France will have to win by two goals against Italy away from home on the final matchday to claim the top spot in League A Group 2
France and Italy have both secured a spot in the quarter-finals of the ongoing edition of the UEFA Nations League, and they will square up against each other at San Siro on Sunday to decide who wins the group.
The home team sit comfortably at the top with 13 points in their five outings thanks to four wins and a draw. The Azzurri secured a 1-0 win over Belgium in their previous outing to strengthen their position at the top.
Luciano Spalletti’s men will be looking to remain unbeaten when they host France, having defeated them 3-1 in their last meeting. The visitors are second in the group, and they were just a point behind Italy prior to the penultimate game.
But, France ended up dropping points against bottom-placed Israel as they played out a disappointing 0-0 draw. Now, they find themselves three points behind Italy and will have to secure a win by two goals to take the top spot.
It promises to be an exciting clash between two European heavyweights. While both have a star-studded squad, Italy might have the upper hand given the kind of run they have been in this competition. The Hard Tackle takes a close look at both teams and tries to predict the tactics they could put to use.
Team News & Tactics
Italy
The home team will be without the services of Samuele Ricci, Riccardo Calafiori, Gianluca Scamacca, and Giorgio Scalvini. Italy could look to make a few changes to their starting eleven against France as they have already made it to the next round of the competition.
The hosts will stick to the 3-5-1-1 formation, where Gianluigi Donnarumma will be in goal. Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Buongiorno, and Alessandro Bastoni will form the back three. They will look for a clean sheet and will have the support of Andrea Cambiaso and Federico Dimarco, who will feature as the wing-backs.
Manuel Locatelli should feature in the number six role with Sandro Tonali and Davide Frattesi in his support. The trio will look to control the tempo, while Nicolo Barella will continue to feature in an attacking role behind in-form striker Moise Kean, who should start ahead of Mateo Retegui.
Probable Lineup (3-5-1-1): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Locatelli, Tonali, Dimarco; Barella; Kean
France
Kylian Mbappe was not called up to the national team for this round of fixtures, while Ousmane Dembele, Wesley Fofana, Loic Bade, and Aurelien Tchouameni remain on the sidelines. Kingsley Coman was called up to replace Dembele. While he will be in contention to start, Michael Olise will most likely feature on the right flank.
France will continue to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, where Mike Maignan will be in goal. Jules Kounde and Theo Hernandez should be the full-backs, with Ibrahima Konate and the highly sought-after William Saliba in the heart of the defence.
N’Golo Kante partner Adrien Rabiot in the centre of the park. They will form the double pivot and will look to protect the backline as well as provide a stable base to attack from. Warren Zaire-Emery should take up the number 10 role, with Olise and Bradley Barcola on the flanks. Marcus Thuram should continue to lead the line for France against Italy.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kounde, Konate, Saliba, Hernandez; Kante, Rabiot; Olise, Zaire-Emery, Barcola; Thuram
Key Stats
- Italy have been unbeaten in the UEFA Nations League (W4 D1).
- France started the competition with a defeat but have managed to remain unbeaten in their last four outings (W3 D1).
- Both Italy and France have already made it to the quarter-finals of the UEFA Nations League.
- The Azzurri need to avoid a defeat by two goals or more to claim the top spot.
- The reverse fixture between the two teams ended 3-1 in favour of Italy.
Player to Watch
Moise Kean
The 24-year-old Italian striker had a horror 2023/24 season as he failed to find the back of the net. However, he has completely turned around his fortunes, having scored 11 goals in his 14 outings this term. Kean has got back to his best following the move to Fiorentina. He will most likely start against France and will be eager to leave his mark on the International stage.
Prediction
Italy 2-2 France
Italy will be the favourites heading into this fixture given the kind of form they have been in and the fact that they thrashed France in the reverse fixture. But, Les Bleus won’t go down without a fight.
Instead, Didier Deschamps’s charges will go all out to win this game and claim the top stop. It could end up being a closely fought encounter between two world-class teams. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-2 draw between the European heavyweights.