RB Leipzig will be keen to keep up with Bayern Munich when they take on FC St. Pauli in the Bundesliga on Sunday night.
St. Pauli are still searching for their first points of the new Bundesliga season as they prepare to face RB Leipzig at Millerntor-Stadion. The newly-promoted team has had a challenging start, losing all three of their league fixtures so far, while RB Leipzig have begun strongly, sitting in third place with seven points from their opening three matches.
After earning promotion to the top flight, St. Pauli were expected to face a tough challenge, and their early results have reflected this. Currently second from the bottom, they are yet to register a point in the league. Manager Alexander Blessin’s side have struggled to make an impact in attack, creating the least expected goals (xG), the fewest big chances, and averaging the fewest shots on target per match in the Bundesliga.
Their most recent match, a 3-1 defeat to Augsburg, highlighted these issues. Despite controlling 57% of the possession, they failed to convert that dominance into effective chances and conceded six big opportunities. Blessin, who has only managed one win in four competitive games since taking over, will need to find a solution quickly if his side are to avoid becoming early relegation candidates.
In contrast, RB Leipzig have enjoyed a strong start to their campaign, picking up two wins and a draw in their first three matches. Their highlight was a stunning comeback victory against Bayer Leverkusen, where they ended their opponent’s 35-game unbeaten run. Despite being 2-0 down, Leipzig rallied to win 3-2, showcasing their resilience and attacking prowess.
However, Marco Rose’s men were unable to follow up on that performance in their next league match, drawing 0-0 with Union Berlin. Additionally, they suffered a setback in the Champions League, losing 2-1 to Atletico Madrid after conceding a late goal. Despite these hiccups, Leipzig remain a formidable side, unbeaten in their last 17 competitive fixtures before the loss to Atletico and generally reliable in the league. The Hard Tackle explores the possible lineups and strategies for this much-awaited match.
Team News & Tactics
FC St. Pauli
St. Pauli are dealing with several injury concerns as they prepare to host RB Leipzig. Goalkeepers Sascha Burchert and Soren Ahlers remain unavailable, leaving Nikola Vasilj as the first-choice option between the posts. Midfielder Conor Metcalfe is also sidelined and is not expected to return until early October, while Robert Wagner could make a timely return to the squad this weekend, offering some hope in the middle of the park.
The attacking unit is similarly depleted, with forwards Maurides, Morgan Guilavogui, and Simon Zoller all ruled out for this clash. Their absences limit manager Alexander Blessin’s options up front, though the trio is anticipated to be available for selection next month. These setbacks could significantly impact St. Pauli’s ability to create chances and score against a tough Leipzig defence.
To cope with these challenges, St. Pauli are expected to set up in a 3-4-2-1 formation. Nikola Vasilj will start in goal, with Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, and Adam Dźwigała forming the back three to provide defensive solidity. Philipp Treu and Lars Ritzka will operate as wing-backs, tasked with supporting both defence and attack down the flanks. In central midfield, Jackson Irvine and Carlo Boukhalfa are likely to be paired to provide stability and creativity in the middle of the pitch.
Further forward, Elias Saad and Dapo Afolayan will be positioned in the attacking midfield roles, looking to link play and create opportunities for lone striker Johannes Eggestein. With limited attacking options due to injuries, St. Pauli will need their midfielders and wing-backs to contribute offensively if they are to pose a threat to RB Leipzig’s defence.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Vasilj; Wahl, Smith, Mets; Treu, Irvine, Boukhalfa, Ritzka; Afolayan, Saad; Eggestein
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig have several players sidelined for their trip to St. Pauli. Midfielder Xaver Schlager is out until January due to a cruciate ligament injury, which is a significant blow to their midfield depth. Assan Ouedraogo and Kevin Kampl will also miss Sunday’s match due to their respective injuries, leaving manager Marco Rose with limited options in the middle of the park. Despite these absences, Leipzig will aim to maintain their strong start to the Bundesliga season.
The Leipzig midfield will see some reshuffling, with Nicolas Seiwald and Arthur Vermeeren likely competing for a starting spot alongside Amadou Haidara. Both Seiwald and Vermeeren featured in the UEFA Champions League match against Atletico Madrid and could be called upon to provide stability and creativity in midfield. In defence, the reliable duo of Willi Orban and Castello Lukeba are set to start in front of veteran goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi, ensuring a solid backline to thwart St. Pauli’s attack.
RB Leipzig are expected to line up in a 4-4-2 formation. Peter Gulacsi will be the last line of defence, supported by Benjamin Henrichs and David Raum as full-backs, who will provide width and defensive cover. Willi Orban and Castello Lukeba will occupy the central defensive positions, aiming to keep the St. Pauli forwards at bay. In midfield, Arthur Vermeeren and Amadou Haidara will anchor the team, with Antonio Nusa and Xavi Simons providing support in wider roles.
Up front, the striking partnership of Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda will look to trouble the St. Pauli defence with their pace and finishing ability. The attacking duo will be crucial in converting Leipzig’s midfield dominance into goals, especially against a St. Pauli side that has struggled defensively in their opening matches. With several key players missing, Leipzig will rely on their depth and tactical flexibility to secure a positive result.
Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Gulacsi; Henrichs, Orban, Castello, Raum; Nusa, Haidara, Vermeeren, Simons; Sesko, Openda
Key Stats
- FC St. Pauli have lost their last three competitive games against RB Leipzig without scoring a goal. This is their longest losing streak against any team in German professional football. RB Leipzig have only endured a longer losing streak once, against both FC Bayern (2021-2022) and Borussia Dortmund (2020-2021).
- RB Leipzig are currently unbeaten in their last 14 Bundesliga games (W9 D5), the longest ongoing unbeaten run in the Bundesliga. If they avoid defeat against St. Pauli, they would equal their club record of 15 consecutive games without loss, set under Ralf Rangnick between January and May 2019.
- FC St. Pauli have started this Bundesliga season with three consecutive losses, a first in their nine top-flight campaigns. Their current goal difference of -5 is also a negative club record, and they have lost 14 of their last 15 Bundesliga matches (D1), including each of the last seven.
- With seven points from their first three games, this is RB Leipzig’s best start to a Bundesliga campaign in four years. They also achieved seven points at this stage in the 2020/21 season. The last time they had more than seven points after three games was in 2019/20 (9 points).
- FC St. Pauli have lost each of their last six Bundesliga home games across multiple seasons, an ongoing negative club record. A run of seven or more top-flight home defeats has only been recorded by five other teams in Bundesliga history, with the most recent being Darmstadt (7 losses) in the 2023/24 season.
Player to Watch
Lois Openda
Openda has established himself as a key player in their attacking setup. The Belgian forward has already made a significant impact with his speed, sharp movement, and goal-scoring instincts. His ability to get in behind defences and his clinical finishing make him a constant threat to any opposition.
In this match against a struggling FC St. Pauli side, Openda’s pace and positioning can exploit gaps in a defence that has been leaky and vulnerable, conceding multiple goals in their opening matches. With RB Leipzig looking to maintain their unbeaten run and push for the top spots, Openda’s goalscoring prowess will be crucial. His partnership with Benjamin Sesko upfront can create a dynamic offensive force, likely causing problems for St. Pauli’s backline.
The Belgian striker’s presence in the box, coupled with his ability to link up play and press high, means he can also draw defenders out of position, creating space for his teammates to capitalize on. His performance in this match could be decisive in ensuring Leipzig continues their strong start to the season.
Prediction
FC St. Pauli 0-3 RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig should have the quality to comfortably overcome a struggling St. Pauli side, especially given their recent form and attacking prowess. St. Pauli’s defensive frailties make it likely that Leipzig’s attacking unit, led by Lois Openda, will find plenty of opportunities to score. The Hard Tackle predicts a 3-0 win for Marco Rose and his charges.
