Nottingham Forest need just one point to guarantee their safety against already relegated Burnley at Turf Moor.
Nottingham Forest, aiming to secure Premier League survival, travel to Turf Moor on Sunday to face Burnley, who are already relegated. The Tricky Trees narrowly missed out on securing their safety last weekend with a dramatic 3-2 loss to Chelsea, while Burnley confirmed their drop to the Championship following a 2-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur.
Burnley’s manager Vincent Kompany has earned recognition for his commitment to an attacking philosophy. But the Clarets’ season has been plagued by missed opportunities and defensive frailties, culminating in their swift return to the Championship. An early goal from Jacob Bruun Larsen gave Burnley hope against Tottenham. However, late strikes from Pedro Porro and Micky van de Ven dashed their survival chances.
If Burnley had managed to hold their lead against Tottenham, Sunday’s match would have been a crucial relegation decider. Instead, the 19th-placed Clarets now aim to surpass Luton Town, who are two points ahead, and finish 18th.
Despite losing just three of their last ten Premier League matches, Burnley’s inability to convert draws into wins has been costly. Historically, they have struggled on the final day, losing their last six Premier League season finales, failing to keep a clean sheet in ten consecutive home games, and scoring the fewest home goals in the league with just 18.
These statistics are encouraging for Nottingham Forest. The visitors were on the verge of securing their top-flight status against Chelsea, with Callum Hudson-Odoi and Willy Boly scoring to cancel out Mykhailo Mudryk’s early strike. However, late goals from Raheem Sterling and Nicolas Jackson thwarted their efforts.
Despite the loss, Forest remain three points clear of Luton Town and need just a draw at Turf Moor to guarantee safety. Even if Forest were to lose, their superior goal difference should suffice unless an unlikely swing occurs in Luton Town’s favor. The Hard Tackle delves into the potential elevens and tactics for this highly-anticipated clash.
Team News & Tactics
Burnley
Burnley hoped Luca Koleosho might return from a knee injury against Tottenham, but he was not risked. He is unlikely to feature on Sunday. Burnley will also be without Nathan Redmond (thigh), Jordan Beyer (thigh), Aaron Ramsey (knee), and Ameen Al-Dakhil (unspecified).
Despite losing to Tottenham, the Clarets played well and Vincent Kompany is likely to retain the side that played on the night. He is also expected to retain the 4-4-2 formation in what will be their last top flight game for at least one year.
Arijanet Muric should start in goal as the last line of defence, protected by the back four of Lorenz Assignon, Dara O’Shea, Maxime Esteve, and Charlie Taylor.
Josh Cullen and Sander Berge should hold the fort in the middle of the park, with Vitinho and Jacob Bruun Larsen providing the width on the flanks. Lyle Foster and Wilson Odobert should start upfront in attack.
Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Muric; Assignon, O’Shea, Esteve, Taylor; Bruun Larsen, Berge, Cullen, Vitinho; Odobert, Foster
Nottingham Forest
Former Liverpool right-back Neco Williams was the only player confined to the treatment room last weekend due to a thigh injury. He has now been joined by Nicolas Dominguez, who is recovering from a hernia operation.
More so, Gonzalo Montiel has been privy to unsavoury accusations but is expected to still play. Nuno Espirito Santo is expected to line his side up in a 4-2-3-1 formation as they aim to end their campaign with a win.
Matz Sels should start in goal behind the defensive quartet of Gonzalo Montiel, Willy Boly, Murillo and Ola Aina. Ryan Yates and Danilo should hold the fort in the middle of the park, with Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi providing the width. Morgan Gibbs-White should don the role of the playmaker, with former Burnley star Chris Wood starting upfront.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Sels; Montiel, Boly, Murillo, Aina; Yates, Danilo; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood
Key Stats
- Nottingham Forest’s away form has been inconsistent, with no clean sheets in their last 13 Premier League games away from home.
- Historically, Burnley have struggled on the final day, losing their last six Premier League season finales, failing to keep a clean sheet in 10 consecutive home games, and scoring the fewest home goals in the league with just 18.
- Burnley have won six of their last seven home games against Nottingham Forest.
- Burnley have lost their last six Matchday 38 games in the Premier League. They last won on the gameweek in 2010 against Tottenham Hotspur.
- Burnley have secured 42 percent of their points tally in the Premier League at home this season, the lowest in the top flight.
Player to Watch
Chris Wood
The veteran striker has missed several gilt edged opportunities of late and will hope to make a difference against his former side. Wood is a solid presence upfront but lacks the killer instinct. Nottingham Forest are unlikely to be at the end of a 12-goal hiding but will aim to still get the job done on the night.
Wood has a good supporting cast behind him and will hope to capitalise on their creativity. An early goal will certainly boost his confidence as he aims to end the campaign on a high.
Prediction
Burnley 1-2 Nottingham Forest
The Clarets have only pride to play for but Nottingham Forest still have to secure their top flight status, at least mathematically. This should give the visitors enough leverage to push on and take the game to their opponents.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s squad has more versatility and quality, giving them the edge on Sunday. The Hard Tackle backs the Tricky Trees to come away with all three points in the bag.