and forward thrust. The attacking midfield trio will include Samuel Chukwueze on the right wing, Álvaro Morata in the central playmaking role, and Rafael Leao on the left wing. Leading the line will be Tammy Abraham, who will aim to use his physicality and finishing ability to trouble the Verona defence.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson, Gabbia, Thiaw, Jimenez; Fofana, Reijnders; Chukwueze, Morata, Leao; Abraham

Hellas Verona vs AC Milan: Preview and Prediction.

Key Stats

  • AC Milan have won each of their last seven Serie A matches against Hellas Verona. The Rossoneri’s only longer ongoing winning run against a Serie A team is against Siena (nine matches), with the last victory in that streak dating back to May 2013.
  • Hellas Verona have  lost their last five Serie A home games against AC Milan. This equals their number of home defeats against Milan in the previous 11 encounters (W5, D2). Verona have never lost more consecutive home matches to a single opponent in Serie A history.
  • Verona snapped a run of four consecutive defeats in Serie A with their victory last weekend. However, they have not managed to secure back-to-back wins in the competition since March, when they triumphed over Sassuolo and Lecce in consecutive matches.
  • Hellas Verona have conceded at least one goal in their last 13 Serie A matches, the longest current streak without a clean sheet among teams in the league. Historically, only a few teams, such as Catania (15), Salernitana (15), Padova (18), and Livorno (27), have endured longer streaks without a shutout in the top flight.
  • After conceding two goals in each of their first three Serie A matches this season, AC Milan have turned things around defensively. They have kept a clean sheet in seven of their next 12 Serie A matches, a figure only bettered by Napoli (eight clean sheets) during the same period.

Player to Watch

Rafael Leao

Embed from Getty Images

Despite a modest tally of three Serie A goals this season, all of which have come in away games, Leao’s ability to create and capitalize on chances makes him a constant threat.

Leao’s pace, dribbling ability, and creativity are unmatched in the Milan squad, often making him the focal point of their attack. His ability to beat defenders one-on-one and deliver dangerous crosses or shots could be the key to unlocking Verona’s vulnerable defence, which has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 13 Serie A matches.

After captaining Milan in their previous outing, Leao will be motivated to lead by example once again and improve his goal tally. With the Rossoneri desperate for a win to boost their top-four ambitions, expect Leao to step up and deliver a match-winning performance.

Prediction

Hellas Verona 1-2 AC Milan

Milan’s defensive organisation, led by Mike Maignan and the centre-back duo, will be key to stopping a Verona side desperate for points. Conversely, Verona’s reliance on early goals, as seen in their win over Parma, could trouble Milan, who have struggled with lapses in concentration this season.

While the home side’s recent victory gives them some confidence, Milan’s superior quality and desperate need for a win should see them edge this encounter, keeping their top-four ambitions alive. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-1 win for Paulo Fonseca and his charges.

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