Italy will welcome Turkiye to the Stadio Dall’Ara in Bologna on Monday evening as both sides look to strengthen their positions in League A Group 1 of the UEFA Nations League.
The Azzurri enter the contest with renewed confidence after a convincing victory over Türkiye in Bursa, followed by a hard-earned draw against France. Turkiye, meanwhile, are in serious trouble at the bottom of the group and arrive without several of their most important attacking players. For Roberto Mancini, this is an opportunity to build on the encouraging signs of his second spell in charge. For Vincenzo Montella, it could be a defining night.
Mancini’s return to the Italy dugout did not begin perfectly as his second spell started with a disappointing defeat to Belgium, but the response since then has been considerably more encouraging. Italy produced their most convincing performance of the campaign in Bursa, overwhelming Turkiye 4-1 after racing into a three-goal lead before half time.
The performance was particularly encouraging because it came with a younger group of players making their mark. Pio Esposito and Michael Kayode were among the scorers, while Alessandro Bastoni also continued his unexpected run in front of goal.
Italy then travelled to Paris and produced another impressive performance, holding France to a draw despite conceding first. Gianluigi Donnarumma was outstanding, making seven saves, while the Azzurri demonstrated considerably greater defensive resilience.
That result leaves Italy third in Group 1 with four points, two behind Belgium and three behind France. With France due to visit Milan next month before Italy travel to Belgium to conclude their campaign, maximum points against Türkiye are extremely important.
Türkiye’s situation is considerably more concerning as after winning successive promotions through the Nations League divisions, the Crescent-Stars are discovering just how difficult life in League A can be. They have lost all three of their matches in this campaign, beginning with a 1-0 defeat to France before suffering the heavy loss to Italy and then a 3-0 defeat to Belgium.
That run leaves Montella’s team bottom of the group without a single point and Turkiye have now lost five of their last six matches, placing increasing pressure on Montella. The timing of Monday’s fixture could hardly be worse because they are missing several of their most influential players.
Arda Guler is suspended, while Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz are injured. Baris Alper Yilmaz is also suspended, leaving them significantly short of attacking creativity and experience. Recent history also favours the hosts as Italy have won three of their last four meetings with Turkiye, including a memorable 3-0 victory during their successful Euro 2020 campaign.
Mancini appears to be gradually integrating younger players into an experienced squad, whereas Montella has to find solutions with several of his most influential players unavailable. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Team News & Tactics
Italy
Italy could make several changes despite their impressive recent performances. Roberto Mancini made only two alterations for the previous fixture, bringing Riccardo Calafiori and Moise Kean into the starting XI, but further rotation could now be considered.
Pio Esposito remains in contention to start alongside his brother Sebastiano Esposito. Pio has already made an impact at international level, scoring at a rate of roughly one goal every two games across his first 12 appearances.
Antonio Vergara also impressed after coming off the bench on his debut, while Gianluca Scamacca and Moise Kean provide alternative options in attack. Experienced players could return as well, with Nicolo Barella and Gianluca Mancini among those pushing for recalls.
Italy’s likely 4-3-3 gives Mancini plenty of flexibility as Tonali can provide the deeper platform while Barella and Frattesi are allowed to push forward. Frattesi’s late runs into the penalty area could be especially dangerous against Turkiye’s three-man defence. The full-backs will also be important as Kayode and Calafiori can provide width, allowing the wingers to move into the half-spaces and create numerical superiority around the away side’s midfield.
Pio Esposito’s physical presence gives Italy a different option from the more mobile Kean. If Türkiye defend deeply, his ability to occupy both centre-backs and attack crosses could become valuable. The main tactical objective should be to move Türkiye’s back three from side to side before attacking the gaps.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Vergara, Pio Esposito, Kean
Türkiye
Arda Guler is suspended after picking up a booking against Belgium, while Baris Alper Yilmaz is also unavailable through suspension. The visitors are further weakened by injuries to Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz, removing two of their most important creative players.
Merih Demiral is expected to captain the side once again in Calhanoglu’s absence. Turkiye should retain their 3-4-2-1 formation, with Cakir in goal and Ozan Kabak, Merih Demiral, and Zeki Celik forming the three-man defence. Ferdi Kadioglu, Salih Ozcan, Ismail Yuksek, and Eren Elmali should operate across midfield, while Yunus Akgun and Kerem Akturkoglu play behind Deniz Gul.
Turkiye’s biggest challenge is replacing the creativity lost through their absences as without Calhanoglu and Guler, they lack two players who can slow the game down, receive under pressure and create chances through the centre. Thi could force Montella to adopt a more direct approach.
Turkiye may look to use Akturkoglu and Akgun as transition outlets, particularly when Italy’s full-backs push forward. The two attacking midfielders will need to move quickly into the channels rather than staying centrally, where Italy could outnumber them.
Defensively, the three-man structure could help the visitors protect the centre, but it risks leaving their wing-backs isolated against Italy’s wide players. The first priority should therefore be to stay in the game during the opening half as another early concession could force Turkiye into an open contest that would suit Italy considerably more.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Cakir; Kabak, Demiral, Celik; Kadioglu, Ozcan, Yuksek, Elmali; Akgun, Akturkoglu; Gul
Key Stats
- Italy have won three of their last four meetings with Türkiye.
- Turkiye have lost five of their last six matches.
- Italy put four goals past Türkiye in their previous meeting.
- Pio Esposito has scored at a rate of one goal every two international appearances.
- Turkiye have lost all three of their Nations League matches.
Player to Watch
Pio Esposito
The young striker has already made an excellent impression at international level, scoring six goals in his first 12 appearances. He was also on the scoresheet in Italy’s emphatic victory over Turkiye in Bursa. His physical presence gives Italy an important focal point in the final third, but he is more than simply a target man. Esposito’s movement can occupy the centre-backs and create space for runners such as Frattesi and Barella to attack.
Turkiye’s depleted midfield could also leave their back three exposed, particularly if Italy move the ball quickly from the wings into central areas. With the visitors missing several of their most important defensive and creative players, Esposito could receive the service needed to make another decisive contribution.
Prediction
Italy 3-0 Turkiye
Everything points towards Italy entering this match as strong favourites. Roberto Mancini’s side have shown improvement in their last two fixtures, combining the attacking quality of their 4-1 victory over Turkiye with the defensive resilience displayed against France.
The away side, meanwhile, are bottom of the group, have lost five of their last six matches and are missing Arda Guler, Hakan Calhanoglu, and Kenan Yildiz. The visitors should make this competitive for periods, but Italy’s midfield control and greater attacking depth should eventually tell.