The away goals rule has been a hideous anachronism for several years now. When it was introduced, it had a purpose. Away trips in Europe were awkward and lengthy, and wore teams out even before they faced alien and often hostile conditions. The tendency was for away sides to pack men behind the ball, bunker down and hope for the best, which produced dull football. But these days, stadiums are homogenised, travel is easier and the chances of being intimidated by a Romanian police dog much reduced.
Perhaps on other continents, on which internal travel remains difficult, there is still some logic to the rule but in Europe it has produced a strange effect, which is that home teams in knockout ties are so paranoid about conceding that they become defensive. That anxiety was clear in the semi-final between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich last season when, after a rollicking first half at the Bernabeu, both teams suddenly shut down, with Real realising that to concede a goal was effectively to concede one-and-a-half goals: the risk-reward balance of them attacking was skewed against them.
Manchester United face a similar problem on Tuesday. Having drawn 1-1 in the Bernabeu, they start with a slim advantage: donai??i??t concede and they go through. Given Realai??i??s capacity to counter-attack at pace, particularly that of Cristiano Ronaldo, a cautious approach would be understandable. This is where the evolution of Sir Alex Fergusonai??i??s approach becomes interesting. A decade ago, he would surely have attacked Real come what may – as he did, for instance, in the quarter-final in 2000 after a goalless first leg in Madrid; on that occasion United lost 3-2. That game was part of a series of setbacksAi??at home that modified Fergusonai??i??s approach. In Europe he became far more defensive. If this game had been played four or five years ago, United would almost certainly have taken a cautious, counter-attacking approach.
But this season has seen Ferguson return to the old swashbuckling principles, almost as though those two defeats to Barcelona in Champions League finals convinced him that trying simply to resist the tide was never going to work. So for this game, how does he balance that new commitment to attack with the need to protect against Real Madridai??i??s counters?
The likelihood is that Phil Jones will be used as a blocking player to the right of a midfield three, helping Rafael to shut down Ronaldo. Two players have really troubled United this season: Marouane Fellaini and Gareth bale; as Michael Cox has pointed out, the second time Ferguson played Everton and Spurs, he gave Jones a specific role to close them down. He will sure do the same with Ronaldo who, despite scoring a magnificent header, was kept reasonably quiet in the first leg.
That in turn means the shape could be a 4-3-3 rather than 4-2-3-1, which would probably mean Rooney operating from the left. It wonai??i??t be the sort of defensive forward role at which Park Ji-Sung used to excel but he will be expected to stifle Alvaro Arbeloa, while trying to attack the space available on the diagonal inside the full-back. That way of playing also has the advantage of pressuring the player who is probably Realai??i??s least comfortable in possession.
The danger of doing that, though, is that Xabi Alonso is left free in midfield to dictate the tempo of the game. Given Van Persie will start, that would mean a 4-2-3-1 with Rooney disrupting Alonso and Jones alongside presumably Michael Carrick at the back of midfield. What that means, though, is that whoever takes up the wide positions will have to do their share of defensive work. Ronaldo may be the main threat but itai??i??s important for United not to get so obsessed by him that they neglect the danger posed by Angel Di Maria on the other flank and Mesut Ozil through the middle. Equally, if Rafael tracks Ronaldo, there is a danger of overlaps, whether from Marcelo or Fabio Coentrao. Luis Antonio Valencia will presumably be used on the right for United, and he must track diligently. This was an area in which Manchester City failed badly in their two games against Real in the group stage, regularly allowing the left-back to surge forward, adding an extra man to the attack.
And then thereai??i??s the danger of leaving Carrick exposed. If Jones ends up drifting right to block Ronaldo, Carrick effectively has to hold the centre himself, which complicates his job of picking up Ozil.Thatai??i??s why itai??i??s easy to imagine Ferguson opting for a 4-3-3, with Rooney used on the left but with a brief to come inside, both to link up with Van Persie and to unsettle Alonso.
Where United may feel they have an advantage over Real is with set-plays. Danny Welbeck headed Unitedai??i??s goal in the first leg from a corner, exposing Sergio Ramosai??i??s weakness in the very basic art of marking. Ramos is a fine player in many ways, and his ability to step into midfield is a clear asset when Real are playing sides who mass defences against them, but he is a vulnerability defensively. Itai??i??s not just United who have exposed Realai??i??s weakness against set-plays; again and again over the past couple of seasons it has been a problem for them.
Van Persie showed in the first leg how his movement could exploit space behind Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane and while they will probably play deeper than they did in the Bernabeu, that will still be there. And if intelligent movement is a key, then it could be that Danny Welbeck comes in on the left ai??i?? making sure of course to pressure Arbeloa.
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