Croatia will be eager to get at least a point to confirm their status as group runners-up, as they host Portugal, who have already qualified as group winners.
Croatia are entering the final group game against Portugal with the hope of getting out with at least a point. A draw would be enough for Zlatko Dalic’s men to progress as group runners-up. The result in midweek against Scotland did put them in a tricky situation, as the Tartan Army took a slender win at Hampden Park.
Petar Sucic’s red card just before half-time did not help Dalic’s men in any way, although it did push Scotland until the end. A late John McGinn strike undid Croatia, as they were left with seven points after five games. So, they need a result to progress cleanly on Monday.
The situation warrants Croatia either beating Portugal on Monday or at least hoping Poland gets a result against Scotland. Croatia’s superior head-to-head record to Poland does give them an advantage, and should Scotland win and end up with a superior goal difference over Dalic’s men, especially if Croatia lose, the hosts will not be relegated automatically. Hence, a draw or a Poland win seems imperative here.
Meanwhile, Roberto Martinez used the midweek result over Poland as an opportunity to send some of his players back to their clubs. The 5-1 thrashing of Poland ensured Portugal were confirmed as group winners, as Cristiano Ronaldo inspired yet another win.
The Seleccao have only dropped points to Scotland in this group phase, and they will want to finish this stage on a high note. Martinez will target a win on Monday to keep momentum and ensure his side is in a good mental space with their form, as this will still be a tough away game at Croatia.
Team News & Tactics
Croatia
Croatia will be without attacking midfielder Petar Sucic ahead of this crunch clash with Portugal following his sending-off against Scotland last week. One of Mario Pasalic or Nikola Vlasic should be in line to replace him in the starting lineup.
Croatia will welcome back Ante Budimir and goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic after they serve dtheir respective suspensions. The latter is set to replace Dominik Kotarski between the sticks. Budimir could start the game on the bench, as Andrej Kramaric is likely to prefer to start in the attacking position.
There is an injury problem with Kristijan Jakic, as the defender came off injured in the latter minutes of Croatia’s loss to Scotland, meaning Marin Pongracic should be in line to replace him at right-back. Duje Caleta-Car, Josip Sutalo, and Josko Gvardiol are in line to start in that backline alongside Pongracic.
Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic are the best bets to keep their central midfield positions intact, while Pasalic will continue in the attacking midfield role. With Kramaric leading the line, Pasalic and Ivan Perisic will support him from the wide areas.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Livakovic; Pongracic, Caleta-Car, Sutalo, Gvardiol; Modric, Kovacic; L. Sucic, Pasalic, Perisic; Kramaric
Portugal
Roberto Martinez will likely experiment with his squad ahead of the clash with Croatia. He has already sent at least four key stars back to their respective clubs following the win over Poland. With Portugal already confirmed as group winners, their clash with Croatia is a dead rubber as far as Martinez is concerned.
Cristiano Ronaldo, Pedro Neto, Bernardo Silva, and Bruno Fernandes have left the squad, with the latter suspended for this clash after accumulating yellow cards. Martinez has seemingly promoted Fabio Silva and Sporting CP winger Geovany Quenda from the Under-21s, while Tiago Djalo is also expected to make an appearance.
Martinez will also likely give Nuno Tavares his full debut for the team after he made his first appearance from the bench against Poland and picked up a yellow card. Francisco Conceicao will likely replace Neto on the right wing, while Francisco Trincao and Joao Felix should come in the other attacking positions, as Fabio Silva leads the line.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Rui Silva; Cancelo, Djalo, Araujo, Tavares; Vitinha, Neves; Conceicao, Felix, Trincao; Fabio Silva
Key Stats
- Croatia need a point to progress as a group that is runners up.
- Croatia have lost seven of their last nine games against Portugal in all competitions.
- Croatia’s three-point lead and a superior head-to-head over Poland will prevent an automatic relegation.
- In this fixture back in September, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal.
- Portugal have lost only one of their last ten UEFA Nations League away games.
Player to Watch
Joao Felix
The Chelsea man has not been a first-choice operator for club or country, and he will be desperate to change that equation when given the chance. That is not to say his minutes have dried up, but he certainly needs a massive upgrade when it comes to featuring in an important role.
With the departures of several vital attackers ahead of this final group game against Croatia, Felix will get his chance in the starting lineup. This is also an opportunity for the Chelsea man to show his worth. All eyes will be fixed on him in Croatia, as his performances could significantly affect how important he can be to his club and country.
Prediction
Croatia 1-1 Portugal
Portugal will come into this one not with the intention of taking the handbrake off but for Roberto Martinez to gauge the talents of his fringe players. Many of those will get a chance from the start, which does depreciate the overall quality of this site, meaning the hosts could be in with an advantage.
Zlatko Dalic will want superb performances to quash the doubters and seal their place as group runners-up. In truth, Croatia could work hard to get a draw; a point would be enough, and the game could end with a similar result, with both teams sharing the spoils.