Newcastle United will look to round off a remarkable year on a resounding note when they face Leeds United at St. James’ Park on New Year’s Eve.
Newcastle United will look to make it seven Premier League victories in a row and leapfrog Manchester City into second place in the Premier League table this weekend, while Leeds United will be bidding to distance themselves from the relegation zone when two of English football’s fanatical clubs lock horns in what would be a feisty battle at St. James’ Park on Saturday.
The Magpies will look to put the cherry on the cake as they look to cap off what has been a transformative 2022 on a high note at home on New Year’s Eve. They head into the game knowing they will enter 2023 in a Champions League place, regardless of the result against Jesse Marsch’s side.
Newcastle marked their Premier League return in emphatic fashion as they blew away Leicester 3-0 on the road on Boxing Day. In truth, the Magpies made it look easy and boring as they put the game to bed within the first 30 minutes.
The Tyneside outfit have been the surprise package of this season. And that success at the King Power Stadium means the high-flying Magpies have picked up maximum points from each of their last six Premier League fixtures. As a consequence, Newcastle are surveying the standings from the lofty heights of third place ahead of this intriguing clash against Leeds United.
Just seven points behind leaders Arsenal, they are unbeaten in their last 11 league games and have won eight of them. In addition, their well-balanced structure has placed them at the top of the defensive charts with just 11 goals conceded from 16 games.
In stark contrast, Leeds could well end up in another relegation battle this season, currently sitting only a point above the bottom three. The Whites’ supporters were starting to grow impatient with manager Jesse Marsch prior to the Premier League break. But the Leeds manager alleviated the pressure on his shoulders with back-to-back wins over Liverpool and Bournemouth.
The Yorkshire outfit could not have asked for a tougher start to their festive schedule on Wednesday night, as they were defeated 3-1 at home by Manchester City, and now face the Geordie juggernaut. The Hard Tackle now takes a closer look at both teams as they get set to clash at St. James’ Park on Saturday evening.
Team News & Tactics
Newcastle United
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— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) December 29, 2022
In a piece of bad news on the injury front for Eddie Howe, Jonjo Shelvey has suffered yet another setback on his return from a hamstring injury. The 30-year-old could be missing for two months, and this may force Newcastle United’s hand in the transfer market.
Other than that, Emil Krafth, Alexander Isak, and Paul Dummett are all ruled out, while Callum Wilson is a major doubt for this game as he continues to recover from an illness.
Howe is once again expected to set up in a 4-3-3 system that switches to a 3-3-4 when right-back Kieran Trippier marauds forward to create overloads and intricate triangles on the right-flank with Bruno Guimaraes and Miguel Almiron his partners in crime.
Even workhorse midfielder Sean Longstaff at times makes overlapping surges or runs between the opposing centre-back and full-back to provide additional support. It is no wonder majority of Newcastle’s attacks come from the right flank, thanks to excellent interplay and exceptional delivery on Trippier’s right peg.
Speaking of Trippier, the Englishman is only one piece of arguably the best pound-for-pound backline in the division. To put it into context, goalkeeper Nick Pope and defenders Trippier, Fabian Schar, Sven Botman, and Dan Burn have all arrived for a combined £70 million, the same amount, or perhaps even less, as Chelsea spent on Wesley Fofana last summer.
Howe may make one change to his starting XI here, with Allan Saint-Maximin potentially replacing Joe Willock in the team. So the versatile Joelinton will move into a left-sided midfield role. Chris Wood, who played his part against Leicester City by converting a confident penalty, may face his former club if Wilson is not fit to start.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Sean Longstaff, Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton; Almiron, Wood, Saint-Maximin
Leeds United
There were a lot of ifs and buts about what lineup Jesse Marsch would be able to field versus Manchester City. But the majority of the key players made themselves available at the Leeds manager’s disposal. He will be boosted by the return of USMNT midfielder Tyler Adams from suspension as he has been quite effective combining with Marc Roca in the middle of the pitch.
Luis Sinisterra and Archie Gray are still recovering from ankle injuries. Stuart Dallas is still out with a thigh injury, while Patrick Bamford was on the brink of recovering in time to play against Manchester City. The Englishman did not play, although he might make the bench here.
Jesse Marsch may ring a couple of changes here due to the quick turnaround and less recovery time between the Manchester City and Newcastle games, with Crysencio Summerville, Joe Gelhardt, and Diego Llorente all in line to start, while Jack Harrison is also back in contention.
Illan Meslier has been outstanding in goal for Leeds and is expected to be a busy man at St. James’ Park. Rasmus Kristensen, Liam Cooper, Llorente, and Pascal Struijk will form the back four.
Despite their loss against Manchester City, the Whites’ young attack showed flashes of real quality. Headlining that discussion is diminutive Italian wide-forward Wilfried Gnonto, who earned a second consecutive league start against City, and progressed the ball really well in transition for the hosts with his dribbling, pace, and ability to draw fouls.
Gnonto has been a thorn in the side of a lot of teams and has done more than enough to keep his place here, alongside the young attacking midfield trident of pressing-heavy Brenden Aaronson and Summerville, with academy product Gelhardt spearheading the line for the visitors.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Meslier; Kristensen, Llorente, Koch, Struijk; Adams, Roca; Gnonto, Aaronson, Summerville; Gelhardt
Key Stats
- Newcastle have won their last six Premier League games, the longest such streak dating all the way back to September/October 1996 (7), when Kevin Keegan was the manager.
- Leeds are undefeated in their last three away league fixtures against Newcastle (W1 D2), they’ve never gone four without a defeat at St James’ Park before.
- Newcastle haven’t won their final league match in any of the past five calendar years (D4 L1), with their last victory being in the Championship in 2016 when they defeated Nottingham Forest 3-1.
- Only Liverpool (45) and Manchester City (43) have earned more home points than Newcastle (40) in the English top flight in 2022.
- Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in five of their last seven Premier League matches.
Player to Watch
Miguel Almiron
Oh, Jack Grealish! You’ve unlocked an absolute goal machine that only scores beautiful goals. Newcastle’s Paraguayan midfielder Miguel Almiron is playing some of the best football of his career, and his new-found goalscoring form may catapult Newcastle back into European contention or possibly make them title contenders.
The speedster has scored nine goals in his last 14 Premier League games, as many as he had in his first 112 appearances in the competition. Such ridiculous levels of improvement in output and Arjen Robben-esque left-footed goals have made him a genuine Premier League sensation.
Many feared that Almiron’s form would suffer as a result of the international break for the World Cup. However, the 28-year-old scored his fifth goal in his past eight outings for the Magpies against Leicester.
Nicknamed the “Wor Miggy,” he only needs one more goal in the Premier League to move into a double-digit goal tally for the season. And it will not be a surprise to see the South American attacker achieve that feat against a fragile Leeds defence on New Year’s Eve in front of the St James’ Park faithful.
Prediction
Newcastle United 3-1 Leeds United
Both teams boast a front-foot strategy out of possession. Newcastle are masters at forcing high turnovers and capitalising on them, while Leeds leads the pack in terms of pressing intensity. However, Eddie Howe’s side are implementing this aggressive tactic significantly more successfully than their forthcoming leaky opponents. Plus, Leeds will have less recovery time from their last outing.
This could be an intriguing, highly intense, full-throttle affair, with both sets of fans in for a wild ride; however, like hosts’ boss Eddie Howe when he was at Bournemouth, Jesse Marsch’s gung-ho approach has a bit of naivety about it, and Leeds’s highly open and offensive style could play straight into the hands of the home team and Almiron, who likes to exploit pockets of space in opposing defences.
Further, Newcastle are deadly on transitions and should be able to expose Leeds’ energetic, but hardly resilient, rearguard. For that reason, The Hard Tackle predicts a highly entertaining 3-1 win for the hosts to continue their unlikely top-four, or, dare we say, Premier League title charge. But Manchester City might remain second when they face Everton simultaneously.