Surprise Group C leaders Saudi Arabia will aim to clinch an unlikely early qualification to the knockout stages with a victory over Poland.
Poland and Saudi Arabia will lock horns against each other at the Education City Stadium on Saturday, in what will be crucial game in determining how Group C unfolds.
Saudi Arabia defied all odds to pull off the greatest upset in World Cup history in the opening round of World Cup fixtures. They shocked the footballing world as they slayed down tournament giants, Lionel Messi led Argentina to snap La Albiceleste’s sensational 36-game undefeated winning run.
The result means Group C has been turned on its head, with minnows Saudi Arabia currently perched at the top, opening up the possibility that a Middle Eastern side could advance to the knockout stages in Qatar.
Salem Al-Dawsari’s scorching curled strike from the edge of the penalty area completed a remarkable turnaround for the Green Falcons on opening day, earning him a cult-hero status in his homeland and even inspiring a national holiday.
Heading into their match against Poland, the Saudi Arabian camp will be feeling very confident and will want to build on that momentum, as they know that even a share of the spoils will increase their chances of advancing to the next round even further, while another famous victory will put a rubber stamp on their ticket to the Round of 16.
Poland’s squad, in contrast, will be in a frustrated mood as all the pressure is now on them after they started with a disappointing goalless stalemate against Mexico. Should they fail to make it out of the group, the draw will be recalled in people’s minds.
Of all the players, Robert Lewandowski would find it difficult to get past a game tainted by his botched second-half penalty. Nevertheless, this is not the time to ruin a wasted opportunity; they must show the undoubted quality this Poland squad possesses in this do-or-die stage. A win could see Poland leapfrog Saudi Arabia into table-toppers position and would give them four points heading into the final match in group play, against Argentina.
Goal difference could prove to be a crucial tiebreaker in this group. Poland will not only have to strive to get three points on the board here. But they also need to win by a good margin if they are to prevent any shock exit in the final matchday in this unpredictable group. This game could be crucial in deciding who advances to the next round, so let us get straight to the crux of things.
Team News & Tactics
Poland
"We've analyzed the game, there were many times when we lost the ball not because of pressing, but because of the quality of the pass. If that quality was lacking, then the opponent kept up with the pressing. We need to do better here."
🗣️ Czesław Michniewicz via Presser
— PSN Futbol (@PSN_Futbol) November 24, 2022
While Poland might have squeezed a victory against Mexico if Robert Lewandowski had converted the penalty kick with more precision, Czeslaw Michniewicz’s men did their star striker no favours. He seemed to have no support network around him or the right service to work with because the tactics were focused on defending deep and launching quick counterattacks with low numbers, which did not play to his strengths.
Poland should be more aggressive, or else they run the risk of crashing out of the tournament early. Michniewicz will be mindful of the situation. He used the 4-1-4-1 formation last time out but could revert to a 3-5-2 set up against Saudi Arabia to pit both Arkadiusz Milik and Lewandowski up top to provide additional firepower.
Wojciech Szczesny picks himself between the sticks, with Jan Bednarek, Jakub Kiwior, and Kamil Glik likely to form a three-man central defensive unit. Matty Cash and Nicola Zalewski should be the two wing-backs, with the duo providing the width in the final third.
As for the engine room, Grzegorz Krychowiak will be the holding midfielder and will likely line up alongside Feyenoord youngster Sebastian Szymanski. Piotr Zielinski should be the third midfielder for Poland, with the 28-year-old providing the creative impetus for the attackers and being a source of goals from midfield.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Szczesny; Bednarek, Glik, Kiwior; Cash, Szymanski, Krychowiak, Zielinski, Zalewski; Milik, Lewandowski
Saudi Arabia
Defender Yasir Al Shahrani will miss this game after breaking his jaw in an unfortunate collision with his own goalkeeper during the victory over Argentina. Captain Salman Al-Faraj has also suffered an injury on his left shinbone as he left the pitch shortly before half-time due to an injury in the opener.
Few saw it coming that Saudi Arabia would beat Argentina and Lionel Messi. But a well-organized 4-1-4-1/4-3-3 system and a brave high defensive line did the job despite having only 31 per cent of the possession. As this game with Robert Lewandowski has its own set of difficulties, the task does not get any easier.
Yasser Al Shahrani underwent a successful surgery in Riyadh pic.twitter.com/FYvVcyOqW5
— Saudi National Team (@SaudiNT_EN) November 24, 2022
Saudi Arabia also rode their luck at times; they saw three goals against them chalked off for offside, and they conceded a lot of chances while being prolific with their own. But the perks of their extended warm-weather preparation for the tournament were very clear in their first game.
And while there is still a talent gap to overcome, they are sharper, better drilled, and more diligent in following their game plan. The Green Falcons also looked fresher in the latter stages of the game as Argentina grew tired. They should have plenty left in the tank to give Poland a good game.
Coach Herve Renard could keep the majority of the starting XI that faced Argentina, with Mohammed Al-Breik and Nawaf Al-Abed being the two enforced changes at left-back and midfield due to injuries.
Mohammed Al-Owais made some superb saves in the dying embers of the Argentina game and will man the goal. He will be protected by a resilient back-four of Mohammed Al-Breik, Ali Al-Bulaihi, Hassan Al Tambakti, and Abdulhamid.
Abdulellah Al Malki, Mohamed Kanno, and Nawaf Al-Abed could be key in the Green Falcons’ second line of press as they look to prevent the Poland midfielders from dictating the game.
Firas Al Buraikan will be the sole man up front, with wide-men Saleh Al-Shehri and Salem Al-Dawsari just behind the pocket of space of the versatile forward to form a rotational attack.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Al-Owais; Abdulhamid, Al Tambakti, Al-Bulaihi, Al-Breik; Al-Abed, Al Malki, Kanno; Al-Shehri, Al Buraikan, Al Dawsari
Key Stats
- This match will mark the first-ever World Cup meeting between Poland and Saudi Arabia. The two teams have met in friendly matches in Saudi Arabia four times, with Poland winning all of them.
- The Green Falcons are undefeated in seven of their last eight matches across all competitions since June (W3 D4).
- With the exception of their goalless draw against Mexico, Poland have won two of their last three games.
- The last time Poland advanced past the group stages was in 1986, despite having a world-class striker for a good while now; thus if they wish to do so this time around, they must win this game.
Player to Watch
Robert Lewandowski
Much of Poland’s hopes will be pinned on star striker Lewandowski, who is the country’s outright top scorer. But he has yet to score in four World Cup appearances, missing the opening-game penalty kick among his 11 efforts on goal. While it is difficult to justify backing him to come good in this match, not all of the Poles’ goalscoring problems have been his fault.
Czeslaw Michniewicz’s men were pinned for long periods with just 39 per cent possession against Mexico, leaving Lewandowski isolated up front. The Barcelona man has exceptional goalscoring instincts and positioning, and he generates a ton of shots by constantly being in the perfect spots in the penalty area.
Lewandowski, though, is not the type of player who can be a one-man attack at this phase of his career. So, having someone like Arkadiusz Milik alongside him to hold the ball up and provide the opposing defence with a distraction could work in the 34-year-old’s favour and get the best out of him.
Prediction
Poland 2-1 Saudi Arabia
Given their superior world ranking and the Robert Lewandowski factor, Poland are the favourites for their encounter against Saudi Arabia on Saturday. It makes logical sense not to jump the gun on Saudi Arabia’s win over Argentina. The Green Falcons will be very careful not to let in goals in this match as they will hope to earn at least a draw in order to advance to the Round of 16.
The use of a high line will be frugal this time around. And while Poland lack the genuine skill to dominate the ball against elite teams, they are quite adept at playing fast-paced, direct football that escapes the pressure of the opponent while allowing ball-playing defenders to pick out their passes, spraying the flanks or lumping it to two towering centre-forwards.
Then there are midfield runners, like Piotr Zielinski, who possess a great knack for scoring goals from range or making late runs into the box. Poland are much more dynamic and not possession-heavy like Argentina. That is why we expect Lewandowski and co. to come out on top, albeit by the slimmest of margins.
