AEK Athens vs Brighton Preview: Prediction, Probable Lineups, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

AEK Athens will host Brighton & Hove Albion in their penultimate group stage clash hoping to take the win to boost their chances of progression.

The Greek outfit have emerged as the surprise package in Group B after the first two games, as they took a healthy lead at the top with four points. Many expected little from AEK Athens in their quest to oust Brighton & Hove Albion, Marseille and Ajax, but things have looked different.

They began the campaign at the back of a stunning victory away at Brighton and then took a point off Ajax. However, back-to-back losses against Marseille have pegged them back into third place, and now they find themselves in a tricky position to qualify for the next round.

Hence, the game against Brighton at home is a must-win for Matias Almeyda and his players. A loss here would end their hopes of qualifying for the knockout stages, as they might head into the last matchday fighting for a spot in the Conference League with Ajax.

Roberto De Zerbi was relieved at the scoreline at the weekend, which saw his side win for the first time in seven Premier League games. Brighton put themselves in pole position against Nottingham Forest with a two-goal advantage around the 60th minute. Things got nervy when Lewis Dunk saw red, and then Morgan Gibbs-White pulled one back. But the Seagulls remained resilient enough to hold that slender lead.

De Zerbi will hope it catapults his team’s form ahead of a crunch period both domestically and in Europe. His Brighton side are in a healthy position in Group B, with a three-point advantage over the next opponent, AEK Athens. A win would guarantee them entry into the next round, but a defeat would complicate matters and put immense pressure on the Seagulls.

Perhaps the Brighton boss will have his players fired up to take revenge on the Greek side following their loss in the reverse fixture. With a victory guaranteeing them passage into the next round, De Zerbi could relax and then focus more on matters in the Premier League in the coming weeks.

Team News & Tactics

AEK Athens

Matias Almeyda will be without first-team stars Harold Moukoudi, Jens Jonsson, and Levi Garcia, recovering from injuries sustained a month back. Meanwhile, first-choice goalkeeper Cican Stankovic returns after serving a suspension and will replace Giorgos Athanasiadis in the Europa League lineup.

Almeyda might also tinker with selecting his main centre-forward for this clash, as several options are available. Steven Zuber is an option, although the striker has scored all of his five goals away from home. At the same time, there is competition from Sergio Araujo and Ezequiel Ponce, with the latter scoring the winner at the Amex earlier in the season.

Zuber will likely lead the line in a pragmatic setup from Almeyda. Damian Szymanski will sit in that lone holding midfield position, with four others ahead of him. Those comprise Nordin Amrabat and Mijat Gacinovic from the wide areas, while Petros Mantalos and Orbelin Pineda are in the central zones.

At the back, Croatian defender Domagoj Vida and Gerasimos Mitoglou will keep their partnership in central defence. Djibril Sidibe is well placed to keep his spot at right back, while Ehsan Hajsafi will emerge from the left-back area.

Probable Lineup (4-1-4-1): Stankovic; Sidibe, Vida, Mitoglou, Hajisafi; Szymanski; Amrabat, Mantalos, Pineda, Gacinovic; Zuber

Brighton

Compared to the three players AEK Athens is missing, Brighton & Hove Albion potentially missing at least ten first-team stars ahead of this trip to Greece. Solly March, Julio Enciso, Danny Welbeck, Pervis Estupinan and Adam Webster are all confirmed absentees.

Kaoru Mitoma, Igor Julio, James Milner, Ansu Fati and Tariq Lamptey will go through late assessments before Roberto De Zerbi makes a call on their selection. The latter two suffered problems during the Nottingham Forest game. So, they are relatively fresh with their issues.

De Zerbi will particularly hope Lamptey will prove his fitness, or else he might have to use Pascal Gross or Jack Hinshelwood as a temporary option at left-back. Mahmoud Dahoud and Lewis Dunk, suspended from domestic action, will play a part in this Europa League fixture.

Carlos Baleba will also feature in midfield, while Facundo Buonanotte will likely take up Mitoma’s place in the lineup if the Japanese winger is deemed unfit. Simon Adingra and Joao Pedro are well-placed to complete the attacking setup, with Evan Ferguson leading the line for Brighton in Athens.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Steele; Veltman, van Hecke, Dunk, Gross; Dahoud, Baleba; Adingra, Pedro, Buonanotte; Ferguson

Key Stats

• AEK Athens have lost their last three home games against English opposition.
• AEK Athens have failed to win any of their last 14 home games in the Europa League
• Brighton & Hove Albion have scored two goals in each of their four UEFA  Europa League games.
• Brighton would become the first English side since QPR in 1976/77, Everton in 2009 and Leicester City in 2020 to score multiple goals in their first five games in European competition.
• Brighton have scored in 25 of their last 26 games across all competitions and have netted twice in a match at least 15 times in that period.

Player to Watch

Joao Pedro

Four goals in as many Europa League games for the Brazilian has set Brighton’s tone in the competition. The Seagulls are still short of finalising a place in the next round and will likely rely on their attacking stars to take them there.

Pedro, in particular, has been immense for them in the Europa League, and in recent games, he has been finding his form with some consistency. Brighton have a good enough defence, but this season, they have been leaky at the back and continually relied on their attacking talents to get the goals and points in crucial games.

Prediction

AEK Athens 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion

AEK Athens winning away at Brighton was a combination of prolific forward play and a leaky Seagulls defence. Roberto De Zerbi will hope to find a balance between the two ends and will want his players to have their moment of revenge in Europe, probably their first in that regard.

AEK Athens’s good start to the campaign means nothing now after their dwindling form in the competition. They might find a way through the Brighton defence, but despite their vast injury list, the Seagulls have the attacking quality to get three points in back-to-back away games in the Europa League.