Birmingham City vs Leeds United Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

Birmingham City and Leeds United will both be aiming for their first win in the Championship this season.

Birmingham City will welcome Leeds United to St. Andrews in their first home game of the EFL Championship season on Saturday. Both sides drew their opening games last weekend and will be keen to get their first win of the campaign.

Birmingham drew 1-1 vs Swansea City while Leeds had to fight back from two goals at home against Cardiff City. In many ways, the latter draw was a testament to the Peacocks’ pattern of late, poor at the back but capable of inspiration up top.

Leeds will be keen to gain promotion to the Premier League this season and cannot afford to drop points, especially against opponents who are not expected to challenge for a playoff spot. Birmingham have a real shot to remind their opponents that life comes at you fast in the second tier and should present them with a solid challenge.

Farke is no stranger to securing promotion having taken Norwich City to the Premier League. While their stay in the top flight did not last long, Leeds will hope that he can work his magic once again to get them back into the big time.

Birmingham finished 17th in the Championship last season and have since invested into the squad this summer. The reinforcements also include Tyler Roberts, who made the switch to St. Andrews from Elland Road. He made his debut for the club last weekend and could now turn out against his former club.

Both teams won their EFL Cup clashes in midweek and will be keen to build momentum as the season gets going. The Hard Tackle looks at how Birmingham City and Leeds United could line up against each other and what tactics they might employ.

Team News and Tactics

Birmingham City

Birmingham City FC have a formidable record at home in their opening league fixtures in recent times. In fact, they have lost just once in their first home game of the campaign in the last 17 years.

While Leeds look formidable on paper, their defensive lapses remain an Achilles heel and could be expiated should Birmingham show some bravery. Having defeated Cheltenham midweek, John Eustace will be keen to make it two wins on the trot across all competitions.

Youngster George Hall is a doubt with an injury, but Birmingham have an otherwise fully fit squad to choose from.  A 4-2-3-1 formation appears to be on the cards, with veteran John Ruddy in goal.

Summer signings Lee Buchanan and Ethan Laird will man the full-back positions, with Kevin Long and Dion Sanderson starting at centre-back. Krystian Bielik and Juninho Bacuna should form the double pivot and will seek to control the tempo following Leeds’ injury concerns in the middle of the park.

Koji Miyoshi should don the number 10 role for the night, with Siriki Dembele and Tyler Roberts providing the width. Scott Hogan is expected to start upfront against a leaky Leeds defence that could be taken down if pressure is properly applied.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Ruddy; Laird, Sanderson, Long, Buchanan; Bacuna, Bielik; Roberts, Miyoshi, Dembele; Hogan

Leeds United

With several injuries to contend with in the squad, Daniel Farke will be hard-pressed to name his strongest XI on the night. Stuart Dallas, Sam Greenwood, Jack Harrison, Patrick Bamford, Cody Drameh, Georginio Rutter, and Junior Firpo are all out injured and also missed the season opener last weekend.

To make matters worse, skipper Liam Cooper is now ruled out with an injury and looks set to miss the next two months. Meanwhile, Tyler Adams’s future is uncertain amid his links with Chelsea, while Wilfried Gnonto is also pushing to leave, further limiting Farke’s options. Joe Rodon’s loan signing does give them some cover at the centre-back spot. But it remains to be seen if he will be thrust right into the starting XI.

This can force the Leeds manager’s hand and have him settle for a 4-2-3-1 formation with Ilian Meslier in goal.  The Frenchman will be protected by the back four of Sam Byram, Pascal Struijk, Charlie Cresswell and Luke Ayling. Summer signing Ethan Ampadu is expected to partner Archie Gray in the double pivot and how well the duo can contend with their Birmingham counterparts could set the stage for how the game plays out. 

Daniel James should keep his spot in the lineup, with last weekend’s hero Crysencio Summerville also starting on the night. This will help Farke deploy Luis Sinisterra as a number 10, capable of linking up well with the aforementioned duo.

Joe Gelhardt is likely to get the nod upfront as Gnonto continues to push for a summer exit. Leeds have conceded first in their two competitive games this season across all competitions. With Cooper unavailable, they are vulnerable at the back and it is a fact that is well known to all competitors. Should Birmingham open the scoring, it could prove to be a frustrating night for the visitors.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Ayling, Cresswell, Struijk, Byram; Gray, Ampadu; Summerville, Sinisterra, James; Gelhardt

Key Stats

• Leeds United and Birmingham City last played a league game against each other in December 2019, where the former prevailed 5-4.
• Leeds and Birmingham have failed to draw a league clash since the 2014-14 campaign. In fact, they have drawn just 2 of their last 25 league games against each other.
• Birmingham have lost just one of their last 17 campaign openers at home. This came against Watford in 2013/14.
• Leeds United have found the back of the net in their last ten games in the league but have failed to win any of them. They are one short of Scunthorpe’s record of 11 matches without a win in which they have scored.
• Daniel Farke has won five of the six games he managed against Birmingham City in the league.

Player to Watch

Charlie Cresswell

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The youngster will be thrust into the playing XI following the injury to skipper Cooper. This should see the 20-year-old get an extended run in the starting lineup and stake a claim for a regular spot.

Leeds have struggled to keep a clean sheet in recent times and have also conceded first in their two games across all competitions this season. Cresswell will need to keep his wits about himself when up against Hogan and how the duel shapes up could decide the outcome of the tie. The last thing the visitors want is to concede early at a packed St Andrews.

Prediction

Birmingham City 1-1 Leeds United

Leeds United’s injury concerns coupled with their inability to defend deep is likely to haunt them on the night. Birmingham have the weaker squad on paper but will be buzzing after their midweek win and home support to boot. Liam Cooper’s absence, in particular, will be felt handing Birmingham a share of the spoils.