Newcastle United vs Southampton Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

Newcastle United will look to punch their ticket into the Carabao Cup final when they welcome Southampton to St. James’ Park on Tuesday.

Southampton will look to gatecrash the Toon party when they make the long trip up north to Tyneside to face Newcastle United at their fortress St. James’ Park on Tuesday night, in what is expected to be the Magpies’ biggest game in decades.

Newcastle United have not been in a domestic cup final since 1999. But a 1-0 away win on the south coast last week moved them one step closer to a trip to Wembley.

It is only half-time in their Carabao Cup encounter. But Eddie Howe’s side have one foot in the showpiece event. Joelinton’s strike at St. Mary’s Stadium has given Eddie Howe’s side a slender lead going into the encounter. But Newcastle were once again guilty of wasting chances that would have put the game out of reach.

Newcastle United’s campaign has been nothing short of miraculous, coming only a year after yet another relentless fight against relegation. They have not just forced their way into the Premier League’s top four, scattering the super powers in the process, but they are also aiming for their first piece of silverware in a long time.

However, standing in their way are a Southampton side that are no pushover and looked lively in spells during the first leg. But they have thus far struggled to climb out of a relegation scrap in the league under Nathan Jones.

To the former Luton Town boss’ credit, the Saints have shown signs of improvement lately and have been decent in cup competitions, upsetting Manchester City in this League Cup run while securing a comfortable passage to the fifth round of the FA Cup with a narrow 2-1 win over Championship strugglers Blackpool.

Nathan Jones’s side will now shift their focus to Tuesday’s second leg, as they have the daunting task of overturning a 1-0 deficit at St. James’ Park. Ahead of kickoff under the lights on Tuesday night, The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at both teams.

Team News & Tactics

Newcastle United

This game feels like an opportunity that Newcastle cannot afford to pass up. With all due respect to Southampton, it seems hugely unlikely the Magpies will ever get quite as good a chance to make it to a cup final, facing a team currently rock bottom of the Premier League and playing in front of a passionate home crowd with a 1-0 lead in the bag.

The good news is that Eddie Howe will have all of his big hitters available to him as he attempts to make history and guide his team to the final. Emil Krafth and Matt Targett are long-term absentees, while Chris Wood and Jonjo Shelvey have departed for Nottingham Forest this month. Blockbuster signing Anthony Gordon is cup-tied and will not be available for selection.

Speaking of selection, Howe’s major selection headache comes up top. Talismanic striker Callum Wilson has not scored since before the World Cup, and Alexander Isak played an instrumental role in setting up Joelinton’s winner. So perhaps the Swede stakes a reasonable claim to start from the get-go.

However, Howe has previously stated that Isak still needs to build up his match sharpness in training. So the club-record signing may have to contend with a spot on the bench. The same can be said about Allan Saint-Maximin, as the former Bournemouth manager is unlikely to alter his winning formula.

Nick Pope has been in sensational form between the sticks, keeping ten consecutive clean sheets in all competitions. As Southampton discovered on Tuesday, when Pope made two outstanding saves, on the rare occasions when Newcastle’s defence was breached, the 6ft 7in shot-stopper stands tall to present an intimidating figure in goal.

There is no looking past the back four of Kieran Trippier, Fabian Schar, Sven Botman, and Dan Burn in the Newcastle rearguard. This combo has conceded just five goals all season, three of which arrived in a 3-3 thriller against Manchester City. So it is fair to say they are rock-solid in every sense of the word.

Sean Longstaff, Bruno Guimaraes, and Joe Willock form a well-balanced midfield trio with a combination of athleticism, monster ball-hunters, passing skills, and movement off the ball. Miguel Almiron’s hot goal-scoring form has cooled down in recent weeks. But the Paraguayan’s work rate and tracking back are second to none, while Joelinton’s positional flexibility and physicality are also vital attributes.

Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Willock; Almiron, Wilson, Joelinton

Southampton

Unlike his counterpart in the Newcastle United dugout, Nathan Jones has a host of injury issues. Valentino Livramento will miss the majority of the season owing to a catastrophic knee injury, while Juan Larios also damaged his knee and has been ruled out. Moussa Djenepo and Alex McCarthy are also doubts for this match, with the latter sustaining a head injury last Tuesday after a hefty collision with Nick Pope.

The Saints’ boss certainly rested a number of key players for Saturday’s FA Cup victory over Blackpool. Indeed, Gavin Bazunu, Kyle Walker-Peters, Mohammed Salisu, and Carlos Alcaraz are all expected to return. Meanwhile, Duje Caleta-Car is free from suspension after serving his ban in the FA Cup at the weekend and may start on Tuesday.

Jones will set his side up in a 4-2-3-1 setup, with Bazunu set to be a busy man in the visitors’ goal. He will be shielded by the central defensive pairing of Lyanco and Caleta-Car, flanked by Salisu and Walker-Peters. Salisu is primarily a centre-back but could play in the left-back role as the Saints look to neutralise Miguel Almiron’s impact on the game.

The midfield will be crucial for Southampton to stop Newcastle’s attacking chains. They will also try to engineer a few interesting opportunities going forward, with set-piece wizard James Ward-Prowse looking to create something out of nothing from dead-ball situations.

Ibrahima Diallo and Carlos Alcaraz will act as high-tempo, energetic box-to-box enforcers in the midfield pivot, with the former being more of an out-and-out destroyer thanks to his snappy tackles and game reading.

Samuel Edozie, who caused all sorts of problems after his introduction as a substitute in the first leg, could be handed a start in attack alongside Mislav Orsic and Sekou Mara. The former Bordeaux youngster has scored only once for the Saints since his arrival. But that was the all-important opener against Manchester City in the EFL Cup quarter-final tie.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Bazunu; Walker-Peters, Lyanco, Caleta-Car, Salisu; Alcaraz, Diallo; Edozie, Ward-Prowse, Orsic; Mara

Key Stats

• Newcastle United have won seven of their last nine matches against Southampton (D1 L1), winning both games against them this season.
• Trailing 1-0 after the defeat at St. Mary’s, Southampton are looking to become only the third team to qualify for a League Cup final after losing the first leg at home.
• Newcastle goalkeeper Nick Pope has kept four clean sheets in the League Cup this season.
• Newcastle have yet to taste a defeat in 13 outings on home turf this season across all competitions (W9 D4) and have not lost in their last 19 home games.
• Newcastle have not conceded a single goal in any of their last eight home games in all competitions, their longest streak of home shutouts. The last Premier League side to keep more clean sheets on the bounce on home turf was Chelsea between January and April 2014 (9).

Player to Watch

Joelinton

It is remarkable to see how Joelinton has turned his Newcastle career around and is already on course to become a cult hero on Tyneside. His jaw-dropping transformation from a goal-shy forward to an absolute bulldozer has run parallel to the Magpies’ own evolution from Premier League relegation-battlers to European contenders.

The Joelinton of old might have shied away from getting himself into scoring positions after missing a horrific four-yard sitter against Southampton last time out. But this beastly version brimming with passion and always determined to succeed as the Brazilian went on to redeem himself and leave the field a hero.

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Tactically, the Brazilian has more to his game than muscling in on opposition players, though there is no doubt he thrives at it. Eddie Howe is starting to deploy the Brazilian on the left flank more and more. Not only does it provide the team with the ideal balance, but Joelinton is proving to be an effective ball carrier with an eye for goal — the perfect link between defence and attack.

Keeping an elite dribbler like Allan Saint-Maximin out of the starting lineup is no easy task; Joelinton is vital to Newcastle, and scoring more goals would transform Joelinton again from a midfielder to a wide attacker, or the first hybrid in the game. He is the one who put Newcastle in the driving seat after the first leg and will be keen to get the job done in front of his supporters.

Prediction

Newcastle United 2-0 Southampton

Newcastle United have the advantage of the home support, plus a 1-0 lead on aggregate over Southampton FC here. They will also benefit from additional rest, receiving a week off between the first and second legs thanks to their FA Cup third-round exit.

Newcastle United have looked too strong for most teams right now, particularly at St. James’ Park where they continue to be in imperious form. Considering all of those factors plus the recent form of both of these sides this season, it is difficult to see anything but the Geordie juggernaut marching on to Wembley (against what will almost certainly be Manchester United).