Germany v/s Portugal: Predicted Line-up, Tactics and Key Contests

The stage is set. The Arena Fonte Nava in Salvador will host one of the marquee contests of the group stage in World Cup 2014: Germany v/s Portugal. Both teams head into this game with plenty on the line. The winner of this game is more than likely to top the group and in the process, avoid facing a tough opponent in the round of 16. But both teamsai??i?? preparations have been severely hampered by injuries to key players. Cristiano Ronaldo may ultimately start for Portugal but will he last the full 90 minutes in the heat and humidity of Salvador when he is not 100% fit? Bastian Schweinsteiger, Lahm and Khedira are still struggling for match fitness and if reports in Germany are to be believed, Bastian may well not feature in the starting line-up on Monday. There are other problems as well for Germany, with their orchestrator-in-chief, Mesut Ozil struggling for any semblance of form. All in all, this game may well prove to be a test of character and fitness of the two sets of players rather than their skill.

Germany

The Bundestrainer in his press conference on Friday gave very little tactics away with the only real piece of information being that Philipp Lahm will start in midfield and not in defence. This was not something which was unexpected. But it does leave some question marks on the presence or absence of Bastian Scweinsteiger in the playing XI. This also means that Jerome Boateng will start at right-back tasked with the unenvied job of tracking Ronaldo. Ai??There are also questions being asked whether Mesut Ozil will feature in the starting XI, with Bild.de reporting that Low has already omitted Ozil from his line-up for Portugal. It will be a real surprise to see Ozil not featuring from the start and it will also signify Germany departing from their traditional style of possession football.

In such an event, it is very likely that Germany will play a 4-3-3 as against their traditional 4-2-3-1, with Andre Schurrle stepping in on the right side of attack in place of Ozil. The problem with playing Schweinsteiger, Lahm and Khedira in the midfield three is that the line up becomes too defensive. You get three rather similar players in terms of their strengths, and although Lahm is mobile, he will be busy taking care of Ronaldo alongside Boateng. As a result, one is left with two players who are defensively solid but hesitant to play the long ball to the runners for quick counters. And for this very reason, it is likely that Toni Kroos will be one of the three midfielders on show. He is more than capable of attempting the long balls to start a quick counter, keep possession of the ball and when required, do a defensive job better than someone like Ozil would do.

In defense, the good news for Germany is that Manuel Neuer has recovered from his shoulder knock and will start the game. No surprises in terms of the CB pairing of Hummels and Mertesacker. The only real surprise might be that of Howedes playing at left-back after an impressive showing against Armenia where he also grabbed a goal late in the second half.

The toss-up is between Khedira and Schweinsteiger. Only one of them will start and it may well boil down to who is more match-fit.

In the heat and humidity of Salvador, it will be very surprising to see Germany start with the 36-year-old Klose. In all likelihood, the task of leading the line will rest in the hands of Thomas Muller. Muller has played there in the past and his scoring record for Die Mannschaft is impressive. Also, in terms of sheer physical presence, the taller frame of Muller provides a better target than Mario Gotze. It will thus be more feasible for Germany to start with Muller and bring on Klose as a late substitute when he can have the most impact in limited time against the tired legs in the Portuguese defense.

Schurrle and Podolski provide Germany with pace and power which will be very essential for a 4-3-3 formation. They can also interchange with Muller on occasion and are coming into this game having scored and assisted goals in the previous match against Armenia. Mario Gotze and Mesut Ozil are exactly the kind of players one would want as substitutes. They lack pace but are adept in playing the killer passes and again just like Klose, can play havoc against the tired Portuguese defense.

Portugal

Paulo Bentoai??i??s side has slipped under the radar a bit, albeit having arguably the best player in the world on their team. The Portuguese are often touted as a ai???one-man-teamai??? over-reliant on a certain Cristiano Ronaldo. But when one has a player of Ronaldoai??i??s caliber on your team, one can be forgiven for building his team around that individual. Having said that, there is much more about this team than just Ronaldo. As Low pointed out,

They are just behind us in the FIFA rankings, and they are world champions in the counter attack. With or without Ronaldo, their style of play remains the same. They have gone far in all recent tournaments. Joao Moutinho, Nani, Cristiano Ronaldo, Pepe, Fabio Coentrao; they all play at the highest level. They are very dangerous. There is no favourite. Both teams have the same quality.(per ESPN).

Much like Germany, Portugal has flattered to deceive on the big occasions, losing to Spain in the knock out rounds in their previous two tournaments.

It looks as though Bento has a fully fit squad to choose from with William Carvalho putting to rest any doubts surrounding Ronaldoai??i??s fitness declaring he is 100% fit despite images surfacing on the internet where Ronaldo hobbled off the training ground with an ice pack around his knee. Helder Postiga and Nani are expected to join him in attack with Joao Moutinho pulling the strings from the midfield. William Carvalho, the highly-rated Sporting youngster is expected to line-up alongside the experienced, Mohawk-ed head of Raul Meireles.

Fabio Coentrao is a no-brainer at left back and the solid Joao Perreira has been the favored Right Back for a while now. The effervescent Pepe partners the experienced Bruno Alves who will be playing in his last World Cup.

All in all the Portuguese line-up is more straightforward to pick than the Germans.

More often than not Portugalai??i??s attacking play is focused around the trio of Moutinho, Nani and Ronaldo. Moutinho is the player who looks to pull the strings from the centre pinging passes out wide for Ronaldo and Nani. Nani provides the real width to the team whereas; Ronaldo generally cuts in from the left hand side onto his favoured right foot. How far Portugal goes in this tournament will have a lot to do with these three players.

Tactics

Given Mesut Ozilai??i??s lack of form, it will be unsurprising to see him on the bench than as a starter. However, as mentioned earlier, this would mean Germany will play a more direct brand of football. This may actually suit them better than their usual style of play against the Portuguese. In Lowai??i??s own words,

Portugal might base their game on the counter a bit more, they already prepare for the counter attack when defending. Ronaldo and Nani position themselves in the no-man’s land. They have scored ten of their last 12 goals from the counter.(per ESPN).

If Germany plays itai??i??s typical all out attack approach, it would leave spaces for Ronaldo and Nani to run into and given the ai???pedestrian paceai??? of the German centre-backs, it might prove to be very costly for the team. Instead if they set up with the aim of playing more direct, counter punching football, they will force Portugal to come out more and play higher up the pitch, which will in turn create spaces for Schurrle and Podolski. Portugal on the other hand would hope that Germany play their usual stuff which will leave them open for quick breaks. Nani and Ronaldo as stated earlier will be their key men in attack with Coentrao overlapping when Ronaldo cuts inside.

To sum it all up, this contest will prove to be a real doozy for both managers who will try to outwit and outsmart each other.

The Key Contests:

1) Cristiano Ronaldo v/s Lahm + Boateng

With Philipp Lahm expected to line-up in the midfield, Jerome Boateng will take up the reigns as Germanyai??i??s right back. Explaining his decision, Low was quoted, ai???How can I keep Ronaldo at bay? Jerome has shown he can do it. You have to be on alert when playing him. Whoever plays him must know where Ronaldo is, what he does all the time. He runs paths that are the best, creeps into the dead angle, gets blind passes from his teammates.ai??? In the Euro 2012 group stage encounter, Germany had kept a clean sheet against a very similar-looking Portugal. Much of it was down to how well Boateng played to contain Ronaldo. It is never an easy task to mark him, let alone contain him. However, if Lahm and Boateng can do a 2-on-1 situation on him and deny him the space, it can be achieved. However, he is not the best player in the world for nothing. He is his countryai??i??s talisman and he will be hoping he can run rings around the German defense with Coentrao in support. Portugal will need Ronaldo to be at his very best if they hope to beat Germany. Who wins this contest, will go a long way in deciding who wins the match.

2) Joao Moutinho v/s Schweinsteiger/Khedira

As mentioned earlier, Moutinho is the lynchpin of this Portuguese side. He always looks to play the ball out to his runners. He is their supply line. Germany must cut off this supply so that they can ice out Ronaldo and Nani from taking possession of the ball. The man who will be responsible for this will either be Schweini or Khedira, again, based on their fitness. Irrespective, this contest will be very crucial as Moutinho is the one who dictates the tempo for his side. If one limits his passing and movement, that is half the battle won right there. If Germany opts to play the midfield three, Moutinho would be denied space and time to work the ball to his attackers.

3) Miroslav Klose v/s Bruno Alves

This one promises to be the battle of the ai???Golden Oldiesai???. Bruno Alves and Miroslav Klose have been stalwarts for their nations and both might well be playing in their last World Cups. Miroslav Klose will most likely be used as an impact substitute by Jogi Low. Miroslav Klose is a defenderai??i??s nightmare with his clever movement and precise finishing. Bruno Alves will be tasked with keeping his runs under check. If the match is precariously hanging in the balance, one piece of brilliance from Klose can make a big difference to his sideai??i??s fortune. Letai??i??s not forget, Bruno Alves is also more than capable of scoring a goal from set pieces. This may well prove to be a key battle as the winner will have a very tangible impact on his sideai??i??s fortunes. Klose will aim to overake the ai???originalai??? Ronaldoai??i??s record of being the highest goal scorer in World Cup football and Alves will really have to be up against it to stop him getting there. One to watch.

Germany has a young squad while Portugal has one of the oldest in the World Cup. Low has insisted his squad is fired up for the start of the World Cup and there is no reason to believe Portugal would be anything else. Whoever wins this match will really lay down a marker for the rest of the competition. Portugal would settle for a draw but Germany will want to win to justify their tag as favourites. Momentum is everything in this tournament and the start is the key. We will have two European giants going at it on Monday. Sit back and enjoy this slug fest.

~ Anuj Chiplunkar

Germany v/s Portugal: Tactics and Key Contests

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