Mexico will face Ecuador in a must-win clash for both sides as the Copa America 2024 knockout rounds beckon.
Mexico and Ecuador will lock horns at State Farm Stadium on Sunday, with both teams eyeing a place in the quarter-finals of the Copa America. With each side holding three points, Ecuador’s superior goal difference of +1, courtesy of their 3-1 victory over Jamaica, places them slightly ahead. Meanwhile, Mexico’s narrow 1-0 loss to Venezuela leaves them with a goal differential of zero.
A defeat on Matchday 2 has left Jaime Lozano’s Mexico on the cusp of elimination. They must secure a win to extend their Copa America campaign beyond the group stage. Failure to do so would result in their third consecutive group-stage exit from the tournament.
Historically, Mexico have struggled in their final group fixtures in recent Copa America appearances. Their loss to Venezuela marked the first time since 2015 that they were held goalless in a group stage match, highlighting their offensive challenges. Additionally, Mexico have suffered six defeats in their last seven encounters with CONMEBOL opponents, including consecutive losses by a combined 5-0 margin.
Mexico’s recent form against Ecuador has also been less than stellar, with no wins and no goals in their last two meetings. However, they have a favourable historical record in this tournament, winning four of their five all-time Copa America clashes against Ecuador.
Ecuador, on the other hand, bounced back from a half-time setback against Venezuela to claim their first points of the competition. Felix Sanchez Bas’s side has won three of their last four matches across all competitions, positioning themselves well to make the quarter-finals for the third time in the past four tournaments.
A loss to Mexico would be the only scenario preventing Ecuador from advancing to the knockout stage consecutively for the first time this century. Historically, Ecuador has not lost their final group stage match since a 4-2 defeat to Brazil in 2011. They have demonstrated resilience, coming from behind to secure draws in their last two Matchday 3 fixtures in 2019 and 2021. The Hard Tackle delves into the potential elevens and tactics for this clash.
Team News & Tactics
Mexico
Mexico will be without their skipper Edson Alvarez, who was taken off with what appeared to be a hamstring strain against Jamaica. Meanwhile, Santiago Gimenez and Alexis Vega picked up yellow cards in the 1-0 loss to Venezuela, putting them at risk of missing the quarter-finals should Mexico qualify.
They have an otherwise fully-fit squad at their disposal and are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation on the night. Julio Jose Gonzalez should start in goal, behind the back four of Jorge Sanchez, Cesar Montes, Johan Vasquez and Gerardo Arteaga.
Luis Romo and Luis Chavez should form the double pivot, with the trio of Uriel Antuna, Orbelin Pineda, and Julian Quinones. Santiago Gimenez should lead the line as he bids to break his duck in this year’s competition.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Gonzalez; Sanchez, Montes, Vasquez, Arteaga; Romo, Chavez; Antuna, Pineda, Quinoes; Gimenez
Ecuador
Ecuador will welcome back captain Enner Valencia, for this match after he sat out the second game against Jamaica following a sending-off against Venezuela on Matchday 1. His return will give Ecuador an added boost in the critical clash.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Sarmiento and wonderkid Kendry Paez are both still at risk of suspension in the quarter-finals should they pick up a caution on the night. But given the importance of the clash against Mexico, they are unlikely to be rested or benched.
A 4-2-3-1 formation appears to be the way forward, with Alexander Dominguez in goal. He should be protected by the back four of Angelo Preciado, Felix Torres, Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapie.
Alan Franco and Moises Caicedo will hold the fort in the middle of the park with John Yeboah, Kendry Paez and Jeremy Sarmiento pushing forward. Enner Valencia should lead the line in Enner Valencia’s absence.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Dominguez; Preciado, Torres, Pacho, Hincapie; Franco, M. Caicedo; Yeboah, Paez, Sarmiento; Valencia
Key Stats
- Ecuador have won their last 13 matches in which they scored more than once, with their last loss in such a scenario coming against Mexico in June 2019.
- Ecuador have won just four of their 26 clashes against Mexico, losing 17 in the process.
- Ecuador have kept just five clean sheets in their 26 clashes against Mexico.
- Mexico have managed just seven clean sheets against Ecuador in their history.
Player to Watch
Kendry Paez
Paez will undoubtedly once again be the beating heart of Ecuador’s attack and will be buzzing following his goal against Jamaica last time out. Donning the number 10 jersey, the teenager will also have the veteran Enner Valencia ahead of him as he aims to pick the Mexican defence.
Just 17, Paez has the world at his feet and this summer’s tournament could prove to be his breakout campaign at the international stage. Another solid showing against Mexico will certainly see more people sit up and take notice of his talents.
Prediction
Mexico 1-1 Ecuador
Given their recent form and historical context, this match promises to be a tightly contested affair. Mexico’s urgency to avoid elimination and Ecuador’s consistent performances suggest a closely fought battle.
Both teams have much to play for, and while Mexico’s need for a win might push them forward, Ecuador’s resilience and recent form could see them secure the point they need to progress. This encounter could ultimately end in a draw, with Ecuador advancing to the knockout stages.