The Netherlands have long been considered one of the biggest, if not arguably the biggestAi??underachievers in international football. They have consistently produced top quality players throughout their history, from Coen Moulijn to Marco van Basten, from Johan Cruijff to Dennis Bergkamp to Arjen Robben. They faltered at the final step in the last edition of the World Cup, losing to an Andres Iniesta goal late into stoppage time — the mention of which does elicit the sound of breaking Dutch hearts, even now. Three times, they’ve reached the finals and three times they’ve lost the final.Ai??Here’s an analysis of the Oranje’s chances in Rio this summer.
Strengths
The biggest strength of this relatively weak Dutch squad is the manager. Recently appointed by Manchester United, though he has forbidden the press from probing him about the English club (a note to journalists: don’t pick a fight with this man), Louis van Gaal is a master tactician who famously devised two tactical victories over Fabio Capello’s brilliant Milan side back in 1995-96. Coincidentally, van Gaal will be reviving similar tactics as he looks to get the Dutch through an extremely difficult group — having failed to even get them to the World Cup in his previous time as Dutch national manager.
It looks like a 5-3-2 on paper, but on the field — like we saw in the friendly against Ecuador — it ends up more like a 3-5-2, with the wingbacks pushing high up, as they proved the only semblance of width in this formation. The Dutch are in between two generations now: the Robben, van Persie, Sneijder generation, and the younger Strootman (unfortunately unavailable), Blind, Depay, de Vrij generation, with the former exuding immense experience, having lit up the top leagues in Europe and the latter, full of promise and energy but little know-how, maturity or calm nerves. With only Ron Vlaar above 25 among the defenders who look likely to start, the Dutch defence is especially inexperienced, but playing with a 5-3-2 means most mistakes can be made up for.
That also means this team is devoid of the ego issues that plagued the Oranje at Euro 2012, with established leaders, more unity and less self-centredness.
Weaknesses
There are many weak points to this Dutch squad, but the biggest one arises in the form of Kevin Strootman’s absence. Louis van Gaal’s most used player since he took over the reins, Strootman is one of the better central midfielders of his generation, with fantastic awareness, visionary passing and equally strong offensive and defensive abilities. His loss is highlighted by the fact that van Gaal has had to revert formations because no one else can fill the all-round role he plays in the 4-3-3 the Dutch were looking to go with. He is also a leader on the pitch, even only at 24, and would have made an extremely formidable partnership with Nigel de Jong.
Another Achilles heel is the apparent suffocation of the attack in the 5-3-2 system. Robben and van Persie look to start up front, both left-footed players, having never played striker with each other before, and it is extremely hard to hide the fact that Robben is best at what he does down the right flank, where he can hug the touchline or cut in and shoot with that left foot of his. In this sense, it could be a stifling of Robben’s inherent nature to drift wide if he is asked to stay central in his striker role.
This also ties in with the next weakness, being the Dutch fullbacks. In a 5-3-2, their job is perhaps the most demanding, and while Daley Blind and Daryl Janmaat have proven to be fantastic fullbacks in attack, neither is defensively extremely stable and if they lack the energy to keep going at full steam for 90 minutes, and without a winger to double up for them, it could hurt the Netherlands. While Daley Blind looks likely to start based on experience, he is not a wingback, in plain terms, and is generally much better controlling in midfield — a position taken up by de Jong at the moment. This may mean the young Terence Kongolo could start on the left or, depending on how van Gaal wants his central defence organised, even Martins Indi.
Moreover, the team as a whole relies too much upon van Persie and Robben to score — being captain and vice captain respectively. Way too much of the hopes of the team depends upon these two and their form in the World Cup. Huntelaar and Depay are worthy backups and could change the game, but Robben and van Persie really have the pressure of a nation — albeit a small, reclaimed nation — on their shoulders, with Sneijder fading away in the last few years and the lack of a real game changer in the likely starting XI.
The inexperience of the youngsters could pan out in a bad way too, as Joel Veltman and Stefan de Vrij showed against Ecuador, de Vrij allowing the attacker to pass ahead of him and Veltman misjudging the ball and allowing it to roll past him into the path of his opponent.
Opportunities
It is slightly humorous to see some still touting the Netherlands as a favorite for the Cup simply based on 2010, despite the fact that they have one of the toughest groups and a team without, arguably, its most important player in Strootman. Following on from how Frank de Boer’s Ajax beat Barcelona — albeit not a full-strength Barcelona side — earlier in the season, van Gaal will be looking and re-visiting his disciple’s tactics in order to get the better of Spain and their passing. Having been a proponent of the fluid passing game himself, van Gaal’s tactical acumen gives the Netherlands a chance against the defending champions they would otherwise not have.
Getting past Australia should not be too big of a problem, but the Oranje could be in hot water against Chile, who are looking to be quite the surprise package in this edition of the World Cup, competing with title of “hipsters’ favorite” alongside Belgium and Colombia. Chile also play with three at the back, with Juventus star Vidal sitting in front of them in a position that can turn out to be extremely dangerous. With Alexis Sanchez and Eduardo Vargas in attack, the Dutch defence should have its hands full against the South American team.
A win against Australia and one of Chile or Spain could be enough to send them to the next round, but even if the Netherlands make it past the group, they are likely to meet Brazil, the hosts, who are the biggest favorites for the title. Thus, it would not be particularly wise to put your money on the Dutch winning the entire thing.
Threats
The lack of experience in the backline could yet prove crucial, and if van Gaal opts for the third centreback to play a more attacking sweeper-esque role, going with Veltman or even Blind ahead of Vlaar, any loss in possession in midfield could prove to be costly.
Moreover, as already expounded on previously, the biggest threat against this Oranje side will come from down the flanks where the wingbacks are quite exposed, and if need be, van Gaal might be forced into reverting to a 4-3-3, a formation that all the domestic Eredivisie players are used to and the older players can easily revert back to, having been nurtured in the system.
The midfield of Clasie-de Jong-Sneijder is one that is extremely vertically challenged — an average height of only 1.71m. Though both Spain and Chile prefer playing ground balls — the former relatively vertically challenged, too — should either choose to drift in balls from deep, the Dutch midfielders will have to make sure their leaps make up for their height.
Ultimately, it’s doubtful that even Louis van Gaal is extremely convinced of his side’s chances in Rio this summer, but he could be looking at this as a chance to give key youngsters like de Vrij, Blind, Clasie and Depay a taste of international football at its highest level, something that could go a long way in Ai??helping this young team fare much better at Euro 2016, when the likes of Robben and van Persie will be gone and it will be up to Strootman, Blind and de Vrij to step up and lead their generation — which is absolutely oozing talent. This World Cup could be another passing over of the baton for the Netherlands, rather than a winning sprint.
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