Arsenal FCAi??enter the 2014-2015 season with optimism, after their triumph in the FA Cup and a successful summer. While they may be a few key signings from making a title bid as strong as Manchester City or Chelsea will this season, this Arsenal side has certainly improved from last season.
Squad Analysis
Goalkeepers ai??i?? Wojciech Szczesny, David Ospina
Going into 2014-2015, it appears that Arsenal have upgraded the quality of their goalkeeping options, with Lukasz Fabianski going to Swansea City and David Ospina coming in from Nice. Ospina impressed both internationally for Colombia and in France. An interesting stat (albeit possible useless stat) is that in the past two seasons in Ligue 1, Nice conceded 38 goals in 21 games (1.81 goals per game) without Ospina and conceded only 52 goals in 55 games with Ospina (0.95 goals per game). In opting for a young goalkeeper (Ospina is only 25 years old), it seems Wenger prefers to provide Szczesny a true competitor for the No. 1 goalkeeping position.
While Szczesny did improve last season, he would do well to improve his ability to judge balls in the air. On crosses, chips, or long balls into the box, Szczesny finds himself in no manai??i??s land too often. Either he starts his movement too late or he moves with some uncertainty (think on a corner when he initially comes out, stops, goes back and finds himself in a terrible position). This can lead to poor punches, missed opportunities to claim the ball, goals and, at worst, getting sent off against Bayern Munich. If Szczesny can fix that aspect of his game, he probably cements his place as Arsenalai??i??s first-choice keeper for the long-term.
Defenders – Mathieu Debuchy, Laurent Koscielny, Kieran Gibbs, Nacho Monreal, Per Mertesacker, Calum Chambers
Defense represents another area of the pitch that Arsenal improved in the summer transfer window. While Bacary Sagna was one of Arsenalai??i??s best and most consistent performers for years, there were some glaring limitations in his game. While Sagna was a rock defensively when he was in position, his penchant to take up advanced positions and his inability to recover from those positions (probably due to a combination of age and past injuries) left Arsenalai??i??s defense in vulnerable positions. Possibly more damaging was Sagnaai??i??s inability to do much with the ball at his feet. He could participate in the short passing game (he seemed to develop a nice relationship with Mesut Ozil), but he could not dribble past anyone (the best one could hope for from a Sagna dribble was a throw-in for Arsenal). This meant that Sagna could not play the role of ball-carrier when teams pressed Arsenalai??i??s midfield out of the game. Sagnaai??i??s inability to cross well, combined with his inability to dribble, made him rather impotent in the final third as well. For past Arsenal sides under Wenger, this would not represent a problem, as the left-back tended to have more responsibility in the attack. However, with Kieran Gibbs as Arsenalai??i??s first choice left-back going forward, that probably needs to change.
One reason to prefer Kieran Gibbs over Nacho Monreal is his greater ability to defend an entire flank without much help from the left-sided midfield/wide forward/winger. This is particularly important given that Arsenal will probably field Santi Cazorla on the left, who tends to try to win the ball high up the pitch rather than track back, which can leave Gibbs isolated. However, outside of his athleticism that allows him to make runs from deep positions, making them harder to mark, he does not offer much once the ball gets to his feet. So while he could improve his offensive abilities, Wenger seems to have shifted the attacking full back role to the right side.
Mathieu Debuchy represents a significant upgrade offensively when compared to Bacary Sagna, and therefore, represents a move valuable type of players at right-back compared to the Frenchman. He is faster than Sagna, better at making runs (really an issue of timing them), and he is better on the ball. He may not defend as well as Sagna when comparing situations where both find themselves in the proper position. However, Debuchy won a greater percentage of headers than Sagna did last season; he made more tackles; he made more interceptions. Debuchy has more of an ability to recover from advanced positions than Sagna. Finally, and this may have more to do with Newcastle playing poorly as a defensive unit, he excels at sweeping and making last-man challenges. It appears that Debuchy represents a more than adequate replacement for Sagna.
Ai??While the Debuchy signing is one for the present, the signing of Calum Chambers serves as a long-term investment. Interestingly, it seems that Wenger wants to play Chambers at center back and right-back, depending on the faith Wenger has in Hector Bellerin. He could also get appear in a holding midfield role in the Capital One Cup. His athleticism, intelligence, on-ball ability, and his composure define him as a player. These attributes give him the potential to play in multiple roles. These attributes make him a rather interesting option at center back, in particular. In possession, with Arsenal pushing their right-back high up the pitch, the right-sided center back has to defend the space vacated by the right-back. Chambers attributes and his experience at right-back would lead one to believe that he could effectively cover for a marauding right-back. Also, his athleticism and ability on the ball should allow Arsenal to split their center backs wider, when building up from the back. This could allow Arsenal to build from the back more effectively and decrease their reliance on the goalkeeper punting it long for Olivier Giroud to head. So while Calum Chambers may not play an important role for Arsenal this season, his potential could make him one of Arsenal most important pieces for years to come.
Finally, Arsenal will still have the best center back pairing in the English Premier League in Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker. With Chambers as an adequate fill in for Mertesacker on the right, something they did not have last season, Arsenal need a left-sided center back to provide backup, and possibly a successor, for Koscielny. Given the play of Thomas Vermaelen in an Arsenal uniform, finding an upgrade over the Belgian should not prove too difficult.
Midfielders ai??i?? Tomas Rosicky, Mikel Arteta, Jack Wilshere, Mesut Ozil, Aaron Ramsey, Santi Cazorla, Mathieu Flamini, Abou Diaby, Francis Coquelin, Gedion Zelalem
Unless Arsenal sign a holding midfielder, Arsenalai??i??s midfield options remain unchanged. Last season, the issue with Arsenalai??i??s midfield came down to health, not quality. Injuries to Aaron Ramsey and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Arsenal.com have him as a forward but, Wenger seems set on having him develop as a central midfielder) had a devastating impact, as those injuries took away two of Arsenalai??i??s dynamic on-the-ball threats. Losing Mesut Ozil, who had held Arsenalai??i??s attack together without Theo Walcott and Ramsey, led to Arsenalai??i??s becoming completely static and impotent on offense. Keeping these players healthy, along with signing a holding midfielder, should go a long way towards Arsenal contending for the title.
It will be interesting to see how Wenger sets up his midfield. In preseason, Arsenal showed off a 4-1-4-1 formation. If Arsenal sign a player who could play in a long holding role (William Carvalho?), going 1 down-2 up instead of 2 down-1 up in central midfield Ai??would allow Arsenal to transition more quickly once they win possession, promote greater fluidity in attack, and facilitate the creation of passing triangles. Without such a signing, Arsenalai??i??s midfield will probably remain a 2 down-1 up, with the most common system being an asymmetric 4-2-3-1, with Cazorla coming deep and infield on the left and Walcott high and making diagonal runs from the right.
Forwards ai??i?? Lukas Podolski, Olivier Giroud, Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Alexis Sanchez, Yaya Sanogo, Serge Gnabry, Joel Campbell, Ryo Miyaichi
Arsenalai??i??s biggest signing could signal a return of the all-around attacker at center forward for the Gunners. As this author wrote, Alexis Sanchez has all the attributes to play up top for the Gunners. If Wenger does play Sanchez up top, one could see a rather fluid attack from Arsenal, with Sanchez acting as both a goal scorer and a creator. Defenses will probably struggle to understand what is happening in front of them when Arsenal have an attacking quintet of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Mesut Ozil, Aaron Ramsey, Theo Walcott, and Alexis Sanchez. With Sanchez potentially making the center forward position his own, this could allow Olivier Giroud to operate as a Plan B and without the immense workload Arsenal put on him last season.
Initially, Sanchez may play on the right, due to the knee injury Theo Walcott suffered against Tottenham in the FA Cup last season. His injury represented the beginning of the end of Arsenalai??i??s title challenge, as injuries to Aaron Ramsey and Mesut Ozil followed. If he can come back to 100% of what he was before the injury, Arsenal have a wide forward who fits perfectly with both Alexis Sanchez and Olivier Giroud.
In Yaya Sanogo, Arsenal have a promising prospect; however, one should not expect much from him this season. Unlike small pacy strikers (think Michael Owen or Nicholas Anelka), big-man center forwards tend to discover how to use all their attributes at 23/24 years of age. He could play an important role in a Capital One Cup or FA Cup run, but it seems unlikely that he becomes a relied upon starter for Arsenal in 2014-15.
Along with Sanogo, Arsenal have two young players who could operate as dynamic super-subs this season. One of the biggest lessons of the World Cup, driven by the climate of Brazil, was the how much of an impact athletic and direct players can be as super-subs. Belgium stand out as a nation who took advantage of this, bringing on either Romelu Lukaku or Divock Origi to run past tired defenses. In Serge Gnabry and Joel Campbell, Arsenal have two direct dribblers who have the potential to abuse tired defenses. Wenger may also use Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in this type of role in matches the Englishman does not start. Intelligent use of substitutes could help Arsenal pick up the occasional win or salvage the occasional point and play a key role in a title bid.
Transfers
Tactical Analysis
Much of what Arsenal do with their formation and their system will rely on whether they can acquire someone who can operate as a lone holder. If they do acquire such a player, they will likely move to a 4-1-4-1 formation. In possession, this formation turns into a 2-3-2-3 (both sets of wide men advance) and then a 3-4-3 (holding midfield drops between or to the side of the center backs). Ai??This formation lends itself nicely to a center forward who can drop deep and operate as a creator, while stilling remaining a threat off the dribble and a threat to score, and wide forwards. It also helps midfielders who like to make runs from deep (Aaron Ramsey) and promotes movement and fluidity that play right into the hands of players like Santi Cazorla and Mesut Ozil. It seems like a system Arsenal should adopt.
However, it does require a player who can operate as a lone midfielder, a player Arsenal do not have. If they cannot find a player who can operate in this role, Arsenal will probably continue with a 4-2-3-1. Theoretically, a side with this formation does not transition as well as the side with the 4-1-4-1. If one looks at the diagram of the 2-3-2-3 and flips the midfield triangle (so go from the 1 down-2 up of the 4-1-4-1 to the 2 down-1 up of the 4-2-3-1), one can see that the both deeper midfielders each have less clear passing options (passes that do not intersect positional triangles) compared to the deepest midfielder in the 4-1-4-1, making it harder to build attacks from those areas. The ability for the deeper midfield to move the ball forward is also compromised. This is because the side in possession cannot allocate resources, in this case a midfielder, into an advanced area as quickly as they could in the 4-1-4-1.
However, this cost is worth bearing, as neither Mikel Arteta nor Mathieu Flamini can operate as a lone holder, at this high a level of competition. These players require Arsenal to allocate more resources to defend in front of the back line than someone who could operate as a lone holder. Having that extra midfielder gives Arsenal a greater ability to cope with an opponent attempting to overload the area in front of the back line.
With a designated No. 10, although Mesut Ozilai??i??s greatest ability is his ability and willingness to take up positions all around the pitch, the formation does not take advantage of an all-around attacker at center forward as well as the 4-1-4-1. While Arsenal could operate with a fluid front four, like they did against Napoli, this formation incentivizes playing Olivier Giroud up top, as he makes long balls to spark attacks more efficient. In such a formation, with everyone healthy, Arsenal could field an attacking trio of Alexis Sanchez, Mesut Ozil, and Theo Walcott behind the Frenchman, with Santi Cazorla making appearances on the left wing or in an advanced central role.
Player to Watch
Alexis Sanchez
If the signing of Mesut Ozil gave Arsenal fans hope for an end to the era of austerity and a beginning of a new era of wealth for Arsenal football club, then the signing of Alexis Sanchez confirmed it. While he may take some time to adapt to life in the Premier League, he has the potential to give Arsenal an athletic all-around attacker at center forward for the first time since Thierry Henry (depending on how highly one rates 2007/08 Emmanuel Adebayor). Having him at that position could lead to one of the most fluid Arsenal attacks in recent memory. Even if he does not play center forward, his versatility and ability allow him to play anywhere in the attacking trio. An injury to Mesut Ozil or Theo Walcott will not strike as large of a blow with the Chilean more than able to operate in their positions, albeit in his own way. Finally, for football fans, not just Arsenal fans, this season will give us a look at what Sanchez can accomplish as the primary risk-taker at a club, for the first time since he left Udinese. At Barcelona, Sanchez seemed shackled by having to play for Lionel Messi. Messi is the primary risk-taker and the only one with the freedom to takes risks. Sanchez operated to create space for Messi while not disrupting Barcelonaai??i??s possession game by suppressing his desire to take risks. Now, at Arsenal, football fans will get to see what Sanchez is about, and if his style at the World Cup is any indication, it will not be anything short of electric.
Predictions
(Assuming no more signings are made)
League Finish ai??i?? 3rd
Champions League ai??i?? Quarterfinal Exit
FA Cup ai??i?? Quarterfinal Exit
Capital One Cup ai??i?? Quarterfinal Exit
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