Aston Villa vs Leeds United Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats

Aston Villa will look to put some daylight between them and the relegation zone when they welcome Leeds United to Villa Park on Friday.

Friday night’s Premier League encounter pits Aston Villa and Leeds United together in a big game in the context of the bottom half of the table, with both sides desperate to push themselves up the ladder.

It feels like Aston Villa have turned a corner, with the Villans’ faithful now right behind Unai Emery following their recent 2-0 victory at top-four hopefuls Tottenham. However, a draw at home to Wolves, followed by a stunning FA Cup exit at home to League Two Stevenage, means they have undone some of the good work prior to that.

Despite suffering a cup upset, Villa have made an excellent recovery since the dismissal of Steven Gerrard and the appointment of Unai Emery. And the Spaniard has guided his side to three victories in their last five league games.

The run has seen Aston Villa rise to the top of the bottom half of the table in the 11th spot, but a defeat against 14th-placed Leeds could well put a dent in their top-ten hopes and see them sucked back into the relegation scrap, with things very tight in the bottom half.

As for Leeds, Jesse Marsch is under immense pressure at Leeds as they remain in the hunt for the first victory since November 5 when they travel to face Aston Villa. While there was a World Cup hiatus in between, the visitors have only won two of their last 16 games, leaving them just two points above the drop zone.

Leeds and Aston Villa played out a dire 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture back in October. But the corresponding fixture last year was a total carnage when Villa scored three goals inside 14 first-half minutes before Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds rallied back and made it 3-3 to earn a point.  Ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides, The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at both teams.

Tactics & Team News

Aston Villa

Unai Emery will have to make do without the services of John McGinn (hamstring). In addition, Leander Dendoncker will serve a one-match suspension after his red card against Stevenage. There are question marks over the participation of Matty Cash (groin) after he picked up a knock in the same match.

Long-term treatment room fixtures Diego Carlos and Jed Steer are making good strides in their recovery and should be fit to play a part in proceedings starting next month. Emery will likely revert to a much more standard unit for this fixture after their cup defeat to Stevenage saw Robin Olsen and Ludwig Augustinsson given rare starts in their preferred positions.

World Cup winner Emiliano Martinez will continue in goal, with Unai Emery’s side lining up in a 4-4-2 set up in front of him. Ezri Konsa will pair up with a resurgent Tyrone Mings at the heart of Villa’s defence, with Ashley Young and Lucas Digne starting as the full-backs.

Left-back Alex Moreno has officially completed his Premier League move to Aston Villa from Real Betis. But the Spaniard will likely be involved off the bench. He will provide quality competition to current first-choice Digne in the long run.

Douglas Luiz and Boubacar Kamara should get the nod again in the engine room, guarding the Villa backline and breaking the lines with their ball progression and slick passing skills.

Morgan Sanson has staked a claim for a place in the starting eleven after an impressive display against Stevenage and could be rewarded with a start as a right-sided midfielder. Meanwhile, Emiliano Buendia will be tasked to stretch the opposition and use his creativity to churn up clear-cut chances for the forwards.

While Danny Ings is the club’s top scorer with six goals, Ollie Watkins will spearhead the Aston Villa attack as he looks to regain his lost mojo. The England international will be supported by Leon Bailey, with Aston Villa banking on him to provide flair and creativity for breaching the Leeds backline.

Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Martinez; Young, Konsa, Mings, Digne; Sanson, Kamara, Luiz, Buendia; Bailey, Watkins

Leeds United

There will be a good number of absentees on Jesse Marsch’s side as well. Archie Gray (ankle) and Stuart Dallas (thigh) are both ruled out for lengthy spells. Meanwhile, young winger Crysencio Summerville (ankle) has also joined the treatment room, and will be sidelined for at least a month.

Aside from that, Luis Sinisterra is eyeing a return after an 11-week injury absence. But the game on Friday is likely to come too soon for the Colombian winger. Meanwhile, Forshaw has missed Leeds’s last two games due to a hip injury and will be assessed late.

On the flip side, Patrick Bamford has made successful recovery after missing Leeds’s past six games, having undergone a groin surgery in Munich. And the English international will travel with the Leeds squad to face Aston Villa.

Leeds are doing their business early in the January transfer window and have all but wrapped up two incomings, with Georginio Rutter set to move to Elland Road in a club-record deal from Hoffenheim after the arrival of defender Maximilian Wober from Red Bull Salzburg. In terms of departures, midfielder Mateusz Klich has left the club to join MLS club DC United.

Back to the matters on the pitch, like Emery, Marsch is also set to deploy a very different eleven to the one that took to the field against Cardiff City in the FA Cup. Illan Meslier is a certainty in the Leeds goal. A back four of Luke Ayling, Robin Koch, club captain Liam Cooper, and Pascal Struijk is expected to start in front of the young French goalkeeper.

Marc Roca and Tyler Adams will walk back into the starting XI to form a midfield double pivot. The vibrant artillery of Brenden Aaronson, Wilfried Gnonto, and Jack Harrison are expected to lead the attack for Leeds United. Finally, the club’s top scorer Rodrigo Moreno will spearhead the buzzing attack as he looks to add to his tally of ten Premier League goals this term.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Ayling, Koch, Cooper, Struijk; Adams, Roca; Aaronson, Gnonto, Harrison; Rodrigo

Key Stats

• Aston Villa are undefeated in their last four Premier League games against Leeds United (W2 D2), keeping three clean sheets in this period.
• The Whites have lost just one of their past six Premier League away games against Aston Villa (W3 D2), a 2-0 defeat in February 2004.
•  Leeds have won just one of their eight away league games this season (D2 L5), a 2-1 victory against Liverpool in October.
• The visitors are conceding an average of over two goals per away game this season, which goes some way to explaining their struggles on the road.
• Rodrigo has netted 40% of Leeds’s Premier League goals this season (10/25), with just Erling Haaland (47%) and Harry Kane (41%), boasting a higher share for their side this term.

Player to Watch

Wilfried Gnonto

Leeds United’s summer recruit Wilfried Gnonto has enjoyed a breakthrough under manager Jesse Marsch. The 19-year-old, who was snapped up at the last minute of the summer transfer deadline day after moves for Bamba Dieng and Cody Gakpo collapsed, has been one of the Whites’ standout performers in recent outings despite being originally signed with the future in mind.

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His four Premier League starts have returned a goal and an assist, while he also started the game against Cardiff City in the FA Cup third round at the weekend. The Italian international has been Leeds’s chief creative threat in games, constantly looking to drive the ball forward by running at his man and asking questions. He is aggressive in possession, even more so off the ball, with his buzzing movement causing problems for opponents.

Gnonto has been one of the few Leeds players who try to make things happen for the Whites, underlining his place in Marsch’s starting XI. He opened his Leeds goal account in style against West Ham, carrying the ball inside and playing a one-two with Crysencio Summerville.

He will hope to add to his goal tally as he looks to carry on the positive momentum against Aston Villa. Still only 19, his stock will only grow with more and more first-team and Premier League exposure, as it looks like Leeds’s recruitment maestro Victor Orta has struck gold in the transfer market yet again.

Prediction

Aston Villa 2-2 Leeds United

With the young guns firing on all cylinders, Leeds United need not lament their injury woes in their attacking department. The Whites have been playing high goal-scoring games in recent weeks. And with both of these teams capable of scoring and susceptible at the back, a highly entertaining stalemate with plenty of clear-cut openings, shots, and eventually, goals look to be on the cards at Villa Park.