Arsenal vs Southampton: Preview and Prediction

Arsenal will want to keep the pressure on at the top of the Premier League standings as Mikel Arteta eyes another win when Southampton visit the Emirates.

Arsenal face Southampton this weekend, eager to continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 season. The Gunners have had a wonderful few games since their run of three or four tough matches in all competitions, during which they played the likes of Aston Villa, Tottenham, and Manchester City away from home.

Mikel Arteta’s men also endured a tough test at Atalanta, and given that they were missing key star and skipper Martin Odegaard, Arteta will consider their results a wonderful show of character. In any case, Arsenal returned to winning ways in the Premier League last weekend after a late show against Leicester City at home.

Leandro Trossard forced an injury-time own goal to seal all three points, as before that, the Foxes had battled a two-goal deficit to level things and fought hard to gain at least a point in North London. Kai Havertz followed up with a fractious goal at the death to make the scoreline look overwhelming.

Arsenal then faced one of their most challenging battles on paper in the UEFA Champions League earlier this week but made it look easy against a well-drilled PSG side. The Gunners are in supreme form at the moment on both ends of the pitch, and they will want to head into the international break in close proximity to the teams above them on the table as they host Southampton at the Emirates on Saturday.

Russell Martin will want his side to show some character on the pitch after a second-half performance against Bournemouth came to nothing in the end. The Saints found themselves three goals down on 39 minutes. But Taylor Harwood-Bellis did find the back of the net early in the second half. While they had an improved display after the break, it was too late, as the Cherries managed to see out the result.

Southampton are one of the four basement clubs that are yet to find a win this season, and not many will expect this team to get a win at the Emirates. They have so far been ineffective in the final third, while defensively, there are significant issues.

The big issue is the inability to adopt a style with the current players. Martin will have to make some changes to how they approach games. For instance, Southampton have made a significant investment in signing former Arsenal goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale, who could help them play out from the back, but the rest of the defence has to be equipped to play this way. If they are to try similar tactics on Saturday, Arsenal are the team to punish them in a big way.

Team News & Tactics

Arsenal

Arsenal are sweating over the fitness of a few critical stars, including Jurrien Timber, who only lasted about 45 minutes against PSG in the midweek fixture. Mikel Arteta had suggested it was a muscular issue for the Dutchman, and the decision to take him off looked more precautionary than anything, considering the manager had not ruled him out during his press conference.

Ben White is still a major doubt following his absence in the wins over Bolton Wanderers, Leicester City, and PSG, as he did not even make the squad for those games. Yet again, Arteta did not rule him out completely. However, the chances of White starting are remote, and we can assume Timber will take the right-back slot.

In the scenario that both are absent, the Arsenal manager can also use Thomas Partey there against Southampton, as the midfielder knows the role well.  Martin Odegaard and Oleksandr Zinchenko are out of the contest and are only expected to return sometime after the international break.

Meanwhile, Takehiro Tomiyasu has been training with the main group, and Arteta has insisted the Japanese international could be an option. However, the exit-linked defender will probably feature on the bench rather than starting at the weekend.

Beyond that, should Timber prove his fitness, Arteta is unlikely to make any changes from the midweek lineup, with Partey and Declan Rice starting in the midfield berths. Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are bang in form from the wide areas, while Leandro Trossard will continue to operate up front alongside Kai Havertz.

Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Saka, Partey, Rice, Martinelli; Havertz, Trossard

Southampton

Gavin Bazunu, Kamaldeen Sulemana, and Will Smallbone are out of contention for this trip to the Emirates. However, the latter still has a slim chance of making it through to the matchday squad, which will depend on the late assessments of his fitness. It got from bad to worse for Jack Stephens, who was banned for two more games after his foul language was used after his sending-off against Manchester United.

Beyond that, Russell Martin does not have too many problems, and he will look to make some tweaks from the disappointing result away at Bournemouth last Monday. For starters, the manager could revert to a back three, with Charlie Taylor likely to join Jan Bednarek and Taylor Harwood-Bellis.

The big focus will be on goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale, who returns to the Emirates as an opposition goalkeeper only months after his departure in the summer to Southampton. Back to the formation, Martin could bring Joe Aribo back into the midfield fold to partner alongside Flynn Downes and Mateus Fernandes.

Yukinari Sugawara and Kyle Walker-Peters are pencilled in to take the wing-back roles, which might come at the expense of exciting teenage attacker Tyler Dibling. The winger could be excluded, as Martin might opt to start with two strikers, Ben Brereton Diaz and Cameron Archer, upfront.

Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Ramsdale; Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Taylor; Sugawara, Fernandes, Downes, Aribo, Walker-Peters; Archer, Brereton Diaz

Key Stats

  • Arsenal have scored at least two goals in 19 of their last 24 matches in the Premier League.
  • Arsenal have scored at least two goals in five of their last six home matches against Southampton in all competitions.
  • Arsenal are undefeated in their last six home matches against Southampton in all competitions.
  • Arsenal have kept 17 clean sheets in 32 games in all competitions in 2024, the most of any Premier League side.
  • Southampton’s shot conversion rate of 4.4% is the lowest in the Premier League this season, while they have underperformed their expected goals total by 4.7 – only Manchester United (5.6) have a larger negative difference.

Player to Watch

Kai Havertz

Embed from Getty Images

The German attacker has really come to the fore as an Arsenal player following yet another superb performance on the pitch against PSG. Havertz also admitted that the current style of play he has been excelling in is not something he enjoyed before in his spell at Chelsea, but he conceded he is all in love with it.

Heading into the Saturday’s fixture against Southampton, Havertz can match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for scoring in five consecutive Premier League games at the Emirates. In addition, he is vying to become the second player to net in seven consecutive appearances at the Emirates in all competitions, emulating Robin van Persie between December 2011 and March 2012.

In the form the German has found, it is hard to play down the prospect of him scoring as he continues to prove that Mikel Arteta made the right decision not to sign a striker in the summer.

Prediction

Arsenal 4-1 Southampton

The Saints are not on the best run of form, and given the gulf in quality between the two teams, they will be excused if they fail to beat Arsenal at the Emirates. Russell Martin will certainly hope his men put in the performance of the season at the Emirates. But things look bleak for Southampton.

Arsenal, on the other hand, are brimming with confidence and will look to continue with their recent momentum into the Southampton game. The Gunners are also finding their attacking rhythm despite the absence of Odegaard, as this game on Saturday is when they can go all out in their attacking game and secure a big win over the Saints.

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