Atletico Madrid vs Malaga: Preview and Prediction

Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid will kick-start their La Liga campaign with a home game against newly promoted Malaga on Wednesday.

After a disappointing 2025/26 La Liga campaign, Atletico Madrid will look to get off to a perfect start in the new campaign when they host Malaga, who will be looking to cause an upset in their first outing since their return to the top flight.

While Diego Simeone’s men were quite impressive in cup competitions last season, they were never really in the league title race. They ended up finishing fourth with 69 points in their 38 outings, with 21 wins, 6 draws, and 11 defeats.

They were 25 points off the top at the end, something that certainly was not expected. However, that is a story of the past. Having added a few new faces to the mix, Atletico Madrid will be hoping they can fight for the title this time around. The game against Malaga should be a comfortable affair for them, but they can’t really take things lightly.

Meanwhile, Malaga finished fourth in the second division but managed to work their way into the top flight. They defeated Las Palmas in the playoff semi-final and took down Almeria in the final to secure promotion.

Having added only a couple of new faces to their squad, it will be interesting to see how Malaga cope with the demands of the top flight. For them, the priority is to survive, but it certainly won’t be easy. Starting their campaign against Atletico will be challenging, but it will give them a fair idea of what to expect going forward. The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at both teams and tries to predict the tactics they could deploy.

Team News & Tactics

Atletico Madrid

Alexander Sorloth is yet to recover from a muscle injury, while summer signings Cristian Romero and Morten Hjulmand are major doubts for this fixture and are unlikely to be risked here.

Atletico Madrid are expected to line up in a 3-5-2 formation for the first fixture of the new campaign, with Jan Oblak starting between the sticks. Marc Pubill, Robin Le Normand and David Hancko should form the back three, providing defensive solidity and composure in possession.

In midfield, Marcos Llorente and Alex Grimaldo are expected to operate as the wing-backs, providing width and support at both ends of the pitch. Jhonny Cardoso, Koke, and Pablo Barrios should form the central trio, with the experienced Koke tasked with controlling the tempo.

Further forward, Ademola Lookman and Lee Kang-in are expected to lead the line. The duo will look to utilise their pace, creativity and movement to cause problems for the opposition defence.

Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Oblak; Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko; Llorente, Cardoso, Koke, Barrios, Grimaldo; Lee, Lookman

Malaga

The visitors will be without quite a few players for their opener, as Adrian Nino (thigh), Diego Murillo (cruciate ligament), Fernando Calero (broken rib), Aaron Ochoa (suspended), and Carlos Dotor (knee injury) are all out.

Newly promoted Malaga are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation, with Alfonso Herrero starting between the sticks. Carlos Puga and Jose Salinas should feature as the full-backs, while Angel Recio is likely to pair up with Einar Galilea in the heart of the defence.

As for the midfield unit, Dani Lorenzo, Izan Merino, and Rafa should form the central trio, with the three tasked with providing defensive stability while also helping Malaga progress the ball at every possible opportunity.

Further forward, David Larrubia and Joaquin Munoz are expected to operate on the flanks, providing width, pace and creativity. Chupete should lead the line and will be tasked with making the most of the limited opportunities that come his way.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Herrero; Puga, Recio, Galilea, Salinas; Lorenzo, Merino, Rodriguez; Larrubia, Chupete, Munoz

Key Stats

Player to Watch

Ademola Lookman

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Lookman will be one of Atletico Madrid’s biggest attacking threats this season, having already shown his quality since arriving at the club. He scored nine goals and also bagged four assists in 24 appearances in the second half of last season. It was quite an impact from a player who had to adjust to the demands of Simeone after a mid-season move.

His ability to beat defenders, carry the ball into dangerous areas and contribute in front of goal makes him a constant threat in the final third. With the Nigerian now fully settled and expected to play a key role in Atletico Madrid’s attack, he could have a major say in the outcome of this fixture.

Prediction

Atletico Madrid 3-0 Malaga

Atletico Madrid should have far too much quality for Malaga, particularly in the final third. Simeone’s men are expected to dominate possession and create enough chances to take control of the game early.

Malaga could make things difficult with a compact defensive setup, but Atletico’s midfield and attacking quality should eventually prove decisive. The visitors’ defensive absences could make matters even more difficult, especially if Atletico manage to move the ball quickly and stretch their backline. The Hard Tackle expects the hosts to begin their campaign with a comfortable 3-0 win.

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