Portugal have an opportunity to get closer to sealing a top-two place in their group as they host a Poland side that is still in the hunt.
Roberto Martinez will be pleased with his side’s performances throughout the UEFA Nations League A campaign. Portugal did lose their 100% record in the drab goalless draw away to Scotland on the most recent matchday, but they are inching closer to a top-two finish as they get set to host Poland at Estadio do Dragao.
In fact, they just need a single point to confirm a top-two finish, as Martinez will rather aim for all three points when they host Poland. Portugal has not reached the Final of the Nations League since its inaugural campaign, and they certainly want to lay their hands on the grand prize once more.
There will be some concerns about their performances against Scotland recently, as the attackers spurned plenty of clear-cut chances. However, given the quality Martinez possesses in his squad, it’s safe to assume Portugal are overwhelming favourites to win this one and repeat the performances away at Poland on matchday three, when they beat their host then.
Poland have struggled but has kept itself in the fight to qualify as they head to Portugal for what may be a crucial clash for Michal Probierz. The manager is their third in recent times following Czeslaw Michniewicz and Fernando Santos’ reign, which did bring plenty of criticisms. However, there’s a ray of optimism under Probierz, as Poland are still in the fight to finish in the top two.
Despite languishing in third spot, Poland have still scored the same amount of goals as rivals Portugal and Croatia. The latter is someone they need to worry about as they head into the final two games of the group. This trip to Portugal has become a must-win situation for the Polish players.
Salvaging a point against Portugal will likely keep Poland in contention for a top-two finish, although a loss will see them eliminated regardless of Croatia’s result, given how poor Poland’s head-to-head record is in this group. Hence, Probierz will want to see a much-improved side, especially his defensive ranks, as they are tasked with stopping some of the most lethal attackers in Europe.
Team News & Tactics
Portugal
Martinez will have to make some strong defensive selections ahead of this clash with Poland. He’s missing his two key centre-backs, Ruben Dias and Goncalo Inacio. The pair have stayed out of contention due to injuries, which does throw the focus on Antonio Silva to start despite the Benfica man not playing regularly for his club these days.
Incidentally, with his crucial duo absent, Martinez might have to give a debut to Tomas Araujo, Silva’s Benfica teammate in the heart of the defence. Martinez has also called up Nuno Tavares for the first time to the Portugal setup, although there are doubts whether the Lazio man will oust Nuno Mendes from the left-back spot for now.
Diogo Dalot will continue at right back, with Diogo Costa firmly settled in as Portugal’s first-choice keeper. Martinez is also without some key attackers, Diogo Jota and Goncalo Ramos, while midfielders Ruben Neves, Matheus Nunes, and Pedro Goncalves are also out of this round of international fixtures.
Bruno Fernandes, Joao Neves, and Bernardo Silva are pencilled in for midfield roles. In the attacking third, Pedro Neto, Rafael Leao, and Cristiano Ronaldo complete the front three setup.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Costa; Dalot, Antonio Silva, Araujo, Mendes; Bernardo Silva, Joao Neves, Fernandes; Neto, Ronaldo, Leao
Poland
Given the importance of this clash away at Portugal and the next one, Probierz will be disappointed not to have star man Robert Lewandowski in his squad. The Barcelona striker pulled out with a lower back problem, which will see Poland significantly weakened in the attacking third.
They are also missing Arkadiusz Milik for the time being, meaning Karol Swiderski and Krzysztof will battle for a starting spot to lead the line. There are further absentees for Probierz, as midfielders Jakub Piotrowski and Kacper Kozlowski are also missing.
Poland will continue to be without Pawel Dawidowicz following his injury against Croatia during the previous international break. Ideally, Probierz should start with Swiderski up front alongside Krzysztof Piatek, with a midfield-five taking shape behind the two strikers against Portugal.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Bulka; Piatkowski, Bednarek, Kiwior; Frankowski, S Szymanski, Moder, Zielinski, Zalewski; Piatek, Swiderski
Key Stats
- Portugal are undefeated in their last 6 matches against Poland in all competitions.
- Portugal are unbeaten in their Nations League group.
- Poland will be eliminated with a loss.
- Poland have scored the same number of goals in this group as Portugal and Croatia.
- Poland have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 9 games across all competitions.
Player to Watch
Pedro Neto
There’s plenty of competition for places in Portugal’s frontline, with this particular international break offering a big chance to the likes of Neto. The winger is coming off an impressive performance against Arsenal, where he equalised with a screamer. Over the last few weeks, he has grown into a key star for Chelsea while showing his ability to play well on either flank.
With the current squad missing a few key attackers, this international break could be the time when Neto could make a solid claim to become a permanent fixture in future starting lineups. Hence, this Polan clash is more important.
Prediction
Portugal 3-1 Poland
The Polish side are coming into this clash under pressure to win or at least draw in the hope of staying alive in the competition. Meanwhile, Poland is also without talisman Lewandowski, which will create problems for them in the attacking sense.
Portugal, on the other hand, are inches away from sealing a top-two place, as Martinez will know a win would take them ever so closer to sealing a top berth. Hence, for Portugal, it’s vital to win and allow themselves into a pressure situation with Croatia later, meaning they will likely use the home advantage and take a big win against Poland.