SL Benfica vs SSC Napoli: Preview and Prediction

SL Benfica vs SSC Napoli: Preview and Prediction ahead of the UEFA Champions League clash midweek on Wednesday night..

SL Benfica vs SSC Napoli: Preview and Prediction ahead of the UEFA Champions League clash midweek on Wednesday night..

Jose Mourinho will face a familiar for in Antonio Conte when Napoli visit Benfica on Wednesday night.

Two familiar rivals in the dugout will take centre stage on Wednesday night, as SL Benfica welcome SSC Napoli to the Estadio da Luz in a crucial Champions League encounter. Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte, two of football’s most decorated and combustible tacticians, will once again face off, each desperately needing points to revive their European campaigns.

Benfica enter the fixture still searching for their first home win of the Champions League season, a worrying trend for a club traditionally dominant in Lisbon. However, Mourinho finally secured his first continental victory with the Eagles last month, ending a dismal three-match losing streak without scoring.

A composed performance in Amsterdam saw Samuel Dahl and Leandro Barreiro net either side of the game, giving Benfica a lifeline in a tightly contested league-phase table. Despite the relief of that victory, Benfica remain outside the playoff positions and carry a heavy burden into the final three matchdays.

With daunting fixtures against Real Madrid still to come, the Eagles may need a near-perfect run to keep their European dreams alive. Adding further intrigue is the history between the managers: Conte and Mourinho have never enjoyed a warm relationship, and in eight managerial duels the Portuguese coach has only emerged victorious twice, most recently in the 2018 FA Cup final.

Benfica warmed up for the Napoli clash with a heated Lisbon derby at the weekend, drawing 1-1 with Sporting CP thanks to Georgiy Sudakov’s clinical second-half equaliser. Yet the point did little to improve their domestic outlook, leaving them three behind Sporting and eight behind league-leaders FC Porto.

More significantly, it extended a troubling run in Europe: Benfica have won just one of their last twelve home matches in the Champions League. For Mourinho, Wednesday feels perilously close to must-win territory. Napoli, on the other hand, arrive in Portugal with momentum finally swinging their way.

Conte’s men sit inside the qualification places after five matchdays and hold a four-point cushion over Benfica. Historically, the head-to-head also favours the Italian giants: Napoli lead 3-1, including a vital away win in Lisbon during the 2016 group stage. Meanwhile, the Partenopei’s campaign began inconsistently.

A win over Sporting was sandwiched between damaging defeats to Manchester City and PSV Eindhoven, the latter a humbling 6-2 collapse. But since their stalemate with Eintracht Frankfurt, Napoli have engineered a remarkable recovery. Scott McTominay’s decisive strike against Qarabag last month sparked a five-match winning streak across all competitions, a run built on tactical reshaping forced by an injury crisis.

That resurgence peaked on Sunday evening, when a Rasmus Hojlund brace helped Conte’s side beat Juventus at the Stadio Maradona, sealing an unbeaten calendar year at home and reclaiming the top spot in Serie A. With confidence flowing again, Napoli travel to Lisbon eyeing a statement victory against their manager’s long-standing rival.

However, a major warning sign hangs over their European away form. Napoli have lost each of their last four Champions League away games, conceding a staggering fifteen goals in the process. Even an out-of-sorts Benfica will believe there is vulnerability to exploit. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.

Team News & Tactics

SL Benfica

Benfica enter this crucial European fixture still managing several long-term injury absences. Alexander Bah remains sidelined with an ACL injury, while Bruma continues his recovery from an Achilles tendon issue. Dodi Lukebakio is also unavailable due to an ankle injury, ruling the winger out of Mourinho’s plans once again. Aside from these absentees, Jose Mourinho is expected to have a full squad at his disposal.

There is no suspension affecting Benfica in the Champions League, even though Gianluca Prestianni was sent off in the weekend Lisbon derby. His ban applies only to domestic competition, meaning the young forward remains eligible for selection on Wednesday. In attack, Mourinho will continue relying on Vangelis Pavlidis, who is searching for his first Champions League goal since Matchday 1 but remains in red-hot domestic form, sitting atop the Primeira Liga scoring charts with ten goals.

Benfica will also be well aware of the threat posed by their former winger David Neres, now a crucial component in Napoli’s new 3-4-2-1 system. Neres scored 17 goals across 83 appearances during his time in Lisbon and, reunited with a familiar pitch, may cause the Eagles plenty of trouble.

Jose Mourinho is expected to deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, maintaining structural balance and control in midfield while giving his attacking trio licence to create. Anatoliy Trubin will start in goal. The back four should consist of Amar Dedic at right-back, Nicolas Otamendi and Antonio Silva as the central defensive pairing, and Samuel Dahl operating at left-back.

In midfield, Richard Rios and Enzo Barrenechea will form the double pivot, tasked with regaining possession, disrupting Napoli’s transitions, and initiating Benfica’s buildup play. The attacking midfield line is set to feature Fredrik Aursnes on the right, Leandro Barreiro centrally, and Georgiy Sudakov on the left, offering energy, ball progression, and late runs into the box.

Leading the line, Vangelis Pavlidis will operate as the lone striker, aiming to convert Benfica’s buildup work into goals and exploit any space behind Napoli’s defensive line.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Trubin; Dedic, Otamendi, Silva, Dahl; Rios, Barrenechea; Aursnes, Barreiro, Sudakov; Pavlidis

SSC Napoli

Napoli travel to Lisbon with a heavily depleted squad, particularly in midfield, where Antonio Conte is without several key figures. Scott McTominay, now indispensable due to the injury crisis, is expected to start once again. The Scotsman has been in exceptional continental form, scoring three goals in his last three Champions League appearances, and his box-to-box presence will be vital.

Conte remains severely restricted by absences across multiple areas of the pitch. Romelu Lukaku is unavailable due to injury, and fellow Belgian Kevin De Bruyne also continues his rehabilitation from a long-term setback. In midfield, Billy Gilmour, Stanislav Lobotka and Frank Anguissa are all sidelined, stretching Napoli’s resources thin in the central areas.

On the flanks, Miguel Gutierrez is ruled out with an ankle issue, and first-choice goalkeeper Alex Meret remains unavailable, meaning Vanja Milinkovic-Savic retains his place between the posts. There are no suspensions affecting Napoli ahead of this match.

With so many enforced changes, Conte must maintain stability through the spine of the team while relying on depth players in supporting roles. His task will be to balance defensive discipline with the sharpness needed to exploit Benfica in transition.

Antonio Conte is expected to retain the successful 3-4-2-1 system that has helped stabilise Napoli in recent weeks. Vanja Milinkovic-Savic starts in goal. The back three will likely feature Sam Beukema on the right of defence, Amir Rrahmani as the central organiser, and Alessandro Buongiorno on the left, providing athletic cover and ball progression.

In the wing-back roles, Giovanni Di Lorenzo should start on the right, offering vertical surges and defensive leadership, while Leonardo Spinazzola will operate on the left, providing width and crossing threat. With Napoli’s midfield so depleted, the central pairing is expected to consist of Scott McTominay and Eljif Elmas, with both players required to contribute defensively and support the attack.

Ahead of them, the creative duo of Noa Lang and David Neres will occupy the two attacking-midfield roles, drifting into half-spaces to feed the striker and threaten Benfica’s back line. Leading the attack, Rasmus Hojlund starts as the lone forward, using his pace and movement to stretch defenders and create openings.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Milinkovic-Savic; Beukema, Rrahmani, Buongiorno; Di Lorenzo, McTominay, Elmas, Spinazzola; Lang, Neres; Højlund

Key Stats

Player to Watch

Rasmus Hojlund

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Hojlund arrives in Lisbon as Napoli’s most decisive attacking force, and his recent form makes him the clear standout player to watch. The Danish striker has thrived under Antonio Conte’s new 3-4-2-1 structure, benefiting from improved service and more direct support from the attacking midfielders behind him.

Hojlund’s confidence is soaring after scoring a brace in Napoli’s vital league win over Juventus, adding to a growing list of high-impact performances in recent weeks. His blend of pace, physicality, and relentless movement has made him a nightmare for centre-backs, and he has also begun to show more composure in his decision-making inside the box.

In the Champions League, Hojlund has already demonstrated his value, offering constant penetration against higher-calibre defences. Against a Benfica back line led by veteran Nicolas Otamendi, experienced but susceptible to pace and movement, Hojlund’s ability to attack space could be match-defining.

Whether Napoli seek to build patiently or strike in transition, the 21-year-old will be their primary focal point. If he maintains his sharpness in front of goal, he could be the difference-maker in a game with huge implications for qualification.

Prediction

SL Benfica 1-2 SSC Napoli

With both teams under immense pressure and carrying very different types of momentum, this match-up feels finely balanced, but Napoli enter the contest with a more coherent identity and superior recent form.

Benfica have struggled at home in the Champions League, winning just once in their last 12 European matches at the Estadio da Luz. Even under Jose Mourinho, defensive solidity has not fully returned, and the team often lacks fluency in the final third. Their reliance on Vangelis Pavlidis for goals could become problematic against a disciplined Napoli back three that has tightened up significantly under Antonio Conte.

Napoli, despite their extensive injury list, arrive with confidence after a five-game winning streak across all competitions. The change to a 3-4-2-1 system has unlocked both defensive stability and attacking sharpness, with Rasmus Hojlund and David Neres emerging as decisive players. Scott McTominay’s form in Europe has also added a surprising goal threat from midfield.

Benfica will push hard early, urged on by the home crowd, but Napoli’s structure, transitional threat, and superior form give them the edge.

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